據臺灣的自然災害及生產量統計，以及先前研究者的分析結果所顯示，稻米價格之不
穩定來源並不是單位供給不穩定所導致的。本文在第二章稻米市場庫存與價格之研究
中發現，對價格不穩定的最主要因素為除供需變化之外，與糧政目標之庫存量變動有
關。因此，本文所設定之研究目的除瞭解臺灣稻米市場的供需、價格和庫存結構之外
，亦測定庫存結構改變對稻米市場價格的影響，及尋求價格和庫存量之最適成長途徑
．
本文在理論模型中設立價與庫存間的關係。在其他經濟環境不變之情況下，若政府部
門的庫存量轉移至民間部門，會導致未來預期價格之下降效果；換言之，為減輕公有
庫存過多所產生的財政負擔，若政府拋政公糧，則預期價格隨著下降。在此假說下，
本文透過公、有庫存需理論建立臺灣稻米市場的計量模型，以二階段最小平分法（2S
LS）估計其量模型，結果發現模型之配適度、各變數之係數符號等呈現相當良好，亦
十分符合理論及實際現象。不過，此計量模型無法充反應自1973年至1976年之間所發
生的臺灣稻米產業結構性變化，故本文利用變更參數（Yaring Parameter）結估計法
與脊迴歸（ridger egression）進一步分析結構性變化所產生的特徵．
為驗證在理論型中所設立之假說，本文利用最適控制理論中二次方追蹤原理，設定目
標值時所考慮的主要客觀條件為糧食安全存量水準，經建會的臺灣經濟建設六年計劃
，以及既定的稻米收購政策和生產政策。在上述條件之下，庫存結構之改變在未來四
年之間對各價格因素之影響頗大，尤以考慮結構性變化後之價格函數估計的結果更明
顯．
綜合以上之分析結果可歸納得如下之結論及涵意：
ⅰ）轉型期前後之比較分析顯示，在消費需求函數中所得因素的估計係數符號不同，
即1973年以前臺灣稻米為之消費正常財，但自1974年以後變為劣等財．
ⅱ）由價格函數分析得知，自1974年之轉型期以後公有庫存量對價格的影響力大幅增
加，私有庫存量則否．
ⅲ）在既定的生產和收購政策之下，若被庫存的產品為劣等財，則私人庫存無法以價
格波動予以活化，故政府庫存將是扮演更主要之角色．
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In accordance with the statistics of natural disasters and production
as well as the previous analysis made by the researchers, the origin of
price instability for the rice in Taiwan is not unique source of unsteady
supply. In the Chapter II: The Study on the rice stocks and price, it
could be found that the change of supply or request is not single factor
to cause unsteady price, besides, it is related to toeh fluctuations in
stocks based on the object of grains policy. Hereon, this study is made
for the purposes of understanding supply, demand, price and storage
structure of rice market in Taiwan, in addition, it is also made to test
the effects to rice price under change of stock structure and seek the
best appropriate way in growth for the price and stocks.
This study is made for setting relationship between price and stock
upon the theoretical framework. If the stocks of authority concemed shall
transfer to the private under the condition of economic environment has no
any change, it will cause the expected price the lower down in the future;
however, if the government intervene it in the market, the expected price
will be raised by following with the level of intervention taken by the
government. In other words, if government decides on the release of
government inventories for reducing the financial burden due to overstock,
the expected price will lower down accordinly. Under this hypothesis, an
econometric model for rice market in Taiwan is established upon the theory
of public/private stock & demand, and that is to estimate the econometric
model by OLS and 2SLS methods. The estimated result showing that R2, and
coefficients of variables are corresponding with the economic theory and
reality. However, this econometric model is unable to show the structural
alteration of rice industry in Taiwan for the period from 1973 to 1976
completely, thus, this study is hereby made to analyze the characteristics
caused by structural change further by using varying parameter model and
ridge regression.
For testing the hypothesis given in the theoretical model, this study
is made by adopting with quadratic tracking approach in the optimal
control theory. As setting up the goal value, it is necessary to consider
main objective conditions, such as foods security, level of stocks, 6-year
economic plan of Council of Economic Construction and prearranged rice
official purchase policy as well as production program. Upon those
conditions, the alteration of stock structure will bring great effects to
each price in the future for four years; in particulars, it is distinctly
remarkable in estimating results by varying parameter method.
To conclude the analysis and results mentioned above, this is hereby
to summarize as follows:
(1) As comparing and analyzing the condition of rice secter during turning
period, it shows that the estimated coefficient sign of income
variable in demand function is different, namely, the rice is normal
goods before 1973, but it is inferior goods after 1974.
(2) As analyzing the price function, it shows that the retail price has
been increasingly influenced by government inventories since 1974 for
the turning periods, however, it has been influenced by private
storage vice versa.
(3) Under the prearranged production and official purchase policy, without
loss of generality, if the inventoried products have been regarded as
inferior goods, the private storage function could not be active owing
to price fluctuation, therefore, the government stockpile should
gradually play an more important role.