臺灣人文及社會科學引文索引資料庫系統

:::

詳目顯示

回上一頁
第 1 筆 / 總合 1 筆   第一頁 上一頁 下一頁 最後一頁
/1頁
題名：計畫風險事件之處置--分析模型之建立與應用
作者：范淼 引用關係
作者(外文)：Fan, Miao
校院名稱：國立臺灣大學
系所名稱：商學研究所
指導教授：林能白
學位類別：博士
出版日期：1999
主題關鍵詞：計畫風險管理；風險處置；風險處置成本；project risk management；risk handling；risk handling cost
原始連結：連回原系統網址new window
相關次數：
  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(1) 博士論文(1) 專書(1) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:1
  • 共同引用共同引用:0
  • 點閱點閱:49
過去的研究中，大都從程序管理的觀點，探討計畫之風險管理，並將之區分為風險界定、風險評估、風險分析、以及風險處置等四個階段，其中，只有風險處置具有降低計畫風險的效果；然而，這一部份的研究卻十分少見，多數的研究都在於探討計畫管理者，如何經由風險之界定、評估、以及分析等階段後，做出方案選擇的決策，至於所選定之方案中的風險，則假定其無法改變，也就是說，不考慮風險處置。本研究則是以計畫之風險事件為分析單位，探討計畫管理者在面臨所選定方案中之風險事件時，如何選擇適當的風險處置以降低計畫之風險。
根據風險的定義與實務上的觀察，可將風險處置可以區分為風險預防與風險適應兩類行為。本研究先以個案研究方法，觀察計畫中的風險事件及其與兩類處置行為間的關係，發現對選擇風險處置有影響的因素，包括風險事件的可控程度、計畫特性、以及風險處置成本等，再根據此一觀察結果，建立一個風險處置成本的分析模型，對模型進行最適化分析後，應用分析的結果探討計畫管理者應如何選擇適當的風險處置行為，才能以最低的處置成本達到降低風險的目標。
研究的結果發現，當風險事件的可控程度很低時，應傾向於採用風險適應行為；但當風險事件之可控程度高時，則需視計畫與事件的特性而定；若風險事件的複雜度愈低、計畫執行環境的彈性愈小、資金與時程愈緊迫、事件風險所可能造成的損失規模愈大，則愈傾向於採取風險預防行為。
本研究的研究發現，在理論上，建立了一個風險處置的分析性模型，用以分析計畫管理者在面臨風險時，如何選擇風險處置外，對未來的研究而言，亦建立了一個較廣的觀點來探討計畫之風險管理；此外，在計畫風險管理實務上亦具有相當的參考價值。
Project risk management are generally considered as a procedure, which consists of several phases including risk identify, risk assessment, risk analysis, and risk handling. Among these phases, only risk handling has the effect of reducing project risk level. Nevertheless, most of the project risk management researchers focus on identifying, assessing, and analysis the risk, and making a choice among those specified alternatives. The possibility of handling the risky events to reduce the risk level was ignored by those researchers.
According to the results of case study, two risk-handling strategies: risk preventive and risk adaptive was defined. The case study also finds the selection between those two strategies is based on the consideration of handling cost. To describe and analysis the risk handling selection, an analytic model was build, which the associated cost of the strategy was included. The optimum solution, which means the least cost handling strategy, and its implications was also discussed.
The main findings of this research are: 1.As the controllability is law the selection should incline to risk adaptive. 2.As the controllability is high the selection should consider the event and project characters. The less complicated the event is, the less flexible the environment is, the tighter the budget and schedule is, and the larger the loss that caused by the event is the selection should incline to risk preventive. The project management implications of these findings are also discussed.
1. Aderson, R. M., "Handling risk in defense contracting" , Harvard Business Review, 1969,July-Aug.:90-98.
2. Allen, T. J., & P. Oregon, "Project Management Risk, Strategy and Structure in the Nuclear Industry : A Historical Perspective", Project Management Journal , 1990, 21: 21-30.
3. Baillie, S. A., "Management of Risk and Uncertainty", Research Management, 1980, March: 20-24
4. Baird, I. S., "Toward a Contingency Model of Strategic Risk Taking", Academy of Management Review, 1985,30(2): 230-243
5. Baumol, W. J., Economic theory and operations analysis, 4th edi.,PRENTICE-HALL, Englewood, 1977.
6. Belev, G. C., "Minimizing Risk in High Technology Programs", AACE Transaction, 1990, May:6.1-6.7
7. Berger, J. O., Statistical decision theory & Bayesian analysis, 2nd edi. , Springer-Verlag, N.Y., 1985.
8. Blanchard, B, S, System engineering management, John-Wiley & Sons, N.Y. ,1991
9. Bourgeois III, L.J., "On the Measurement of Organizational Slack", Academy of Management Review, 1981, 6(1): 29-39
10. Bromiley, P., & S. P. Curley, "Individual differences in risk taking", in Yates, J. F., edited Risk-taking behavior, Ch4., Pp.87-121, John-Wiley & Sons, N.Y. ,1992.
11. Chapman, C., & S. Ward, Project risk management-Process, techniques and insights, John-Wiley & Sons, N.Y. , 1997.
12. DSMC, 1986. Risk management-concept and guidance, DSMC press, VA.
13. Eisenhardt, K. M., "Building theories from case study research", Academy of Management Review, 1989, 14(4) :584-602.
14. Gersick, C. J. G., "Time and transition in work teams: Toward a new model of group development", Academy of Management Journal, 1988, 31(1):9-41.
15. Glaser, B. G., & A. L. Strauss, The discovery of grounded theory-Strategies for qualitative research , Aldine de Gruyter: N.Y.,1967.
16. Gioia, D. A., & Pitre Evelyn, "Multiparadigm Perspectives on Theory Building", Academy of Management Review, 1990, 15(4):584-602
17. Hottenstein, M. P., & Dean Jr., "Managing Risk in Advanced Manufacturing Technology", California Management Review, 1992, summer :112-126
18. Kerzner, H.,. Project management-A systems approach to planning , scheduling and controlling, 5th edi., VAN., New York, 1995.
19. MacCrimmon, K R., & D. A. Wehrung, Taking Risks-The Management of Uncertainty, THE FREE PRESS,New York , 1986.
20. March, J.G.,& Z. Shapira, "Managerial Perspectives on Risk and Risk Taking", Management Science, 1987, 33(11): 1404-1418
21. McKee, D.O., Varadarajan, P. R., & Pride, W. M., "Stratigic Adaptability and Firm Performance : A Market-Contingent Perspective", Journal of Marketing, , July 1989, 53:21-35
22. McKim, R. A., "Risk Management - Back to the Basic", Cost Engineering, 1992, 34(12): 7-12.
23. Meredith, J. R., & Mantel Jr., S. J., Project Management-A Managerial Approach , 3rd edi., John Wiley & Sons , Singapore, 1995
24. Mustafa, M. A., "Project Risk Assessment Using the Analytic Hierarchy Process", IEEE Transactions on Engineering Managemen, 1991, 38(1): 46-52.
25. Project Management Institute, 1996, Project Management Body of Knowledge, PMI press., PA.
26. Shapira, Z., Risk taking: A managerial perspective, Russell Sage Foundation: N. Y., 1995.
27. Shenhar, A., "Project Management Style and Technological Uncertainty (Part 1) : From Low- to High-Tech.", Project Management Journal, 1991,22(4): 11-37.
28. Shrade-Frechette, K. S., Risk Analysis and Scientific Method, D. Reidel, 1985
29. Shtub, A., Bard, J., & Globerson, S., Project management-Engineering, Technology, and Implementation , Prentice-Hall, London, 1994
30. Sitkin, S. B., "Reconceptualizing the Determinants of Risk Behavior", Academy of Management Review, 1992, 17(1): 9-38.
31. Stigler, G. J. , "The Economics of Information", The Journal of Political Economy, 1961,59(3): 213-225
32. Tsai, T., Risk Identification in Major Weapon Systems Acquisition in The Republic of China Air Force, Unpublished master degree thesis of Air University, Ohio, U.S.A., Sep 1992.
33. Wehrung, D.A., K. Lee, D. K. Tse, & I.B. Vertinsky, "Adjusting risky situations: A theoretical framework and empirical test", Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 1988, 2:189-212.new window
34. Whetten, D. A., "What Constitutes a Theoretical Contribution?", Academy of Management Review, 1989,14(4): 490-495
35. Yates, J. F., Risk-taking behavior , John-Wiley & Sons, N.Y. ,1992
36. Yates, J.F., & E. R. Stone, "The risk construct", in Yates, J. F., edited Risk-taking behavior, Ch1., Pp.1-26, John-Wiley & Sons, N.Y. ,1992
37. Yin, R. K., 1994, Case Study Research-Design and Methods , 2nd edi. , CA, SAGE.
 
 
 
 
第一頁 上一頁 下一頁 最後一頁 top
QR Code
QRCODE

臺灣人文及社會科學引文索引資料庫

目前上線人數：571（臺灣：552，外國：19） ／ 本年度總使用人次：2344557 ／ 訪客人次（自102年09月）：68151276
國家圖書館著作權聲明 Copyright © 2013 All rights reserved.
本館地址: 100201臺北市中山南路20號． 本館地圖及交通資訊．
總機：(02)23619132．最佳瀏覽解析度為1024x768以上