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題名:在考慮健康風險下台灣主要食用油脂完整需求體系之動態分析
作者:張世明
校院名稱:國立中興大學
系所名稱:農業經濟學系
指導教授:彭作奎
學位類別:博士
出版日期:2000
主題關鍵詞:動態分析食用油脂
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
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近十五年來隨著台灣經濟發展與社會繁榮,國人日益注重健康的飲食觀念和烹調方式。由於國內市場在農產品貿易政策趨於進口開放情況之下,消費者不僅可多樣化選購所需產品,大眾傳播媒體亦傳遞健康相關訊息,以提供消費者選擇有益於健康的產品消費決策之參考。
食用油脂為家庭烹飪不可或缺的必需品,日常烹調飲食所攝取之食用油脂含有多種脂肪酸,係構成身體細胞內脂質質的重要來源,惟其熱能為蛋白質或碳水化合物的兩倍以上,消費者如攝取過多食用油脂,將導致人體內膽固醇累積,形成腦心血管疾病之健康風險。
基於食用油脂與消費者飲食息息相關,因此本文之首要研究目的在於分析油脂需求之互補或替代關係及產品性質;其次,將測定健康風險對食用油脂需求結構所產生之影響,並探討各項油脂價格及支出變化對其營養成份需求之影響程度。為達成上述研究目的,本文首先建構與脂肪及膽固醇有關的累計指數(CNO)、依幾何遞減權數函數設定之健康風險訊息指數(GW20),分別納入Lewbel一般化需求體系模型之中,加以估測模型係數及需求彈性值。由於發表於醫學相關期刊之文獻為健康風險訊息之最初來源,因此依上述醫學文獻篇數編算健康風險訊息指數,可視為向消費者傳遞脂肪及膽固醇對健康具有負面影響之重要訊息指標。茲將主要研究結果摘要如下:
(一)大豆油及菜籽油需求之誤差修正方程式估計結果顯示,
自77年第3季國內油脂市場開放進口後,已引起大豆油
需求量減少、菜籽油需求量增加之結構變動。當其他條
件不變之下,大豆粉粕產量增加、所得提高及匯率升值,
均將導致大豆油與菜籽油之引申需求增加,尤其以前一
期之零售價格及匯率變化具較大影響力。
(二)在各主要油脂互補或替代關係之顯著性及其產品性質等
方面,棕櫚油對豬油、沙拉油對葵花油及椰子油對豬油之 間彼此呈顯著互補關係,沙拉油及葵花油則為豬油之替 代品;沙拉油、豬油、葵花油及椰子油均屬正常財,棕櫚油屬於劣等財。國內平均每戶家庭規模逐年略減,將引起沙拉油、豬油及葵花油需求量隨之降低,惟將造成棕櫚油與椰子油需求量提高,主因為消費者對加工或油炸食品需求量增加所致。
(三)依據各項油脂營養素需求彈性估計結果,消費者攝取膽
固醇需求量除不受沙拉油零售價格漲跌影響外,各項油
脂零售價格漲跌將導致消費者增加或減少其不同油脂營
養素需求量。植物油雖不含膽固醇,惟受各項油脂需求
相互依存關係之影響,以致特定油脂零售價格上漲時,
引起消費者自豬油攝取部分膽固醇。隨著消費者所得提
高,除導致國內每人平均之飽和脂肪酸需求量約減少0.094
%外,亦將造成其單元不飽和脂肪酸、多元不飽和脂肪
酸及膽固醇需求量約分別增加0.021%、0.453%、0.168%。
(四)健康風險訊息對豬油及棕櫚油需求量變化百分比產生負
面影響,尤以豬油之健康風險訊息需求彈性約-0.58較為
顯著,葵花油、沙拉油及椰子油之健康風險訊息需求彈
性各約為0.993、0.167與0.121,表示消費者受健康風險
訊息影響,以致葵花油、沙拉油及椰子油需求量增加。
(五)事後模擬及情境模擬結果顯示隨著時間經過,消費者受
健康風險訊息的影響,民國83年第1季國內豬油需求
量變動百分比為-9.79%,至88年第1季則降低為-11.59%
之最大比率,棕櫚油、椰子油及沙拉油需求量受影響百
分比各由-3.24%、-1.32%和1.48%減少至-7.76%、-5.36%
和-3.4%。葵花油油需求量受健康風險訊息影響之百分
比,則分別自83年第1季的1.94%及-2.41%至88年第
1季擴增10.47%,88年第1季主要食用油脂需求量受健
康風險訊息影響之幅度及其百分比估計各約為-0.45公斤
和-4.35%。
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