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題名：兩岸空運直航航點選擇策略之研究
作者：熊正一
作者(外文)：Shon, Zheng-Yi
校院名稱：國立成功大學
系所名稱：交通管理學系
指導教授：張有恆
林正章
學位類別：博士
出版日期：1999
主題關鍵詞：兩岸直航；航空運輸；航點選擇；競爭策略；市場佔有率；最小成本流量問題；中位問題；網路規劃；Direct Flights Across Taiwan Strait；Air Transportation；Hub Location；Competitive Strategy；Maket Share；Min-Cost Flow Problem；P-Median Problem；Network Planning
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一九八八年開放大陸探親以來，每年在兩岸出入的上百萬旅客，為中、港、澳、台四地間的航線帶來了上千億新台幣的商機。預計在二十一世紀的最初十年，兩岸的空中交通運輸將可望成為亞洲地區航空客運最大的市場。由於政治議題的糾葛，現階段所有的兩岸旅次都必須透過港澳地區中轉。這種運作模式雖然使得部份握有台港、台澳、及中港、中澳航權的航空公司獲取了龐大的商業利益，但同時也造成了旅客極大的不便。在龐大的旅運需求壓力與兩岸政治情勢逐漸和緩的情勢下，兩岸空運直航的未來似已露出一片曙光。
然而未來兩岸空運直航究竟應該如何進行，產官學研各界卻一直缺乏較為深入的探討和分析。其中最基本也是最關鍵的當屬直航航點選擇的問題。換言之，在大陸數十個對外開放的國際機場當中，最適合用來做為直航機場究竟有那些，應該是台灣未來推動直航政策在技術及政策層面上首先必須確定，並達成內部共識的主要議題。
有鑑於此，本研究首先基於實務運作的可能方式，架構出兩岸直航的可能決策流程；同時並根據不同的決策目標，設計出兩岸直航的最佳航點選擇模式，然後再藉由決策模式進行航點選擇的策略分析。研究先以政府的政策目標做為決策基礎，利用數學規劃模式的構建，以最小旅行成本來分析符合整體利益的直航航點選擇策略。決策模式基本保留了中位問題的架構與網路問題的特性，從而使得問題的複雜程度得以大幅降低。針對此一特性，研究亦設計一相應之求解演算法。實證分析中，各資料項均以兩岸官方所公佈的有關統計數據為主，無法取得的也以合理的研究方法推估求得。根據研究結果顯示，未來兩岸航空客運的部份，依序應以上海、廣州、深圳、廈門、福州、杭州等數個城市為優先通航的航點。而從實證分析中也可看出，香港和澳門雖然可以繼續發揮部份的轉運功能，但嚴重衰退的旅次量將使其所扮演之中轉角色重要性大幅下降。
除了以最小旅行成本的角度來分析直航航點的選擇策略之外，研究也設計了一產業競爭模式，利用個體選擇理論來構建航空公司於直航市場中的競爭模型。此一模型主要是利用消費者選擇機率來探討市場佔有率的觀念，同時並利用已知的旅行效用函數型態在巢式羅吉特函數中求解變數值，來分析廠商的決策行為。研究發現在各種外在經營環境的限制下，不同規模的航空公司將有不同的選點策略；而不同的經營哲學也將帶來不同的決策結果。此外，研究也結合政府政策與航空公司經營策略之間的不同考量，以階層性的決策關係進行整體均衡的分析。其結果也顯示，部份航點確實在未來的直航市場中具有較大的潛力，值得做為各方決策時的參考依據。
Since the government in Taiwan allowed some informal and private contacts with China in 1988, millions of passengers across Taiwan Strait has created billions of money for air carriers among China, Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan. This so-called Great China market would probably be the busiest one with most passenger volume in Asia in the coming decade. Currently, all the travelers across Taiwan Strait are still transit in Hong Kong or Macau for some political reasons. As a result, specific carriers which holds service quota in this area are earning considerable profits, and the travelers are suffering lots of inconveniences. It is widely believed that direct flights across Taiwan Strait would be an inevitable policy to both sides in the near future because of the huge travel demand and the progress made in cross-strait relations.
However, there were only some few researches focused in this important topic in the past years. One of the fundamental issues is hub selection. Among the 40 qualified candidates in China, some useful and helpful airports should be firstly considered to serve the cross-strait passengers, and the methodology of hub selection should also be developed. This is just one of the problems that should be well settled before formal cross-strait negotiations start.
Base on the observation and assumption in real operations, this research has developed a model which describes the process of hub selection. Some decision models with different objectives have then been created under the conceptual structure. The selection strategies were thus be analyzed following the decision model. The first decision model to be created is the government decision model which is assumed to minimize the total travel cost including time value wasted in transit. Some median problem structures and network problem structures which have successfully reduced the problem complexities are left in the model. An efficient algorithm to solve the problem can then be developed. In practical analysis, all the data used in this research were government statistics unless some unreachable ones which have also been predicted carefully. According to the research outcome, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Zhenzhen, Xiamen, Fuzhou, Hangzhou in order should be selected to be the hub and connected with Taiwan directly. Moreover, Hong Kong and Macau that provide transit services are also found less important in passenger market after direct flights start services.
In addition to the cost minimizing model, a maximizing profit or market share model using choice probabilities is also created in this research. Some nested Logit models with pre-defined utility functions are used as market share indexes. Based on airliners’ interest, these decision models have shown that different scale and management philosophy can change the best decisions a lot. Finally, some integrated analysis with hierarchy structure that combined the different decision models discussed above are introduced. It has shown that some airports in China are easily to be chosen as a transit hub with direct flights across Taiwan Strait. These airports with very high potential should be considered to be connected firstly as the research suggested.
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