1979-87年美國貨幣政策：伏克爾時期聯準會政策措施__臺灣人文及社會科學引文索引資料庫

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題名：	1979-87年美國貨幣政策：伏克爾時期聯準會政策措施
作者：	曾芳明
作者(外文)：	James Fangming Tzeng
校院名稱：	淡江大學
系所名稱：	美國研究所
指導教授：	林志鴻
學位類別：	博士
出版日期：	2001
主題關鍵詞：	聯準會；伏克爾；貨幣主義；貨幣總計數；緊縮貨幣；通貨膨脹；獨立性；主從關係；the Fed；Volcker；monetarism；monetary aggregate；tight money；inflation；independence；principal-agent
原始連結：	連回原系統網址
相關次數：	被引用次數:期刊(0) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0) 排除自我引用:0 共同引用:0 點閱:49

1979-87年之間，伏克爾企圖實現消滅通貨膨脹之目的，採用「貨幣主義論者」的主張，放棄利率指標的控管，改採固定比值貨幣總計數（monetary aggregates）成長指標機制，因疏忽了計算貨幣供給內容突然大幅變異的影響，致帶來急速緊縮貨幣的實際結果；同一時期，偏又遇上聯邦政府赤字不斷地創造新高。遂引來貨幣政策與財政政策之間的緊張關係，也因而成為其時金融投機與經濟紛擾不安的重要因素之一。
借著對伏克爾主持聯邦準備制度理事會八年期間貨幣政策措施的研究，發掘出其執意實行政策的意識形態、原因、結果、及影響。得出最佳的貨幣政策管理操作技巧，是使用逐步調整的方式去消除已發生的紛擾，甚至在未發生事故之前，預作安排，避免紛擾發生；而不是採用令人措手不及的緊急剎車調整方式，以營造出一個對大多數人最為有利的平穩貨幣政策環境。必竟失衡的貨幣政策，終將導致經濟衰退，且根據歷史記錄，聯邦準備理事會決策之不當，確是引發景氣衰退的重要因素之一。
任何一種經濟政策，都有他的時代背景。在貨幣經濟時代，通貨膨脹於一定條件下，甚難避免。然一般經濟學家也都贊同，如果能適度調節貨幣供給，通貨膨脹的氣焰終究會隨之戢止。伏克爾接掌聯準會之時，因緣際會地碰上七十年代的通貨膨脹，營造出伏克爾得以實際執行弗利曼等貨幣主義學者所主張，管理貨幣總計數政策的環境。不過，新政策付諸實踐結果，卻帶來失業率與利率同步升高的副作用。
為了分析說明伏克爾政策之良窳，將其主持期間之貨幣政策作用過程，對充分就業、物價水準、經濟成長、國際收支、及所得分配等五大經濟目標構成要素之影響程度，分成四個不同的政策執行階段：
1. 伏克爾時代肇始的1980年經濟創傷（1979年10月-80年12月）；
2. 伏克爾主持時期的第二次經濟衰退，和百業最蕭條的時期（ 1981-82年）;
3. 政策改弦易轍後的新金融環境，為美國所帶來的經濟繁榮及雷根總統的壓倒性勝利大選（1983 -84年）;
4. 其後美國的成長與繁榮的政策及伏克爾的功成身退（1985-87年）。
研究結果發現，嚴格限制貨幣供給增長，以對抗通貨膨脹的負面效果，確會造成高漲的失業率。因為高漲的利率讓許多機構與個人負擔不起，更多的工廠被迫關門停止生產營業，更多的無法償付到期債務的農人，以及更多的生活在赤貧以下的家庭。聯準會主席應該以非常審慎的態度去評估，採用刪減貨幣供給量之類緊縮政策的時機與強度，絕不可貿然實施。
伏克爾貨幣政策改弦易轍後的放鬆金融措施，通貨膨脹連續五年（1983-87）控制在4%以下的水準。證實通貨膨脹可以獲得確實控制，而且不會傷害到國內經濟的發展。
伏克爾的成就，另一方面也證明聯準會不應該受到政治的控制。獨立的聯準會可以制衡行政部門的經濟權力，避免經濟權力控制在少數行政部門人員手上。因此為了分散經濟大權，聯準會應有獨立的地位，廢除聯準會或將之列為附屬在財政部底下一個部門的主張，實不可採行。但是也不可忽視總統控制（control）、國會支配（dominance）、及聯準會全權執行的主從關係（principals-agent）政治機制，預防決策不當引起信心危機問題，而得平衡穩當的聯邦準備貨幣政策（An even keel policy of the Federal Reserve System.）。

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Paul Adolph Volcker took charge of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (the Fed) in 1979-87, worrying about inflation and adhering strictly in anti-inflation. Suggested by the monetarists, the Fed accepted a single rule governing the money-supply should be expanded at a fixed rate for the basic monetary aggregate-M1. The Fed''s new monetary policy caused tight money effect that had forced interest rates up and had imposed the most severe discipline on the economy. Meanwhile, the combination of tight money and high budget deficits had conflicted between monetary and fiscal policy, and had conducted fundamental disorder in the economy and speculation in financial markets.
Research in the ideology, causes, results, and impacts in the implements of Volcker''s Fed policy, I found that a gradual change is better than a big U-turn''s cold-turkey therapy for monetary policy. There is an even keel monetary policy which will benefit for most of the people. Unavoidable, an imbalanced monetary policy could cause a recession.
Any economic policy has its own background, and inflation seems unavoidable in its rising habitat within a growing monetary economy. The inflation circumstances in the 1970s gave a good chance for Volcker to adopt the monetarist idea which held a constant money-supply. But its side-effect, unemployment and high interest rates would happened simultaneously.
To analyze the influence of Volcker''s Fed policy on the five economic goals - the employment, price level, economic growth, balance-of-payments position, and income distribution, all the Volcker''s eight years in the Fed were divided into four periods:
1. the trauma of 1980 in the apocalypse of Volcker Era (October 1979- December 1980);
2. circumstances went from bad to worse, which was the second recession period in Volcker Fed years and the longest miserable years since the Great Depression (1981-1982);
3. the new financial environments after the turn-around change and the golden election of President Reagan (1983-1984); and
4. the swan song of Volcker’s last years (1985-1987).
The negative impact of decreasing money-supply to anti-inflation strictly will result in the higher rate of unemployment, the more closures of plant, the more overextended farmers, and the more families living under the poverty-stricken. Dramatical slowdown the money-supply might be the worst way on the face of the world to fight inflation, except for all the other ways, and the monetary authorities must be very careful when judging it.
After Volcker''s turn loosened his monetary policy, a new financial environment emerged in 1983. Then the inflation held under 4% for 5 continuos years (1983-87), proved the inflation can be conqureed without killing the American economy.
Independence is an immensely complex concept. The Fed should not be brought under political control. Volcker''s experience in conquering inflation showed the wisdom of independence of the Fed. And the Fed could not be abolished or controlled by Treasury Department. But the independence of the Fed is always a relative matter. Only the principals-agent theory of monetary policymaking may accurately depict the variable nature of Fed independence. A collective bargain rules should be built in response of the conflicts arising from the principals-agent: the control of President, the dominance of Congress, and the execution of the Fed. In short, monetary policymaking should not come upon a single unit but upon a multi-institutional framwork ensuring the even keel policy of the Fed.

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Israelsen, L. Dwight, “Marriner S. Eccles, Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board,” The American Economic Review, 75(May 85): 357-62.
Karamouzis, Nicholas, “An Evaluation of M1 Forecasting Errors by the Federal Reserve Staff in the 1970s,” Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 17:4(Nov. 85): 512-6.
Kaufman, Herbert M. and Raymond E. Lombra, “The Effect of Changes in the Federal Reserve’s Policy Rule on the Stochastic Structure Linking Reserves, Interest Rates, and Money,” Southern Economic Journal, 52(April 86): 1080-7.
Kearney, Adrienne A., “The Changing Influence of Money and Monetary Policy On Exchange Rates,” Economic Inquiry, 33(April 95): 203-16.
Klibanoff, Hank, “A Farewell to Farming,” Philadelphia Inquirer, (March 31,85).
Knodell, Jane, “Open Market Operations: Evolution and Significance,” Journal of Economic Issues, 21:2(June 87): 691-721.
Krause, George A., “Federal Reserve Policy Decision Making: Political and Bureaucratic Influences,” American Journal of Political Science, 38:1 (Feb. 94): 124-44. new window

Lekachman, Robert, “The Fed In Fact and Fiction: To Whom Is It Responsible?” Dissent, 35(winter 88): 94-7.
Leroy, Stephen F., “Bookreview, Controlling Money: The Federal Reserve and Its Critics,” The Journal of Economic Literature, 22(June 84): 606-8.
Levinson, Mark, “Anti-Inflation Fanaticism at the Fed,” Dissent, 42(winter 95): 10-12.
Lissner, Will, “Reform of the Federal Reserve?” American Journal of Economics and Sociology, 48(April 89): 192.
Lucia, Joseph L., “The Failure of the Bank of United States: A Reappraisal,”
Explorations in Economic History, 22(Oct. 85): 402-16.
Mankiw, N. Gregory, Jeffrey A. Miron, and David N. Weil, “The Adjustment of Expectations to a Change In Regime: A Study of the Founding of the Federal Reserve,” The American Economic Review, 77(June 87): 358-74.
Marquez, Jaime, “Bookreview, U.S. Trade Deficit: Causes, Consequence, and Cures,”
Journal of International Economics, 29(Aug.90): 195-7.
Mason, Joseph R., “Bookreview,” The Journal of Economic History, 54(Sept. 94): 724-5.
McMillin, W. Douglas, “Federal Deficits, Macrostabilization Goals, And Federal Reserve Behavior,” Economic Inquiry, 24(April 86): 257-62.
Minsky, Hyman P., “Bookreview, Secrets of the Temple: How the Federal Reserve Runs the Country,” Challenge, 31(May-June 88): 58-64.
Miron, Jeffrey, “Financial Panics, the Seasonality of the Nominal Interest Rate, and the Founding of the Fed,” The American Economic Review, 76(March 86): 125-40.
Nichols, Donald A., David H. Small, and Charles E. Webster, Jr., “Why Interest Rates Rise When an Unexpectedly Large Money Stock is Announced,” The American Economic Review, 73(June 83): 383-8.
Niggle, Christopher J., “Bookreview, Secrets of the Temple: How the Federal Reserve Runs the Country,” Journal of Economic Issues, 23(March 89): 272-5.
Pearce, Douglas K., “Discount Window Borrowing and Federal Reserve Operating Regimes,” Economic Inquiry, 31(Oct. 93): 564-79.
Poole, William, “Federal Reserve Operating Procedures,” Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 14:4(Nov. 82): 575-96.
Quddus, Munir, “Bookreview, Monetary Policy on the 75th Anniversary of the Federal Reserve System,” Southern Economic Journal, 59(July 92): 135-7.
Raines, J. Patrick and Charles G. Leathers, “The New Speculative Stock Market: Why the Weak Immunizing Effect of the 1987 Crash?” Journal of Economic Issues, 28:3 (Sept. 94): 733-53.
Robinson III, James D., “Inflation Overkill: Moving the Fed into a Global Age,”
Foreign Affairs, 73(Sept./Oct. 94): 2-7.
Ruddell,Cheryl, “Boomer Nest Eggs,” American Demographics, 17(July 95):8 & 59.
Schneider, Jerrold E., “Bookreview, Monetary Politics: The Federal Reserve and the Politics of Monetary Policy,” The Journal of Politics, 47(Aug. 85): 1024-6.
Schughart II, William F. and Robert D. Tollison, “Preliminary Evidence on the Use of Inputs by the Federal Reserve System,” The American Economic Review, 73(June 83): 291-304.
Shapiro, Matthew D., “Assessing the Federal Reserve’s Measures of Capacity and Utilization,” Brookings Papers On Economic Activity, (1989): 181-241.
Skaggs, Nell T., “The Federal Reserve System and Congressional Demands for Information,” Social Science Quarterly, 64(Sept. 83): 566-81.
Stein, Herbert, “The Federal Reserve: Model for Europe?” The American Enterprise, 1(Sept./Oct. 90): 12-16. new window

Stein, Jeremy C., “Cheap Talk and the Fed: A Theory of Imprecise Policy Announcements,” The American Economic Review, 79(March 89): 39-42.
Steindl, Frank G., “Anticipation of the Great Contraction?” History of Political Economy, 20(spring 88): 65-83.
Timberlake, Richard H., Jr., “Legislative Construction of the Monetary control Act of 1980,” The American Economic Review, 75(May 85): 97-102.
Toma, Mark, “The Policy Effectiveness of Open Market Operations in the 1920s,”
Explorations in Economic History, 26(Jan. 89): 99-116
______, “Bookreview,” The Journal of Economic History, 53(June 93): 452-3.
______, “Bookreview,” The Journal of Economic History, 55(Sept. 935): 740-1.
Tootell, Geoffrey M. B., “Appointment Procedures and FOMC Voting Behavior,” Southern Economic Journal, 63(July 96): 191-204.
Volcker, Paul A., et al., “International Monetary Cooperation,” Essays in International Finance, No. 169(Dec. 1987), New Jersey: Princeton University, 1987.
Wheelock, David C., “The Strategy, Effectiveness, and Consistency of Federal Reserve Monetary Policy, 1924-1933,” Explorations in Economic History, 26(Oct. 89): 453-473.
Witte, Willard E., “Macroeconomics Stability and the Short Run Federal Reserve Reaction Function, 1969-1979,” Economic Inquiry, 22(Oct. 84): 571-8.
Wood, J. Stuart, “Bookreview, The Business Cycle: Theories and Evidence,” Southern Economic Journal, 61(Oct. 94): 566-8.
Yohe, William P., “The Intellectual Milieu at the Federal Reserve Board in the 1920s,”
History of Political Economy, 22:3(fall 90: 465-88.
“Bookreview, The Federal Reserve System: A History of the First 75 years,” Southern Economic Journal, 59(Oct. 92): 335-6.
.
“Symposium: Federal Reserve Monetary Policy,” Challenge, 36(Sept.-Oct. 93):
1-31.
IV. Magazines:
Asian Business, (May 94): 4, (Feb. 99): 8-10.
Business Week, (Nov. 1, 99): 38-41, (Nov. 8,99): 48-9, (Nov. 22,99): 64A2-A6, (Jan. 24,2000): 7, (Jan. 31,2000): 34-52, (Feb. 14, 2000): 32-54, (March 16, 2000): 12 ໿. new window

(March 13, 2000): 42-3, (May 29,2000): 73.
The Economist, (Sept. 22,1984): 5-68. “Central Banking Survey.”
The Economist, (May 30, 1987): 19-30. “Paul Volcker.”
The Economist, (Jan. 25,1992): 19-21. “Central Banks: America vs. Japan, The Rewards of Independence.”
The Economist, (April 10,1993): “A Survey of International Banking.”
The Economist, (April 15,1995): 26-29. “Survey Wall Street,”
The Economist, (July 14,84): 22-23, (Dec. 22,84): 16-17, (Sept. 26,85) 29-30, (Oct. 19,85): 24, (March 29,86): 21, (May 17,86): 25, (July 5,86): 25-6, (Feb. 21,87): 23-32, (June 6,87): 11-2, 75-6, (Feb. 6,88): 87, (June 4,88): 25-6, (March 11,89): 78, (Aug. 26,89): 15-6, (Oct. 28,89): 18-9, (Dec. 2,89): 88-90, (April 28,90): 84-9, (Aug. 18,90): 66-8, (Sept. 29,90): 33, (Jan. 19,91):72-3, (July 6,91):78-85, (Aug. 10,91):11-12, (Sept. 5,92):24-5, (Sept. 12,92):75, (Oct. 24,92):13 & 25, (Nov. 14,92):25-8, (Dec. 26,92- Jan. 8,93):106-8, (Jan. 23,93):69, (Feb. 27,93):83-4, (March 13,93):85-8, (March 20,93):33, (June 5,93):18-20, (June 12,93):36, (Aug. 28,93):18,63-65, (Sept. 4,93):14, (Nov. 13,93):96, (Dec. 25,93- Jan. 7,94):99-100, (Feb. 5,94):24-5, (Feb. 12,94):78-80, (Feb. 26,94):13-4, (March 5,94):83-91, (March 26,94):18-20,84,92-4, (April 30,94):14,27-8, (June 4,94):80-2, (June 11,94):82, (June 25,94):14, (July 2,94):14-6,75, (July 16,94):15,74, (Aug. 6,94):18-9, (Aug. 20,94):14-5, (Sept. 3,94):78, (Sept. 10,94):27, (Oct. 8,94):88, (Oct. 15,94):17-8,31, (Oct. 22,94):89-90, (Nov. 12,94):97-9, (Dec. 10,94):78-81,88, (Jan. 28,95):32, (Feb. 4,95):67-8, (Feb. 25,95):82, (April 15,95):14,67-8, (April 22,95):18-20, (Aug. 5,95):68, (Aug. 19,95): 38-40, (Aug. 26,95):15, (Oct. 21,95):80, (Nov. 4,95):81, (Nov. 11,95):75, (March 2 ,96):32.
Far Eastern Economic Review, (May 19,94):58, (July 7,94):70, (July 21,94):65, (Feb. 2,95):56, (July 20,95):40-5, (Aug. 31,95):53, (Oct. 12,95):162, (Feb. 29,96):58.
Fortune, (April 28,1986): “Fortune 500 Summary.”
Alter, Jonathan, “Good Time Politics,” Newsweek, Feb. 2, 2000, pp.12-5.
Samuelson, Robert J., “Alan knows Best?” Newsweek, Nov. 7, 1994,pp.44-5.
_____, “What Greenspan Doesn’t Know…” Newsweek, May 1,2000, p.4. new window

_____, “Maybe It’s Not The Economy…”Newsweek, August 7,2000, p.4.
Sloan, Allan, “Economic Expansions Ain’t External,” Newsweek, Feb. 2, 2000,p.17.
Newsweek, (Oct. 31,94):38-43, (Feb. 2,95):50-1.
Time, (Dec. 9,91):40-2, (Jan. 13,92):27-34, (July 13,92):14, (Sept. 7,92):44-5, (Sept. 28,92):23-5,40, (Oct. 19,92):72, (Oct. 31,92):26, (Nov. 30,92):24-8, (March 7,94):62, (April 18,94):29-31, (May 30,94):35, (June 20,94):55, (Oct. 24,94):34-42, (March 20,95):17-22, (Feb. 12,96):35, (March 10, 97):28, (June 2,97):39, (July 28,97):36-8,
(Sept. 29,97):36-7, (Oct. 20,97):46-9, (Nov. 3, 97):17-26, (Nov. 10,97):15-21,32, (Dec. 8,97):15-8, (Jan. 26,98):14-6, (Feb. 2,98):12-20, (Feb. 16,98):42-6, (Nov. 9,98):18-32, (Dec. 7,98):51-54, (Jan. 11,99):28-9, (Feb. 15,99):32-48, (March 29,99):96-8, (May 31,99):29, (June 21,99):32-7, (Jan. 7,2000):22-3, (Jan.17,2000):34, (Jan. 31,2000):24-5, (April 30,2000):44-5.
U.S. News & World Report, (May 20, 85):54.
V. Newspaper Articles:
Berry, John M., “Fed Uncertain About What To Do With Rates,” The Washington Post, reprinted in The China Post, Sept. 14,1996,p.12.
_____, “Consumer Confidence Highest Since ’68,” The Washington Post, reprinted in The China Post, Dec. 30,1999,p.15.
_____, “U.S. Economy Seen Slowing Downing,” The Washington Post, reprinted in The China Post, June 3,2000,p.15.
Brittan, Samuel, “Learn From Keynes But Don’t Be A Parrot,” Financial Times, Nov. 12,92,p.17.
_____, “Tide Turns In the World Economy,” Financial Times, March 25,93, p.15.
_____, “The True Case For An Independent Bank,” Financial Times, June 17,93, p.10.
Chandler, Clay, “Japan’s Central Banker Begins to Win Praise For Saving Its Soul,”
The Wall Street Journal Europe, June 17,93,p.18.
Engelmann, Knut, “Federal Reserve Caught In Economic Dilemma,” The China Post, April 29,2000,p.15.
Gosselin, Peter G., “Cutback In Oil Output Hightens Inflation Uncertainty IN U.S.,” The Los Angeles Times, reprinted in The China Post, March 25, 99, p.13.
Heilbrunn, Jacob, “Sacrificing Workers in Greenspan’s War On Inflation,” The Los Angeles Times, reprinted in The China Post, June 1, 2000, p.4. new window

The Lex Column, “Greenspan’s Games,” Financial Times, July 19,96, p.16.
The Wall Street Journal, (May 10,86).
Peterson, Jonathan, “Economic Growth Reaching Milestone,” The Los Angeles Times, reprinted in The China Post, Feb. 2, 2000, p.10.
Prowse, Michael, “Greenspan Speaks Softly and Shows Inflation A Big Stick,” Financial Times, July 19,96, p.5.
Riley, Barry, “Old Lady Or Aunt Sally?” Financial Times Weekend, June 26,93,p.1. new window

Wessel, David, “Fed Chairman Greenspan Gives Upbeat Assessment,” The Asian Wall Street Journal, July 20,1995, p.2.
“Clinton Announces Greenspan Renomination,” The China Post, Jan. 6,2000,p.15.
“John McCain Campaigns For Opponents of Soft Money Bill,” The China Post, May 31,2000,p.3.
“Independence For the Bank,” Financial Times, Nov. 12,92,p.16.
“The Flaws in Central Bank Freedom,” Financial Times, Jan. 22,93, p.11.
“Inflation Puts Fed Back In the Spotlight,” Financial Times Weekend, May 15,93, p.II.
“Internal Memorandum From the Governor to the Governor-elect,” Financial Times Weekend, June 26,93,p.2.
“Dethronement of the D-Mark,” Financial Times Weekend, June 26,93,p.8.
“Inscrutable Mr. Greenspan,” Financial Times, July 19,96, p.15.
“Clinton And Congress Prod the Fed For More Help on U.S. Economy,” The Wall Street Journal Europe, Jan. 22,93,p.1. new window

VI. Dissertations:
Cordell, Lawrence R., The Invisible Handshake: An Investigation of the Monetary Policy Process at the Federal Reserve System, 1966 to 1982, A dissertation of Doctor of Philosophy, The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, 1989.
Corder, Jerald Kevin, Political Conflict and Central Banking Practice, A dissertation of Doctor of Philosophy, Washington University, 1993.
Flynn, Sean Timothy, The Evolution of Finance, Bank Interdependence, and the Danger of Bank Failures in the Modern United States Economy, A dissertation of Doctor of Philosophy, The University of Notre Dame, 1993.
Klatil, Milada, A History of Central Banking in the United States,1791-1991, A dissertation of Doctor of Philosophy, The City University of New York,1994.
MacDonald, Richard A., Federal Reserve Credibility and Monetary Regimes, A dissertation of Doctor of Philosophy, The State University of New York at Binghamton, 1991
Markese, John David, The “Even Keel” Policy of the Federal Reserve System: Origin, Definition, Implementation, and Import, A Thesis of Doctor of Philosophy in Finance in the Graduate College of the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, 1971.
Morris, Irwin Lester, Congress, The President, and the Federal Reserve: The Politics of American Monetary Policy, A dissertation of Doctor of Philosophy, The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, 1994.
Peterson, Susan B., A Historical Review of the Independence of the Federal Reserve System and an Analysis of Recent Policy Decisions, A dissertation of Doctor of Philosophy, The University of Utah, 1985.
Wells, Wyatt Clinton, Economist in an Uncertain World: Arthur F. Burns and the Federal Reserve, 1970-1978, A dissertation of Doctor of Philosophy, The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, 1992.
Wueschner, Silvano Alfons, Herbert Hoover, Benjamin Strong, and American Monetary Policy, 1917-1928, A dissertation of Doctor of Philosophy, The University of Iowa, 1993.
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