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題名:多目標決策理論在土地利用規劃應用之研究--以桃園縣發展成亞太空運中心為目標之個案研究
作者:林遠航
作者(外文):Yuan-Hang Lin
校院名稱:中國文化大學
系所名稱:地學研究所
指導教授:曾國雄
學位類別:博士
出版日期:2002
主題關鍵詞:環境識覺土地利用規劃多目標規畫多屬性評估Environment PerceptionLand Use PlanningMultiobjective PlanningMultiple Attribute Evaluation
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
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本研究試圖透過環境識覺模式,用來解釋規劃時如何決定開發規模的認知問題,以多目標決策理論之方法解決多人認知共識形成之問題,再結合兩者導入土地利用規劃流程內,建立多目標土地利用規劃的理論模式,作為本研究的研究架構。
本研究在研究方法上以時間序列法及灰色預測法作為各項規劃指標之預測方法;目標規劃法及妥協規劃法作為土地利用規劃方法;層級分析法及TOPSIS排序法作為土地利用方案之評估方法。並以桃園中正國際機場發展為亞太轉運中心計畫,及配合機場週邊地區之土地開發為桃園航空城為策略,整合兩者形成以桃園縣發展為亞太空運中心為目標做為本研究之個案研究。
本研究模擬結果顯示藉由規模與規劃的結合,產生之土地利用規劃方案,較利於評估規模是否恰當。對於評估方案而言,利用不同專家的經驗評估,及使用層級分析法對專家評估的綜合及TOPSIS對評估方案的排序,便可產生一個結合專家對問題認知評估的質性回應的量化處理方法,解決環境識覺模式對於認知的主觀性及無法量化處理認知資訊的問題。因此多目標土地利用規劃模式,可以展現規劃者對於問題認知的解釋方式,多目標決策理論提供了量化認知資訊主體性的處理方法。對於土地利用規劃而言,可以結合更多的專家的經驗,對於規劃規模提出更好的結果。
解決規劃規模之認知問題後,未來將同樣以多目標土地利用規劃理論模式,探討規劃基地區位決策問題。同時引入更多的多目標規劃、評估及排序方法,探討這些方法在土地利用規劃上的適用性與適用範圍。長期目標則是將整個多目標土地利用規劃模式導入地理資訊系統之內,建立一個自動化的多目標土地模擬實驗規劃系統。
This research is intended to explain how to make a decision of development scale while planning by using Environment Perception module. Using Multiple Criteria Decision Making is to solve problems that are occured because of many people''s cognitions. Moreover, combining these two theories within the procedure of land using planning and construct a theoretical module of the multiple land use planning. This is the structure of the research.
The research plans to use Time Series Analysis and Grey Prediction to be a predicting method of every planning target. Goal Programming Method and Compromise Programming Method are planned to be methods of land use planning. In addition, Analytic Hierarchy Process and Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution are planned to be evaluating methods of land use schemes. By using two strategies (developing Taoyuan Jungjeng International Airport to be an Asia-Pacific Transportation Center and coordinating lands developing of areas around the airport to become a Taoyuan Airport City), combining these two strategies is to develop Taoyuan Hsien to become an Asia-Pacific Air-Transportation Center. This is a case study that the research is planned to discuss.
The simulating result demonstrates the scheme of land use planning, developed by the combination of the module and the plan, is more efficient to evaluate the propriety of scale. About evaluating scheme, it accrue a quantification method of the combination of professional''s evaluation of the problems cognition substantiality response by using different professionals'' experienced evaluating methods and Analytic Hierarchy Process to sum up professionals''. Evaluations and sequence of the evaluating schemes of TOPSIS. This method can solve the subjectivity of cognitions thatt occur from Environment Perception module and problems that is not able to manage the cognize date quantitatively. Because of Multiobjective Land Use Planning module, it demonstrates planners'' explanation way of cognition problems. Multiobjective Decision Theory offers the solution of Quantification Cognition Data Subjective. For land use planning, it combines other professionals'' experiences in order to have a better result of plan module.
After solving the cognition problems of plan module, it discusses the decision making problems of Base Niche planning by using Multiobjective land use planning theoretical module. At the same time, having more Multiobjective planning, evaluating and sequent methods are for exploring the situability and suitable field of these methods at land use planning. The long term target is to lead the Multiobjective Land Use Planning module to become a system of geographical data and construct an automatic system of Multiobjective lands simulation experimental plans.
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