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題名:基因改造大豆、玉米及其加工產品對我國農業的影響
作者:吳佳勳
作者(外文):Chia-Hsuan Wu
校院名稱:國立臺灣大學
系所名稱:農業經濟學研究所
指導教授:張靜貞
徐世勳
學位類別:博士
出版日期:2003
主題關鍵詞:基因改造消費者偏好強制標示一般均衡Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) ModelGenetically Modified Organisms(GMOs)AgricultrualCornSoybean
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
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近年來生物技術快速發展,各種基因改造作物及其加工食品也已透過貿易市場向外流通,其中玉米和大豆已然成為基因及非基因改造市場區隔最具代表性的產品,也是目前全世界最主要的基改作物,其用途廣泛,多進入加工食品市場、作為畜牧用飼料、或者直接供民眾消費之用,本文嘗試採用ORANI一般均衡模型,配合行政院主計處所公布的產業關聯表(input-output table)做為資料來源,來探討基因改造產品所衍生的經濟效益或成本,並針對未來各種管理政策:包括實施追溯強制標示制度、消費者對基改產品偏好改變、國外基改技術持續進步,以及完全禁止基改大豆、玉米進口措施等議題來進行評估。
實證資料處理方面,乃依據各產業投入產出關係計算大豆、玉米及其衍生食品加工業所含的基改比例,以在資料中區分出基改產品。同時在研究方法上,分別針對模型中的廠商生產架構及消費者的消費支出架構做處理,將原本的產品別依比例拆解出基改與非基改產品,並設定兩者之間存在固定替代彈性(CES)關係,因此廠商在選擇中間投入或者消費者消費支出時,所面對的是一個可能存在基改與非基改的複合產品。
研究結果顯示:追溯強制標示下,基改產品因生產成本提高而使得產出全面減少;價格上漲,非基改類產品影響幅度不大,主要是受整體經濟變動所影響。考慮到消費者對基改產品的需求偏好下降時,基改產品與非基改產品將呈明顯替代,顯示國內消費者對基改產品的認知與偏好的選擇深刻影響政策之影響效果。當國外基改技術持續進步使得進口基改大豆、玉米價格下跌時,則對標示成本提升的負面衝擊有彌補作用。至於採禁止基改玉米、大豆進口時,首當其衝的產業為畜產業、飼料業、食用油脂業,將對我國農業部門及總體經濟造成衝擊。
The development of agricultural biotechnology offers the opportunity to increase crop production, lower farming costs, improve food quality and could be reducing costs to consumers. Although until now Taiwan haven’t commercialize any GM foods, but Taiwan used to highly dependent on importing lots of grain products from world market, and the import quantity as well as price will be affected through world market as the production technology of GM crops is adopted. When the GM crops were imported to Taiwan, as suppliers of inputs and buyers agricultural products, other sectors will also be affected by the use of genetic engineering crops through vertical (or backward) and horizontal (or forward) linkages.
This paper offers a preliminary quantitative assessment of the economic impacts of Taiwan importing GM crops on agricultural sector. For this purpose, a multi-sectoral computable general equilibrium model is used, named ORANI model. This model is amended by splitting the corn and soybeans into GM and non-GM varieties, and endogenizes the decision of producers and consumers to use GM vs. non-GM corn and soybeans in their intermediate use and consumption, respectively. In this paper we concern about the different GMO policies, including mandatory traceable labeling policy, consumers’ acceptance of GM food product and its implication. We also assume that if Taiwan adopt import ban on GM soybeans and GM corn, the result shows that it would be much great affect to Taiwan’s economics.
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