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題名:由公司治理角度建構違約公司之綜效鑑識模式
作者:龐玉涓
作者(外文):Yuh-Jiuan Parng
校院名稱:雲林科技大學
系所名稱:管理研究所博士班
指導教授:傅鍾仁
學位類別:博士
出版日期:2010
主題關鍵詞:決策樹分析模糊多準則決策分析公司治理董事會組成邏輯回歸BOD CompositionCorporate GovernanceLogistic RegressionFMCDADecision Tree Analysis
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鑑定潛在違約公司對多數的財務專業人員來說是一項挑戰。除了財務報告外,評估公司治理機制可建構出另一種警示出這類公司的替代策略。更進一步來說,了解潛在違約公司相對危機性的排序對財務專業人員或是相關規範管理者在做審計以及(或)監督決策時,更是具有關鍵性的意義。在發生於2008至2009年間全球金融危機後,針對如何解決這類急迫且重要的議題上,本研究提出一綜效性的探索,此方向將提供一更完整又具邏輯性的系列方法。首先,建構一邏輯回歸模型以過濾出影響違約公司在公司治理以及財務表現方面的決定性因素。接著,應用分類回歸的技術以決策樹模擬辨識「是/否」的模式來預測一個公司違約的身分。最後,採用模糊多準則決策分析的方法進一步深度了解這些違約公司相對嚴重危險性的排序。本研究豐碩的研究成果包括: 1) 提供進一步關於公司治理影響違約公司的文獻內容,尤其是在2008至2009年後的金融危機階段; 2) 鑑定出造成違約公司的顯著影響因素,這些因素包含了董事會規模、經理人於董事會的席次、家族集團於董事會持有的席次、家族集團持股、董事股票質押比率、公司於違約前三年換會計師的情形、公司規模以及負債比率等; 3) 發展出三階段分析的綜效探索模式,以提出潛在違約公司「可能性/嚴重性」的證據,其中更發現公司於違約前三年中是否撤換會計師在排序風險公司上扮演了重要影響的角色。本研究的貢獻對審計評量,財務風險評估以及監督實務的決策者,非常具有參考價值。
Identifying potentially defaulting corporations is a challenge for most financial professionals. Besides the financial reporting, the evaluation of corporate governance (CG) mechanisms constitutes an alternative strategy for singling out these companies. Furthermore, it is even crucial for financial professionals or regulators to understand the relative ranking of seriousness for the potential defaulting companies while making auditing and/or supervising decisions. In order to resolve this urgent problem which is of the most importance after the incidence of the global financial turmoil between 2008-2009, this research proposes a synergetic approach which provides a more logically sound serial methodologies. Firstly, construct a logistic regression model to filtrate critical criteria both in CG and financial performance in defaulting firms; secondly, apply the classification and regression tree (CART) technique to emulate the yes/no identification pattern of human being via the decision tree structure to predict the defaulting status of a firm; then lastly, adopt the fuzzy multicriteria decision analysis (FMCDA) method to have in depth understanding of the relative ranking of the seriousness in firms getting defaulted. The fruitful results of this research include: 1) providing further literature review and comment about the influence of the corporate governance on the defaulting status of firms, especially, after the financial turmoil in the period of 2008-2009; 2) identifying the set of significant impact factors/criteria that cause defaulting firms, which includes the size of board of directors (BOD), seats in BOD held by managers, seats in BOD controlled by family group, total shares held by family group, ratio of shares pledged in BOD, and a firm that changes its CPA in three years prior to the default, total assets, and total debt to total assets; 3) developing a synergetic approach which comprises three analytical phases to lead to logical evidence about the “possibility/seriousness” of the potential defaulting firms and successfully explores that the CAP changes prior to default year plays influentially role in the final rankings among the risky firms. The contributions are of the most referential value for decision makers in auditing evaluation, financial risk judgment and supervising practice.
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