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題名:胡錦濤時期中國對非洲維和外交之研究:從理性決策與官僚政治模型探討
作者:何芳林
作者(外文):Fanie Herman
校院名稱:國立中興大學
系所名稱:國際政治研究所
指導教授:蔡明彥
學位類別:博士
出版日期:2014
主題關鍵詞:中國維和行動決策動機理性決策模型官僚政治模式ChinaPeacekeeping OperationsDecision makingMotivationsRational Actor ModelBureaucratic Politics Model
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就國際維和行動而言,中國在胡錦濤時期累積了豐碩的成果,成為當今非洲維和行動的主要貢獻國之一。本研究視「維和行動」為一種工具性的手段。透過維和行動,聯合國得以在賴比瑞亞、剛果和達富爾等地落實和平的目標。無論是促進經濟合作或是取得自然資源,中國在非洲擁有相當大的利益。為了維護在非洲的利益,中國的當務之急是建立一個安全和穩定的國際環境。藉由與非洲友邦的良好互動,中國得以在世界舞台上發揚「和諧世界觀」以及「和平發展」等理念;胡錦濤時期所重視的。有鑑於此,本研究的目的在於理解維和行動是否有助於增進中國與非洲地區的關係,而其發揮的影響力又有多高。作者透過艾利森的理性行為模型( RAM )和官僚政治模型( BPM )觀察中國在非洲的維和行動。理性行為模型可用於推論和解釋單一國家的目標,為達到目標而可以採取的措施,以及採用一項措施的成效和後果。官僚政治模型則可說明官僚體系的協商和議價過程。理性選擇模式(RAM)的應用顯示一個重要結果:同一套的解釋工具運用在各國案例而產生不同結果,使此模型適用性應依據具體情況而定。賴比瑞亞的維和行動強化經濟外交,而剛果的維和行動影響中國與剛果的戰略與軍事關係,蘇丹的維和行動則奠定相互經濟發展的基礎。官僚政治模式(BPM)有四大發現:一,外交部大使及解放軍官員因各自部門不同利益影響維和行動的決策;二,外交部將維和行動之成果作為自己的功勞來擴大部門利益;三,負責非洲事務的特別代表使用其談判技巧以提升個人聲望;四,不同的官僚機構之間為避免內部對抗和競爭而達成妥協。這些發現顯示官僚政治模式因被分析國家不同而產生不同結果。
The importance of the study is expressed in the view that peacekeeping intervention is a tool that strengthens or fulfills China’s policy goals in the United Nations Mission in Liberia (UNMIL), the UN Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (MONUSCO), and the UN Mission in Darfur (UNAMID). China has considerable interests at stake in Africa, in terms of promoting economic cooperation or gaining access to natural resources. In order to maintain these efforts, it is imperative that a secure and stable environment is created, not only to maintain diplomatic relations with its African partners, but also to express the harmonious worldview and peaceful development concepts, which rose to prominence under the presidency of Hu Jintao. The purpose of this study is therefore to examine the extent to which peacekeeping intervention contributes to China’s relations with these countries. Two models are employed to shed light on this thesis. The rational actor model (RAM) developed by Graham Allison is used in the first instance to explain the goals for each country, the options considered to reach the goals, the consequences or outcomes of choice that will ensure whether a particular option is chosen, and then selecting the option that has the consequences that rank the highest in the leadership’s payoff function. The bureaucratic politics model (BPM) is used in the second instance to show the bargaining, competing and compromising positions of the bureaucracy that produces results in decisionmaking. The main finding of the RAM is that the same set of explanatory tools produces different results in each country which makes the model situation specific. In Liberia peacekeeping reinforces economic diplomacy, in the DRC peacekeeping impacts the Sino-DRC strategic and military relationship, and in Sudan peacekeeping builds a foundation for mutual economic development. The main findings of the BPM are: Ambassadors from the MFA and officers from the PLA influenced peacekeeping decisionmaking through departmental positions. The MFA advanced departmental interests by taking credit for the actions performed by the peacekeepers. The special representative for African Affairs used his bargaining skills to promote personal interests, and the PLA and MFA had competing preferences on the goals and missions of PKOs. These findings show mixed results in the countries analyzed.
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(2011), pp. 137-139.
Welch, David A. “The Organizational Process and Bureaucratic Politics Paradigms: Retrospect and Prospect,” International Security, Vol. 17, No. 2 (Fall 1992), pp. 112-146.
Wendt, Alexander. “Anarchy is What States Make of It: The Social Construction of Power Politics,” International Organization, Vol. 46, No. 2 (Spring 1992), pp. 391-425.
Wu, Zhengyu & Ian Taylor. “From Refusal to Engagement: Chinese Contributions to
Peacekeeping in Africa,” Journal of Contemporary African Studies, Vol. 29, No. 2
(2011), pp. 137-154.
Xia, Liping. “China: A Responsible Great Power,” Journal of Contemporary China, Vol. 10, No. 26 (2001), pp. 17-25.
Yee, Sienho. “Towards a Harmonious World: The Roles of the International Law of Co-Progressiveness and Leader States,” Chinese Journal of International Law, Vol. 7, No. 1 (2008), pp. 99-105.new window
Yetiv, Steve A. “Groupthink and the Gulf Crisis,” British Journal of Political Science, Vol. 33, No. 3 (2003), pp. 419-412.

Government Reports and Official Documents

Information Office of the State Council. White Paper on China’s National Defense. Beijing: Information Office of the State Council, 2002.
Information Office of the State Council, White Paper on China’s Peaceful Development Road. Beijing, Information Office of the State Council, 2005.
Information Office of the State Council, White Paper on China’s National Defense. Beijing, Information Office of the State Council, 2006.
Information Office of the State Council of the People’s Republic of China, White Paper on China’s National Defense. Beijing: Information Office of the State Council, 2008.
Information Office of the State Council. White Paper: Diversified Employment of China’s Armed Forces. Beijing: Information Office of the State Council, 2013.
Permanent Mission of the PRC to the UN, Statement by Ambassador Wang Yingfan,
Permanent Representative of China to the UN, at the Security Council on the Situation concerning the Democratic Republic of the Congo. New York, United Nations, 2003.
Permanent Mission of the PRC to the UN, Explanatory Statement by Chinese Ambassador
Wang Guangya on the Vote on Security Council Resolution on Darfur, Sudan. New York, United Nations, 2006.
Permanent Mission of the PRC to the UN, China Makes Unremitting Efforts to Resolve Crisis in Darfur. New York, United Nations, 2008.
Permanent Mission of the PRC to the UN, China Has Done “A Great Deal” For Solving Darfur Issue: Chinese Envoy. New York, United Nations, 2008.
United Nations Security Council, Security Council Establishes UN Observer Mission in Angola (MONUA) Mandated to Assist Angolan Parties to Consolidated Peace. New York, United Nations, 1997.
United Nations Security Council, Final Report of the Group of Experts on the Democratic Republic of Congo. New York, United Nations, 2009.
United States Department of Defense, Annual Report to Congress: Military and Security
Developments Involving the PRC. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Defense, 2013.



Dissertations

Beauchamp-Mustafaga, Nathan. “Chinese Bureaucratic Politics and Sino-North Korean
Relations: Dynamics and Implications.” Peking: Peking University, Master’s thesis,
2012.
Bradford, Jeffrey. “Political Aspects of Strategic Decisionmaking in British Defence Policy.” UK: Cranfield University, Ph.D dissertation, 1999.
Pollack, Jonathan. “Perception and Action in Chinese Foreign Policy: The Quemoy Decision.” US: University of Michigan, Ph.D. dissertation, 1976.
Saikaly, Ramona. “Decision Making in U.S. Foreign Policy: Applying Kingdon’s Multiple Streams Model to the 2003 Iraq Crisis.” US: Kent State University, Ph.D dissertation, 2009.
Quaintance, Michael Kimo. “From Bad Weapons to Bad States: The Evolution of U.S. Counterproliferation Policy.” UK: University of St Andrews, Ph.D dissertation, 2009.

Interviews

Interview with Liberian national, Global Communication Conference, Zambia, Lusaka, 10
July, 2012.
Interview with government official at the Sahrawian, Sahraouian Embassy in Pretoria,
South Africa, 16 July 2012.
Interview with DRC businessman in Johannesburg, South Africa, 18 July, 2012.
Interview with Chinese academic at Nan Hua Temple(佛光山南華寺), Bronkhorstspruit, South Africa, July 27, 2012.
Interview with Sudanese businessman in Johannesburg, South Africa, August 21, 2013.
Interview with Chinese businessman in Johannesburg, South Africa, August 26, 2013
Interview with government official at the Chinese Embassy in Pretoria, South Africa, August 29, 2013.
E-Mail Messages

Dr. Xu Xiaobing, Guo-Guan Law School Shanghai Jiao Tong University, 上海交通大學,
e-mail message to the author, June 8, 2012.
Emanuele Sommario, Assistant Professor of International Scuola Superiore Sant’Anna
Pizza Martiri della Liberta, 33 Law, Pisa, ITALY, e-mail message to author, July 18,
2012.
Tao Qian, PhD student in Comparative Law at the School Superiore Sant’Anna in Pisa,
e-mail message to author, October 2, 2012.
Andrea de GUTTRY, Full Professor of Public International Law Director, International
Research Laboratory on Conflict, Development and Global Politics School Sant’Anna
Martyrs Square of Liberty, 33, e-mail message to the author, October 3, 2012.
Patrick Hsu, Business Consultant at the Chinese Chamber of Commerce in Bedfordview,
South Africa, November, 20, 2013, e-mail message to the author.

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