:::

詳目顯示

回上一頁
題名:全球暖化對熱帶深對流區之影響
作者:劉曉薇
作者(外文):Liu, Hsiao-Wei
校院名稱:中國文化大學
系所名稱:地學研究所博士班
指導教授:余嘉裕
學位類別:博士
出版日期:2015
主題關鍵詞:全球暖化大氣粗濕分層度熱帶深對流區Global WarmingGross Moisture StratificationTropical Deep Convective Regions
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
相關次數:
  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(0) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:0
  • 共同引用共同引用:0
  • 點閱點閱:25
二十世紀末全球暖化對人類及生態環境的衝擊受到世人注意和學界廣泛的探討,然而全球暖化如何影響劇烈天氣發生頻率,在大氣科學界仍是個未解決的議題;由於劇烈天氣現象需要大量水氣來源,而水氣所產生的溫室效應大約佔整體溫室效應的60-70%,了解全球暖化過程大氣中水氣含量變化,成為連結全球暖化尺度和劇烈天氣尺度之重要關鍵。本研究利用Yu and Neelin (1997)在對流準平衡動力學(convective quasi-equilibrium dynamics)架構下定義之『粗濕分層度』(gross moisture stratification, Mq)作為量度熱帶深對區活動範圍之度量尺(Metric),以探討伴隨全球暖化熱帶深對流區範圍變化。本研究分別使用了四種不同的大氣再分析資料及IPCC模式輸出未來氣候態大氣資料來計算Mq,估計熱帶深對流區變化趨勢,並利用水氣收支(moisture budget)探討其物理機制。
所有資料顯示熱帶對流區於過去數十年間有顯著變化,根據ERA40大氣再分析資料所計算之Mq顯示過去50年期間,全球熱帶深對流邊界有顯著擴張情形發生,每十年南北邊界擴張幅度平均約1.531°/decade,其中又以印度洋-太平洋暖池區之熱帶深對流邊界擴張情形相較於其它區域顯著,過去50年間總擴張幅度約為6.38°~9.53°。利用IPCC AR4模式推估未來百年氣候資料之熱帶深對流邊界分析中,全球熱帶深對流邊界皆有擴張情形發生,每十年南北邊界擴張幅度平均約為0.389°/decade。進一步探討熱帶深對流區邊界擴張之原因發現,在暖化環境下,熱力機制(Mq增加)是造成熱帶對流區擴張主要原因,動力機制(輻合減弱)則扮演部分抵制熱力機制角色。
The Earth’s tropical region is coveredby a year-round warm and moist air thathas long been recognized as the drivingengine of atmospheric general circulationand the action centers of climate variabilityof various time scales, such as the Madden-Julian Oscillation(MJO), El Nino/SouthernOscillation (ENSO) and Pacific DecadalOscillation (PDO). Understanding how thetropical atmosphere changes in response tothe anthropogenic global warming is a veryimportant scientific issue that requires adetailed investigation of many aspects.
While different data show various ranges of expansion, they all suggest that the tropical convective zone indeed experienced a clear poleward movement during the past decades. Based on ERA40, the tropical convective zone experiences a notable poleward expansion trend, with an average rate of approximately 1.51°/decade globally during the period from 1958 to 2001 .The increase of Mq over the tropics results mainly from the thermodynamic effect while the dynamic effect acts to partially offset the former.
Allan, R. P., and B. J. Soden, 2008: Atmospheric Warming and the Amplification of Precipitation Extremes. Science, 321, 1481-1484

Allan, R. P., B. J. Soden, V. O. John, W. Ingram and P. Good, 2010: Current changes in tropical precipitation. Environ. Res. Lett., 5, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/5/2/02520

Bengtsson, L., M. Botzet, and M. Esch, 1996: Will greenhouse gasinduced warming over the next 50 years lead to higher frequency and greater intensity of hurricanes? Tellus, 48A, 57–73.

Chou, Chia, J. David Neelin, Chao-An Chen, Jien-Yi Tu, 2009: Evaluating the “Rich-Get-Richer” Mechanism in Tropical Precipitation Change under Global Warming. J. Climate, 22, 1982–2005.

Dai, A., E. K. Trenberth and T. T. Qian, 2004: A Global Dataset of Palmer Drought Severity Index for 1870-2002: Relationship with Soil Moisture and Effects of Surface Warming. Journal, 5, 1117-1130.

Dee, D. P., S. M. Uppala, A. J. Simmons, P. Berrisford, P. Polia, S. Kobayashi, U. Andraec, M. A. Balmaseda, G. Balsamo, P. Bauer, P. Bechtold, A. C. M. Beljaars, L. van de Berg, J. Bidlot, N. Bormann, C. Delsol, R. Dragani, M. Fuentes, A. J. Geer, L. Haimberger, S. B. Healy, H. Hersbach, E. V. H´olm, L. Isaksen, P. K allberg, M. K ohler, M. Matricardi, A. P. McNally, B. M. Monge-Sanz , J.-J. Morcrette, B.-K. Park, C. Peubey, P. de Rosnay, C. Tavolato, J.-N. Th´epaut and F. Vitart. 2011: The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 137, 553-597.

Dim Coumou, and Stefan Rahmstorf, 2012: A decade of weather extremes. Nature Climate Change, 2, 491–496.

Douville, H., F. Chauvin, S. Planton, J. F. Royer, D. Salas-Me´lia, and S. Tyteca, 2002: Sensitivity of the hydrological cycle to increasing amounts of greenhouse gases and aerosol. Clim. Dyn., 20, 45– 68.

Geert Lenderink, 2012: Climate change: Tropical extremes. Nature Geoscience , 5, 689–690.

Grody, N. C., 1991: Classification of snow cover and precipitation using the Special Sensor Microwave Imager. J. Geophys. Res., 96, 7423-7435.

Haigh, J. D., Blackburn, M., and R. Day, 2005: The response of tropospheric circulation to perturbations in lower-stratospheric temperature. J. Climate, 18, 3672–3685.

Held, I. M., and B. J. Soden, 2006: Robust responses of the hydrological cycle to global warming. J. Climate, 19, 5686–5699.

Hollinger, J., R. Lo, G. Poe, R. Savage, and J. Pierce, 1987: Special Sensor Micro- wave/Imager user’s guide. Naval Research Laboratory Washington, D.C., 120 pp.

Hu, Y., and Fu Q., 2007: Observed poleward expansion of the Hadley circulation since 1979. Atmos. Chem. Phys., 7, 5229-5236.

Hudson R. D., M. F. Andrade, M. B. Follette, and A. D. Frolov , 2006: The total ozone field separated into meteorological regimes – Part II: Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude total ozone trends. Atmos. Chem. Phys., 6, 5183–5191.

Kang, S. M., and Lu Jian, 2012: Expansion of the Hadley Cell under Global Warming: Winter versus Summer. J. Climate, 25, 8387–8393.

Kalnay, E., M. Kanamitsu, R. Kistler, W. Collins, D. Deaven, L. Gandin, M. Iredell, S. Saha, G. White, J. Woollen, Y. Zhu, M. Chelliah, W. Ebisuzaki, W. Higgins, J. Janowiak, K.C. Mo, C. Ropelewski, J. Wang, A. Leetmaa, R. Reynolds, R. Jenne, and D. Joseph, 1996: The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 77, 437-471.

Kistler, R., E. Kalnay, W. Collins, S. Saha, G. White, J. Woollen, M. Chelliah, W. Ebisuzaki, M. Kanamitsu, V. Kousky, H. van den Dool, R. Jenne, and M. Fiorino, 1999: The NCEP-NCAR 50-Year Reanalysis: Monthly Means CD-ROM and Documentation. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 82, 247-26

Kiehl, J. T., and K. E. Trenberth, 1997: Earth's Annual Global Mean Energy Budget. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 78, 197-208.

Lambert, F. H., N. P. Gillett, D. A. Stone, and C. Huntingford, 2005: Attribution studies of observed land precipitation changes with nine coupled models. Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L18704, doi:10.1029/2005GL023654

Liu, C. and R. P. Allan, 2013: Observed and simulated precipitation responses in wet and dry regions 1850–2100. Environ. Res. Lett., 8, 034002 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/034002.

Meehl, G. A., and Coauthors, 2007: Global climate projections. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis, S. Solomon et al., Eds., Cambridge University Press, 747–845.

Neelin, J. D., M. Mu¨nnich, H. Su, J. E. Meyerson, and C. E. Holloway, 2006: Tropical drying trends in global warming models and observations. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A., 103, 6110– 6115.

O'Gorman, P. A., and T. Schneider, 2009: The physical basis for increases in precipitation extremes in simulations of 21st-century climate change. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., 106, 14773-14777

Pachauri, R.K. and Reisinger, 2007: Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. A. (Eds.) IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland. pp 104

Pall, P., Allen, M.R., and D.A. Stone, 2007: Testing the Clausius-Clapeyron constraint on changes in extreme precipitation under CO2 warming. Clim. Dynum., 28, 351–363.

Polvani, L. M., and P. J. Kushner, 2002: Tropospheric response to stratospheric perturbations in a relatively simple general circulation model. Geophys. Res. Lett., 29 , 181-184.

Robock, Alan, 2007: Correction to Volcanic eruptions and climate. Rev. Geophys., 45, RG3005, doi:10.1029/2007RG000232.

Rodgers, E. B., and H. F. Pierce, 1994a: A satellite bservational and numerical study of precipitation characteristics in western North Pacific tropical cyclones. J. Appl. Meteor., 33,129-139.

Saad, Sandra I., Humberto R. da Rocha, Maria A. F. Silva Dias, and Rafael Rosolem, 2010: Can the Deforestation Breeze Change the Rainfall in Amazonia? A Case Study for the BR-163 Highway Region. Earth Interact., 14, 1–25.
Suranjana, and Coauthors, 2010: The NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 91, 1015–1057.

Seidel, D. J., Q. Fu, W. J. Randel, and T. J. Reichler, 2007: Widening of the tropical belt in a changing climate. Nature Geoscience, 1, 21 – 24

Simmons A, Uppala S, Dee D, Kobayashi S. 2006: ERA-Interim: New ECMWF reanalysis products from 1989 onwards. ECMWF Newsletter, 110, 26–35.

Sugi, A. Noda, and N. Sato, 2002: Influence of the global warming on tropical cyclone climatology: An experiment with the JMA global model. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 80, 249–272.

Teng, H., L. E. Buja, and G. A. Meehl, 2006: Twenty-first-century climate change commitment from a multi-model ensemble. Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L07706, doi:10.1029/2005GL024766.

Trenberth, K. E., A. Dai, R. M. Rasmussen, and D. B. Parsons, 2003: The changing character of precipitation. Bull. Am. Met. Soc., 84, 1205-1217.

Vecchi, G. A., and B. J. Soden, 2007: Global warming and the weakening of the tropical circulation. J. Climate, 20, 4316–4340.

Webster, P. J., G. J. Holland, J. A. Curry, and H. R Chang, 2005: Changes in Tropical Cyclone Number, Duration, and Intensity in a Warming Environment. Science, 309, 1844-1846.

Wentz, F. J., L. Ricciardulli, K. Hilburn, and C. Mears, 2007: How much more rain will global warming bring? Science, 317, 233–235.

Yin, J. H., 2005: A consistent poleward shift of the storm tracks in simulations of 21st century climate. Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L18701. doi:10.1029/2005GL023684

Yu, J.-Y., and J. D. Neelin, 1994: Modes of tropical variability under convective adjustment and the Madden–Julian oscillation. PartII: Numerical results. J. Atmos. Sci., 51, 1895–1914.

Yu, J.-Y., and J. D. Neelin, 1997: Analytic approximations for moist convectively adjusted regions. J. Atmos. Sci., 54, 1054–1063.

Yu, J.-Y., C. Chou, and J. D. Neelin, 1998: Estimating the gross moist stability of the tropical atmosphere. J. Atmos. Sci., 55, 1354-1372.

Uppala, S., Kållberg, P., Hernandez, A., Saarinen, S., Fiorino, M., Li, X., Onogi, K., Sokka, N., Andrae, U. and Da Costa Bechtold, V. 2004 ‘ERA-40: ECMWF's 45-year reanalysis of the global atmosphere and surface conditions 1957–2002’. Pp. 2–21 in ECMWF Newsletter No. 101. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Shinfield, Reading, UK

Zhang, X., F. W. Zwiers, G. C. Hegerl, F. H. Lambert, N. P. Gillett, S. Solomon, P. A. Stott, and T. Nozawa, 2007: Detection of human influence on twentieth-century precipitation trends. Nature, 448, 461–465.


 
 
 
 
第一頁 上一頁 下一頁 最後一頁 top