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題名:時代背景及環境因子對犯罪數量之影響-從環境犯罪學視角分析西雅圖犯罪
作者:林宗鍵
作者(外文):LIN ,TSUNG-CHIEN
校院名稱:國立中正大學
系所名稱:犯罪防治研究所
指導教授:許華孚
學位類別:博士
出版日期:2017
主題關鍵詞:環境犯罪學對應分析群集分析多變量迴歸樹Environmental criminologyCorrespondence analysisCluster analysisMultivariate Regression Trees
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
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為了了解西雅圖地區的犯罪趨勢及分佈,本研究利用1989-2004年西雅圖80個普查單位的犯罪數量及環境資料,進行分析研究。結果發現「收入中位數」的差異所造成「經濟不平等」,是西雅圖不同普查單位犯罪數量差異的主要原因;普查單位在「脫貧過程」中所造成的犯罪數量波動,是造成西雅圖大部分普查單位治安品質變動的原因,但這樣的效應在治安最好和最差的區域並不明顯,且上述環境因素及治安品質具有時間上的穩定性。另外,在1989-1991年及1999-2001年這兩個不同時期,因人口數、人口密度增加及都市化的過程中所引發的效應及犯罪動機,使得「人口數」和「失業人口比例」這兩個變項,成為影響不同普查單位犯罪數量差異的顯著因子。
In this study, we analyze the crime data and environmental characteristics on 80 Seattle census tracts from 1989 to 2004 to find out the crime trends and distribution in Seattle. The result shows that the main factor affecting the crime rates in different census areas is “median income”, which may contribute to unequal financial capacity. The findings also suggest that the quality of public security in the majority of census units was influenced by the fluctuation of crime rates which may be caused by the process of gentrification in these areas. However, this phenomenon was not obvious in the safest and most dangerous areas. Also, the environmental condition and the quality of public security in these regions did not change over time. On the other hand, during the periods 1989 to 1991 and 1999 to 2001, the two variables including “the number of population” and “the proportion of unemployed people” were found to be the significant factors affecting the crime rates in different census areas, which is due to population growth, the increase of population density and the process of urbanization, all these factors above might lead to an increase in crime.
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