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題名:台灣包容性金融與經濟成長之研究
作者:莫積懿 引用關係
作者(外文):Ji-Yi Mo
校院名稱:國立中山大學
系所名稱:中國與亞太區域研究所
指導教授:林德昌
學位類別:博士
出版日期:2019
主題關鍵詞:虛擬經濟指數包容性金融包容性金融指數包容性成長虛擬經濟包容性發展指數包容性發展Inclusive FinanceInclusive Finance Index (IFI)inclusive growthInclusive DevelopmentFictitious EconomyFictitious Economy Index ( FEI)Inclusive Development Index (IDI)
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1970至1990年代,台灣經歷快速的國民所得成長、穩定的失業率和物價膨脹率,伴隨相對平均的所得分配,被譽為「經濟奇蹟」,更於1980年代成為亞洲四小龍之首。時至今日,薪資水準對照鄰近國家是日益低落,人均GDP更落於四小龍之末。此外,所得五分位比值、吉尼係數及最低最高五分位所得組所得份額之變化,皆顯示貧者益貧、富者益富的現象。台灣不但經濟成長呈現停滯情況,也面臨貧富差距擴大的問題。面對經濟成長停滯與貧富不均擴大時,國際組織與學界皆主張採用包容性成長與發展解決。包容性金融是包容性成長在經濟金融領域的一項具體措施,故本文認為發展包容性金融是值得台灣關注的議題。本文先以文獻研析結果做為實證的理論依據,再進行實證研究。
為了解台灣包容性金融與包容性成長發展的情況,本文首先計算台灣的包容性發展指數與包容性金融指數並進行跨國排名。在與高所得經濟體比較後,證實台灣在包容性成長及包容性金融方面皆有發展的空間。實證方面則先取貨幣供給量驗證台灣貨幣金融為非中立性後,繼而編製台灣虛擬經濟指數並進行驗證,結果顯示台灣金融發展對經濟具有正向效果,惟貧富不均卻相對惡化。接著以跨國資料研究包容性金融的影響,發現高所得經濟體的包容性金融發展越佳者,其經濟成長相對較好且貧富差距相對較緩和。最後編製台灣包容性金融指數再進行驗證後,發現台灣包容性金融成長對經濟具有正面效果;而金融海嘯發生前,亦即在正常金融經濟環境下,台灣包容性金融成長有助於改善貧富不均。
本文最後建議:推展金融科技以進一步提升金融包容性,推動經濟成長。落實技職教育降低學用落差以提升勞動品質,進而提高薪資,縮小貧富差距。
From decades 1970 to 1990, Taiwan experienced rapid growth of national economy, lower unemployment rate and inflation rate, together with a relative equal income distribution, it was honored the “economic miracle” and the leader of the Asia Four Little Dragons. Today, salary is on the wane compared with neighbor countries, Average GDP has slid to the last place among the 4 little dragons. Besides, judged from the ratio of 5-division national income, Gini coefficient, and the income change of the lower 20% to top 20%, it reveals the phenomenon of the poor get poorer the rich get richer. Taiwan faces not only economy stagnation but also the widening gap of the poor and the rich. To solve economy stagnation and widening gap between the haves and have-nots, both international organizations and academy suggest the Inclusive growth and Development. Inclusive finance is a practical mean in the economic financial area of inclusive growth; therefore, this thesis considers the inclusive finance is a worthy topic for Taiwan. In this thesis first a theory was constructed from literature reviews then followed by empirical research.
To understand the current situation of inclusive finance and the inclusive growth, this thesis calculates the inclusive development index (IDI) and the inclusive finance index (IFI), then conduct an international ranking. After comparing with higher income economies, it can be inferenced that Taiwan has the potential for inclusive growth and inclusive finance. In the empirical study, after proving that the monetary supply is not neutral for Taiwanese monetary finance, the Fictitious Economy Index (FEI) is prepared for verification. The results reveal a positive effect of financial development on economic development for Taiwan, but the inequality of the poor and rich is getting worse. Then multination data are used to study the influence of inclusive finance, it shows that among the higher income economies, the better the inclusive finance the better the economic growth and lesser difference of the poor and rich. Finally, the Inclusive finance index of Taiwan is prepared and verified, the inclusive finance growth of Taiwan has positive effect on economic growth, before finance tsunami, that is, under normal finance economic environment, gap between the poor and rich in Taiwan can be improved by the inclusive financial growth.
In conclusion, this thesis suggests that promoting financial technologies to improve financial inclusiveness then support the economic growth. Fulfill vocational education to narrow the gap of education and practical skills so to improve working quality then raise personal salary to narrow the income gap of the poor and rich.
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