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題名：中國保險市場發展與經濟成長關聯性之實證研究-小波分析應用
作者：李文傑
作者(外文)：LI,WEN-JIE
校院名稱：逢甲大學
系所名稱：金融博士學位學程
指導教授：張倉耀
學位類別：博士
出版日期：2020
主題關鍵詞：保險；經濟成長；小波分析；insurance；economic growth；wavelet analysis
原始連結：連回原系統網址new window
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本研究係運用小波分析法探討中國保險市場發展與經濟成長關聯性之實證研究，研究樣本期間採自1999年第一季至2019年第二季。本文將保險市場依中國保險行業特性區分為人身保險、非人身保險及總保險，並進一步探討加入開放程度做為控制變數後，中國保險市場發展與經濟成長之相互關係，分析各變數在短期與長期之間的因果關係。
抽樣時間為1999年至2019年，正好是中國保險市場從封閉市場進入開放市場的時間，通過小波分析進行此項研究，我們得出以下結果：如果僅考慮保險市場的發展和中國經濟趨勢，在短期內，總保險、人身及非人身保險市場發展與經濟成長均呈現相互領先的因果關係且具有高度相關的關係。事實證明，保險資金注入是一種穩定的效應，各行各業通過保險產品轉移經營風險，當發生事故時，他們可以及時從保險公司那裡獲得賠償，加快恢復經營，刺激了經濟的增長。在長期因果關係的觀察上，中國保險市場發展在2005年之前呈現保險市場發展帶動經濟成長，而在2006年和2007年的抽樣時期，經濟增長推動了保險市場的發展。但2007年後兩者之間便不存在因果關係。
在模型中加入開放程度作為控制變數後，短期內結果呈現在2001年到2007年之間保險市場發展與經濟成長間呈現破裂和不連續分佈，表明此段期間保險市場發展與經濟增長之間的關係不明顯，主因是中國於2001年加入WTO之後，基於公平和互惠的原則，中國必須在五年的過渡時期後完全開放市場以平等對待所有人，期間有受到政策性及外力干擾因素，但2007年過後便趨於穩定，在呈現出保險市場發展與經濟成長互有領先之因果關係。另就觀察長期間的干擾則較不明顯。
在金融領域裡，保險扮演安定且重要的功能，但在金融與經濟成長文獻中卻時常被忽視。本文突破且首次採用小波分析方法有效的探討保險市場發展與經濟成長之間的關係，以供後續研究參考之重要價值。
This is an empirical study to discuss the relationship of development in China insurance market and the growth of economy by using wavelet analysis. The sampling period is taken from the first quarter of 1999 to the second quarter of 2019. We divided insurance market by the characteristics of China insurance industries as Life insurance, Non-Life insurance and General Insurance, then we also put market openness as a control variable to observe the relationship of development of insurance market and the growth of economy, to find out the causal relationship of each variable whatever short term or in a long period.
1999 to 2019 is just in time of China insurance market from a closed market into an open market, through this study by wavelet analysis, we found out the following results: if we considerate the development of insurance market and the trend of economy of China only, there is a highly correlated relationship in a short term. It prove that the insurance capital infusion is a stable affection, kinds of industries transfer their operational risk via insurance products, when an accident occurred, they could get the compensation from insurance company in time , to accelerate operate as normal, stimulated the growth of economy. If we observed in a long period, the result is the development of insurance market to drive the growth of economy, when the sampling period is before 2005; and the growth of economy drive the development of insurance market, when the sampling period is during 2006 and 2007; however there is no causal relationship between these two factors after 2007.
Add market openness as a control variable into the model, the result is broken and distribute discontinuously, it shown the relationship between development of insurance market and the growth of economy is not obvious in a short term, the main reason is that China is a member of World Trade Origination (WTO) after 2001, based on the fair and reciprocal principle, China have to open their market to treat everyone equally during the 5 year accordingly, and the domestic market is booming at the same time. Subject to the policy and external interference, the market was becoming steady after 2007, and there is no causal relationship between the development of insurance and growth of economy in a long term.
Insurance play as a stable and important tool in the field of finance. However it is always overlooked on the literature of financial or the growth of economy. This study is the first article to discuss the relationship between the development of insurance market and the growth of economy by using wavelet analysis. Believe it could be an useful reference and it is worth to have more studies.
參考文獻
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王姿若(2014)經濟成長風險與國家金融開放程度的關係國立臺中科技大學 財務金融研究所碩士論文
艾米勒(2011)貿易開放與金融：中國外貿對拉丁美洲金融發展的影響，私立淡江大學財務金融學系碩士論文
吳佩珊(2005)金磚四國金融發展、開放程度與經濟成長間因果關係之非線性模型應用私立靜宜大學財務金融研究所碩士論文
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