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題名：高速鐵路由台北延伸至宜蘭經濟影響：以可計算一般均衡分析
作者：郭春河
作者(外文)：Kuo, Chun-Ho
校院名稱：國立清華大學
系所名稱：經濟學系
指導教授：廖肇寧
學位類別：博士
出版日期：2021
主題關鍵詞：可計算一般均衡模型；高速鐵路；社會會計矩陣；投入產出分析；Computable General Equilibrium；High-Speed Rail；Social Accounting Matrix；Input-Output Analysis
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台灣為平衡城鄉差異並促進東部發展，計畫投資新台幣1,764億元，建造由台北南港至宜蘭的高速鐵路，本文除研究此類大型之公共投資是否對於經濟能產生預期之正面影響外，並建構了一個含17產業部門的台灣地區及宜花東地區社會會計矩陣，作為未來進行宜花東地區政策模擬之分析基礎。本研究以單國靜態一般均衡模型(Computable General Equilibrium, CGE) 的方法進行下列兩種模擬，評估高鐵延伸投資案的直接效果：第一種情境是以高鐵延伸投資案的投資金額對於台灣地區的一般均衡模型進行衝擊，第二種情境是依照高鐵在宜花東生產總值的比例分配投資金額，對宜花東地區一般均衡模型進行衝擊。本研究首先參考國外的資料拆分高鐵投資的成本結構；其次，定義產業別及地區別，再依照產業部門別建構台灣地區及宜花東地區的社會會計矩陣，最後以General Algebraic Modeling System程式平台對CGE模型進行模擬分析。
第一種情境模擬發現，投資案將使國內生產毛額增加新台幣221,052百萬元，增加1.206%，投資乘數為1.682，進口增加新台幣143,996百萬元，增加1.445%，這可能與高鐵主要設備大多仰賴進口有關，表示在高鐵建設時，若能加強技術移轉，對於經濟發展應有幫助。另外，台灣所有產業的產值都會增加，其中以營建部門增加5.74%最多，增加金額為新台幣94,162百萬元，其次為金屬部門增加3.44%，增加金額為新台幣90,275百萬元。第二種情境顯示該案對宜花東地區之國內生產毛額增加新台幣3,080百萬元，增加1.111%，投資乘數為1.2，宜花東地區所有產業的產值亦都會增加，以營建部門增加5.1%最多，增加金額為新台幣2,446百萬元，其次為金屬部門增加3.62%，增加金額為新台幣581百萬元，運輸部門及住宿部門雖然都沒有新增投資，但其產值分別增加了新台幣197百萬元及新台幣308百萬元，顯見延伸案投資對於地區旅遊有促進作用。儘管如此，上述兩種情境皆顯示該案產生的投資乘數都不大，代表擴大政府公共投資支出用以促進經濟成長的直接效果有限，但此交通建設投資應仍能對促進東西均衡發展及改善區域交通發揮一定影響力。
In order to lower the gap between urban and rural areas and promote eastern Taiwan development, the government plans to invest NT$176.4 billion to extend the high-speed railway from Taipei’s Nangang to Yilan. This article examines whether such large-scale public investment can have the expected impacts on the economy. In addition, the study contributes the current literatures by creating a social accounting matrix (SAM) of Taiwan and Eastern Taiwan with 17 sectors that can serve as the database for analyzing government development policies related to Eastern Taiwan. This research uses the single-country static computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to conduct the following two simulations to evaluate the direct effects of the high-speed rail extension investment. Scenario 1 simulates the impact of the extension investment on the overall economic performance in Taiwan. Scenario 2 focuses mainly on the economic impact of the investment on Eastern Taiwan. To accomplish the goals, we firstly refer to foreign data to disassemble the cost structure of high-speed rail investment; secondly, define the industry sectors and geographic areas, and then construct the social accounting matrix of Taiwan and Eastern Taiwan according to the industry sectors, and finally use the General Algebraic Modeling System program platform to simulate and analyze the CGE model.
The simulation results for scenario 1 show that the investment will increase the gross domestic production by 1.206% to the total of NT$221,052 million. The investment multiplier in this case is 1.682. The import will increase by 1.445% to NT$143,996 million. Since the main high-speed rail equipment relies on imports, it implies that such investment should be more helpful to our economic development if some technology transfers would occur during the construction process. In addition, the output value of all industries in Taiwan will increase, of which the construction sector increased by 5.74% the most, with an increase of NT$94,162 million, followed by the metal sector with an increase of 3.44%, with an increase of NT$90,275 million. Scenario 2 indicates that the investment will increase the gross domestic product of Eastern Taiwan by 1.111% to the total of NT$3,080 million and the investment multiplier is 1.2. The output value of all industries in Eastern Taiwan will also increase. The 5.1% increase in the construction sector is the highest, followed by the metal sector with an increase of 3.62%. The output value of these two sectors will increase to NT$2,446 million and NT$581 million, respectively. Although there is no new investment in the transportation sector and the accommodation sector, their output values increase by NT$197 million and NT$308 million in scenario 2. It means that the investment will promote regional tourism. The above two scenarios show that the investment multipliers generated by the extension investment are not large. Therefore, we can conclude that the direct effect of expanding government public expenditure for promoting economic growth is limited. Nevertheless, the investment should still be able to balance the economic development and improve the traffic condition within different regions in Taiwan.
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