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題名:中國大陸地區技術進步與經濟增長的關聯性—以四川省為例
作者:林岳龍
作者(外文):Yueh-Lung Lin
校院名稱:國立臺灣大學
系所名稱:國家發展研究所
指導教授:謝邦昌
吳秀玲
學位類別:博士
出版日期:2021
主題關鍵詞:技術進步人力資本做中學研發型人才用工荒就業難Technological ProgressHuman CapitalLearning by DoingR & D TalentsLabor shortageDifficult Employment
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中國大陸四川省是中國西部人口最多的省分,在中國大陸改革開放後,人均產出增長落後於其全國平均水準,其中技術進步要素在產出增長中作用的弱化是重要原因。20世紀後,四川省採用各種政策措施促進技術進步,包括成立推動重點城市的產學研用聯盟、軍用技術轉為民用技術、各類金融創新工具和技術發明、研究的整合等。此外,近十幾年來,四川省廣泛建立新型工業園區和科技創新育成中心,集約化科技創新產業發展。
本論文研究中國大陸地區四川省1978年以來技術進步與經濟增長的關聯性,以Lucas、Romer等為代表的內生增長模型為基礎,就技術進步貢獻中的「做中學」(Learning by Doing)進行創新。本論文首先認為,技術進步對產出增長的影響可以分為人力資本存量和一般性技術水準兩種;前者透過技術性支出形成,主要用於企業自主創新,而後者則是透過「做中學」形成,主要進行企業的生產活動。其次,本論文認為四川省雖然投入大量的教育經費,但是技術外溢現象對四川省人均產出增長的貢獻率仍不足,原因如下:第一,「做中學」行為並未與人力資本互相搭配;第二,技術創新環境和政策環境的弱化,導致該省的研發型人才流失。
為檢驗模型的平穩性,本論文在四川省的產出模型基礎上構建24個VAR模型,每個模型的時間跨度為20年,結果發現其中18個模型是共整合的,說明四川省的技術進步綜合要素和人均產出間存在長期均衡關係。此外,本論文對這些VAR模型分別進行Johansen共整合檢定(Johansen Cointegration Test)、格蘭傑因果關係檢定(Granger Causality Test)與脈衝回應(Impulse Response Function)分析。結合分析結果,本論文認為:四川省的技術進步效應主要來自人力資本存量的增加;針對中國大陸目前「用工荒」和「就業難」問題,以及人才與勞工之間的貧富差距問題,在政策上提出:政府應選擇適當的教育投資方案,妥善分配各級教育體制資源的比例,以及應控制研發型勞工在各部門間的流動等建議。
以四川省為例,本論文發現開發中國家若欲提高經濟增長,可以著重下列各點:第一,對科創企業在金融政策、稅收政策上的支援;第二,積極營造良好的科創產業營運環境,以提高技術溢出效應;第三,持續促進企業、研究機構之間的聯動發展;第四,注重在區域協同發展中擴大技術交流與合作;第五,提高科技成果轉化。
Sichuan Province is the most populous province in Western China. After the reform and opening up in mainland China, the growth of per capita output lags behind the national average. The weakening of the role of technological progress in output growth is an important reason. Since the beginning of the new century, Sichuan Province has adopted various policies and measures to promote technological progress, including incentives for alliances of industry, universities and research in key cities, incentives for conversion of military technology to civilian use, incentives for integration of various financial innovation tools and technological inventions, and research. In addition, For more than a decade, Sichuan Province has taken the method of intensive development of science and technology innovation industry in the form of establishing new industrial parks and incubators of science and technology innovation in a wide range of provinces.
This paper studies the relationship between technological progress and economic growth in Sichuan Province of mainland China since 1978. Based on the Endogenous Growth Model represented by Lucas and Romer, this paper makes some innovations on “learning by doing” in the contribution of technological progress. Firstly, this paper argues that the impact of technological progress on output growth can be divided into two types: human capital stock and general technological level. The former is formed through technological expenditure, which is mainly used for independent innovation of enterprises, while the latter is formed through “learning by doing”, which is mainly used for enterprises' production activities. Secondly, although Sichuan Province has invested a lot of education funds, the contribution rate of technology spillover to per capita output growth is still insufficient. The reasons are as follows: first, “learning by doing” behavior does not match with human capital; second, the weakening of technological innovation environment and policy environment leads to the loss of R & D talents in Sichuan Province.
In order to test the stationarity of the model, this paper constructs 24 VAR models based on the output model of Sichuan Province, and the time span of each model is 20 years. The results show that 18 models are co-integrated, which indicates that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the comprehensive factors of technological progress and per capita output in Sichuan Province. In addition, this paper conducts Johansen Integration Test, Granger Causality Test and Impulse Response Function on these VAR models. Combined with the analysis results, this paper holds that: the technological progress effect of Sichuan Province mainly comes from the increase of human capital stock; in view of the current “labor shortage” and “employment difficulty” in mainland China, as well as the gap between the rich and the poor between talents and labor, the paper puts forward that the government should choose appropriate education investment scheme, properly allocate the proportion of education system resources at all levels, and we should control the flow of R & D workers among different departments.
Taking Sichuan Province as an example, this paper finds that if developing countries want to improve their economic growth, they can focus on the following aspects: first, financial policy and tax policy support for scientific and technological innovation enterprises; second, actively create a good operating environment for scientific and technological innovation industry to improve the technology spillover effect; third, continue to promote the cooperation between enterprises and research institutions; fourth, we should pay attention to expanding technological exchanges and cooperation in regional collaborative development; fifth, improve the transformation of scientific and technological achievements.
壹、中文部分
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六、官方出版品
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經濟合作發展組織(2015),《弗拉斯卡蒂手冊(Frascati Manual)》,網址:https://www.oecd.org/sti/inno/frascati-manual.htm。檢索日期:2019年3月28日。
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貳、英文部分
一、專書
Aghion, Philippe and Peter Howitt (1997). Endogenous Growth Theory. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
Becker, Gary Stanley (1964). Human Capital: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis, with Special Reference to Education. New York: Columbia University Press.
Denison, Edward Fulton (1962). The Sources of Economic Growth in the United States and the Alternatives before Us. New York: Committee for Economic Development.
Hicks, John (1932). The Theory of Wages. London: Macmillan.
Harrod R. F. (1948). Towards a Dynamic Economics: Some Recent Developments of Economic Theory and Their Application to Policy. London: Macmillian.
Kendrick, John W. (1961). Productivity Trends in the United States. Princeton, N. J.: Princeton University Press.
Maddison, Angus (1982). Phases of Capitalist Development. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Mincer, Jacob A. (1974). Schooling, Experience, and Earnings. New York: Columbia University Press.
Schumpeter, Joseph A. (1934). The Theory of Economic Development: An Inquiry Into Profits, Capital, Credit, Interest, and The Business Cycle. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.
二、期刊論文
Aghion, Philippe and Peter Howitt (1992). “A Model of Growth through Creative Destruction.” Econometrica, Vol. 60, No. 2, pp. 323-351.
Aghion, Philippe and Peter Howitt (1994). “Growth and Unemployment.” The Review of Economic Studies, Vol. 61, No. 3, pp. 477-494.
Acemoglu, Daron and Fabrizio Zilibotti (2001). “Productivity Differences.” The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 116, No. 2, pp. 563-606.
Aigner, Dennis J. and S. F. Chu (1968). “On Estimating the Industry Production Function.” The American Economic Review, Vol. 58, No. 4, pp. 826-839.
Arnold, Lutz G. (1998). “Growth, Welfare, and Trade in an Integrated Model of Human-Capital Accumulation and Research.” Journal of Macroeconomics, Vol. 20, No. 1, pp. 81-105.
Arrow, Kenneth J. (1962). “The Economic Implications of Learning by Doing.” The Review of Economic Studies, Vol. 29, No. 3, pp. 155-173.
Atkinson, Anthony B. and Joseph E. Stiglitz (1969). “A New View of Technological Change.” The Economic Journal, Vol. 79, No. 315, pp. 573-578.
Barro, Robert J. and Jong-Wha Lee (1993). “International Comparisons of Educational Attainment.” Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 32, No. 3, pp. 363-394.
Barro, Robert J. and Xavier Sala-i-Martin (1997). “Technological Diffusion, Convergence, and Growth.” Journal of Economic Growth, Vol. 2, No. 1, pp. 1-26.
Bartel, Ann P. and Frank R. Lichtenberg (1987). “The Comparative Advantage of Educated Workers in Implementing New Technology.” The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 69, No. 1, pp. 1-11.
Basu, Susanto and David N. Weil (1998). “Appropriate Technology and Growth.” The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 113, No. 4, pp. 1025-1054.
Benhabib, Jess and Mark M. Spiegel (1994). “The Role of Human Capital in Economic Development: Evidence from Aggregate Cross-Country Data.” Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 34, No. 2, pp. 143-173.
Blackburn, Keith, Victor T. Y. Hung, and Alberto F. Pozzolo (2000). “Research, Development and Human Capital Accumulation.” Journal of Macroeconomics, Vol. 22, No. 2, pp. 189-206.
Caballero, Ricardo J. (1993). “Durable Goods: An Explanation for Their Slow Adjustment.” Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 101, No. 2, pp. 351–384.
Cass, David (1965). “Optimum Growth in an Aggregative Model of Capital Accumulation.” The Review of Economic Studies, Vol 32, No. 3, pp. 233-240.
Caselli, Francesco and Wilbur John Coleman (2001). “Cross-Country Technology Diffusion: The Case of Computers.” American Economic Review, Vol. 91, No. 2, pp. 328-335.
Caselli, Francesco and Wilbur John Coleman II (2001). “The U.S. Structural Transformation and Regional Convergence: A Reinterpretation.” Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 109, No. 3, pp. 584-616.
Caselli, Francesco and Daniel J. Wilson (2004). “Importing technology.” Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 51, No. 1, pp. 1-32.
De Long, J. Bradford and Lawrence H. Summers (1991). “Equipment Investment and Economic Growth.” The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 106, No. 2, pp. 445-502.
Diamond, Peter A. (1965). “National Debt in a Neoclassical Growth Model.” The American Economic Review, Vol. 55, No. 5, pp. 1126-1150.
Diwan, Ishac and Dani Rodrik (1991). “Patents, Appropriate Technology, and North-South Trade.” Journal of International Economics, Vol. 30, No. 1-2, pp. 27-47.
Domar, Evsey D. (1946). “Capital Expansion, Rate of Growth, and Employment.”Econometrica, Vol. 14, No. 2, pp. 137-147.
Eicher, Theo S. (1996). “Interaction Between Endogenous Human Capital and Technological Change.” The Review of Economic Studies, Vol. 63, No. 1, pp. 127-144.
Färe, Rolf, Shawna Grosskopf, Mary Norris, and Zhongyang Zhang (1994). “Productivity Growth, Technical Progress, and Efficiency Change in Industrialized Countries.” The American Economic Review, Vol. 84, No. 1, pp. 66-83.
Farrell, Michael James (1957). “The Measurement of Productive Efficiency.” Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A (General), Vol. 120, No. 3, pp. 253-290.
Granger, C. W. J. (1981). “Some Properties of Time Series Data and Their Use in Econometric Model Specification.” Journal of Econometrics, Vol. 16, No. 1, pp. 121-130.
Griffith, Garry (2000). “Competition in the Food Marketing Chain.” The Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Econominics, Vol. 44, No. 2, pp. 333-367.
Hall, Robert E. and Charles I. Jones (1999). “Why Do Some Countries Produce So Much More Output Per Worker Than Others?” The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 114, No. 1, pp. 83-116.
Inada, Ken-Ichi (1963). “On a Two-Sector Model of Economic Growth: Comments and a Generalization.” The Review of Economic Studies, Vol. 30, No. 2, pp. 119-127.
Johansen, Søren (1988). “Statistical Analysis of Cointegration Vectors.” Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Vol. 12, No. 2-3, pp. 231-254.
Johansen, Søren (1991). “Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models.” Econometrica, Vol. 59, No. 6, pp. 1551-1580.
Kaldor, Nicholas and James A. Mirrlees (1962). “A New Model of Economic Growth.” The Review of Economic Studies, Vol. 29, No. 3, pp. 174-192.
Keller, Wolfgang (2002). “Geographic Localization of International Technology Diffusion.” American Economic Review, Vol. 92, No. 1, pp. 120-142.
Kennedy, Charles (1964). “Induced Bias in Innovation and the Theory of Distribution.” The Economic Journal, Vol. 74, No. 295, pp. 541-547.
Lee, Maw-lin, Ben-Chieh Liu, and Ping Wang (1994). “Education, Human Capital Enhancement and Economic Development: Comparison between Korea and Taiwan.” Economics of Education Review, Vol. 13, No. 4, pp. 275-288.
Lucas, Jr., Robert E. (1988). “On the Mechanics of Economic Development.” Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 22, No. 1, pp. 3-42.
Lin, Yueh-lung, Yu-jen Hsiao, Kuan-chen Chen, and Shih-Jie Lin (2019). “How Digital Banking Affects Output and Performance at European Commercial Banks.” Journal of Financial Studies, Vol. 27, No. 4, pp. 89-110.
Los, Bart and Marcel P. Timmer (2005). “The ‘Appropriate Technology’ Explanation of Productivity Growth Differentials: An Empirical Approach.” Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 77, No. 2, pp. 517-531.
Mankiw, N. Gregory, David Romer, and David N. Weil (1992). “A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth.” The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 107, No. 2, pp. 407-437.
Nelson, Richard R. and Edmund S. Phelps (1966). “Investment in Humans, Technological Diffusion, and Economic Growth.” The American Economic Review, Vol. 56, No. 1/2, pp. 69-75.
Obstfeld, Maurice (1981). “Capital Mobility and Devaluation in an Optimizing Model with Rational Expectations.” The American Economic Review, Vol. 71, No. 2, pp. 217-221.
Obstfeld, Maurice (1982). “Aggregate Spending and the Terms of Trade: Is There a Laursen-Metzler Effect?” The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 97, No. 2, pp. 251-270.
Obstfeld, Maurice (1990). “Intertemporal Dependence, Impatience, and Dynamics.” Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 26, No. 1, pp. 45-75.
Ray, Subhash C. and Evangelia Desli (1997) “Productivity Growth, Technical Progress, and Efficiency Change in Industrialized Countries: Comment.” The American Economic Review, Vol. 87, No. 5, pp. 1033-1039.
Ramsey, F. P. (1928). “A Mathematical Theory of Saving.” The Economic Journal, Vol. 38, No. 152, pp. 543-559.
Redding, Stephen (1996). “The Low-Skill, Low-Quality Trap: Strategic Complementarities between Human Capital and R&D.” The Economic Journal, Vol. 106, No. 435, pp. 458-470.
Romer, Paul M. (1986). “Increasing Returns and Long-Run Growth.” Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 94, No. 5, pp. 1002-1037.
Romer, Paul M. (1990). “Endogenous Technological Change.” Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 98, No. 5, pp. S71-S102.
Romer, Paul M. (1994). “The Origins of Endogenous Growth.” The Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 8, No. 1, pp. 3-22.
Samuelson, Paul A. (1958). “An Exact Consumption-Loan Model of Interest with or without the Social Contrivance of Money.” Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 66, No. 6, pp. 467-482.
Schmidt, Peter (1976). “On the Statistical Estimation of Parametric Frontier Production Functions.” The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 58, No. 2, pp. 238-239.
Schultz, Theodore W. (1961). “Investment in Human Capital.” The American Economic Review, Vol. 51, No. 1, pp. 1-17.
Solow, Robert Merton (1956). “A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth.” The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 70, No. 1, pp. 65-94.
Solow, Robert Merton (1957). “Technical Change and the Aggregate Production Function.” The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 39, No. 3, pp. 312-320.
Sims, Christopher A. (1980). “Macroeconomics and Reality.” Econometrica, Vol. 48, No. 1, pp. 1-48.
Stiglitz, Joseph E. (2011). “Rethinking Macroeconomics: What Failed, and How to Repair it.” Journal of the European Economic Association, Vol. 9, No. 4, pp. 591-645.
Stokey, Nancy L. (1991). “Human Capital, Product Quality, and Growth.” The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 106, No. 2, pp. 587-616.
Swan, Trevor Winchester (1956). “Economic Growth and Capital Accumulation.” Economic Record, Vol. 32, No. 2, pp. 334-361.
Uzawa, Hirofumi (1963). “On a Two-Sector Model of Economic Growth II.” The Review of Economic Studies, Vol. 30, No. 2, pp. 105-118.
Uzawa, Hirofumi (1965). “Optimum Technical Change in An Aggregative Model of Economic Growth.” International Economic Review, Vol. 6, No. 1, pp. 18-31.
Weil, David (2011). “Enforcing Labour Standards in Fissured Workplaces: The US Experience.” The Economic and Labour Relations Review, Vol. 22, No. 2, pp. 33-54.
Wozniak, Gregory D. (1984). “The adoption of interrelated innovations: A Human Capital Approach.” The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 66, No. 1, pp. 70-79.
Xie, Danyang (1991). “Increasing Returns and Increasing Rates of Growth.” Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 99, No. 2, pp. 429-435.
三、編著論文
Bucci, Alberto (2005). “Human Capital, Product Market Power and Economic Growth.” In Neri Salvadori and Renato Balducci (eds.), Innovation, Unemployment and Policy in the Theories of Growth and Distribution, pp. 1-26. Edward Elgar Publishing.
Benhabib, Jess and Mark M. Spiegel (2005). “Human Capital and Technology Diffusion.” In Philippe Aghion and Steven N. Durlauf (eds.), Handbook of Economic Growth- Volume 1A, pp. 935-966. North-Holland: Elsevier.
Kaldor, Nicholas (1961). “Capital Accumulation and Economic Growth.” In F. A. Lutz and D. C. Hague (eds.), The Theory of Capital, pp. 177-222. New York: St. Martin’s Press.
Klenow, Peter J. and Andrés Rodríguez-Clare (1997). “The Neoclassical Revival in Growth Economics: Has It Gone Too Far?” In NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997- Volume 12, pp. 73-114. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research.
 
 
 
 
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