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題名:運用智能技術於消金授信資產分級暨違約預警領域之研究
作者:朱原德
作者(外文):CHU,YUAN-DE
校院名稱:東吳大學
系所名稱:經濟學系
指導教授:林維垣
學位類別:博士
出版日期:2020
主題關鍵詞:資料採礦資產分級違約預警大數據人工智慧支持向量回歸主成分分析線性回歸線性區別分析決策樹支持向量機類神經網路果蠅最佳化演算法Data MiningAsset ClassificationPrewarning of DefaultBig DataArtificial IntelligenceSupport Vector RegressionPrincipal Component AnalysisLinear ModelLinear Discriminant AnalysisDecision TreesSupport Vector MachinesNeural NetworksFruit fly optimization algorithm
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過往銀行在風險管理上多以專家經驗判斷為主,而羅吉斯回歸分析為現行普遍使用之評等技術。近十年來有關「資料採礦」領域之演算法已逐步應用於「風險管理、客戶分群、行銷推薦、股票預測、關聯分析」等領域上,再加上R、Python等免費程式的廣泛使用,對於過往學者僅使用SAS、SPSS、Eviews 、Matlab等付費套裝軟體而言實為一衝擊與挑戰。加上近幾年來,電腦運算速度不斷在提升,資料暨數據累積亦呈倍數增長,大數據分析技術與應用也更為普遍,人工智慧技術業已邁入多元發展領域與階段。本篇論文研究撰寫過程中,亦思考者在擁抱大數據的同時,也同時加入資料採礦分析的新思維,期許於銀行業務推展暨風險管理上或學術研究領域上能激發新的發展與嶄獲!
本人經過這幾年在林維垣教授指導研習期間共同發表了兩篇期刊論文。第一篇論文題目為「人工智慧技術於企業財務診斷」,係應用企業財務指標進行破產預測,軟體包含Eviews、SPSS、Matlab等。實證過程中除運用傳統羅吉斯回歸模型(Logistic Regression;Logit)進行統計分析外,另採用倒傳遞類神經網路(Back-Propagation Neural Network;BPN)、廣義回歸類神經網路(Generalized Regression Neural Network;GRNN)、支持向量迴歸(Support Vector Regression;SVR)與果蠅最佳化演算法(Fruit Fly Optimization Algorithm;FOA)等進行分析,其主要貢獻基於生物學的演算法,使用果蠅最佳化演算法結合GRNN和SVR進行模型內「參數調整」。在FOAGRNN (FOA+GRNN)模型中,加入FOA,其最終目的在於尋找最佳平滑參數(Spread);另一FOASVR (FOA+SVR)模型係針對SVR中的兩個重要參數,使用FOA方法進行累代動態微調 。文中個人主要加強其理論與資料研究,使其能更精細地進行各種模型分析。同時探討GRNN於隨機搜尋績效,以Spread 與 RMSE(Root-Mean-Square Error)關係曲線圖呈現,發現Spread和預測的 RMSE呈現正相關。
第二篇題目為「運用智能技術分析資本市場投資策略」,係以美國兩支道瓊成分股為例。本篇論文提出了一種「強化式學習」來研究股票市場,使用資料採礦技術構建投資策略,並調整不同參數進行準確率比較分析。研究中我們編寫自動化R程式,建構多個技術指標,利用淺層機器學習方法以隨機森林演算法(RF)進行篩選重要特徵,另使用支持向量機(SVM)分類方法建構投資策略。相關程式包含各項參數與策略的調整等,研究中發現前人在資料程式設定上有些錯誤。實證過程中係針對六個項目進行分析,包含不同股票、買賣策略、精確度計算、財務指標、交易成本、觀察天數等。經實證研究顯示經由「調整模型參數」確實可以提升「預測精準度」。
以上已發表之兩篇論文均運用相關「智能技術」進行「企業授信與資本市場」領域之研究與應用,其目的在展現智能技術領域之多元性。有了「企業授信」及「資本市場」研究,尚欠缺「消金授信」領域之研究,因此本篇論文即在補足這最後一片拼圖。實證中以S銀行為例進行「消金授信」領域之研究,分析過程中運用R軟體進行撰寫程式,同時使用羅吉斯回歸、線性回歸、多元羅吉斯、決策樹、支持向量機(SVM)與類神經網路(ANN)等演算法分析。在「資產分級與違約預警」上採用準確率、衡量指標等進行模型比較、檢定分析與績效評估,期許對於風險評估技術暨演算法之提升與模型精進給予些許貢獻。研究宗旨係以補充羅吉斯回歸分析技術為目標,並提升風險管理技術思維為理念,期許對現行授信政策、營運策略、風險管理與監控提供適切的建議與修正。
本研究採用自動化程式設計,實證研究分析已建置之模型與流程基礎下,未來可提供S銀行在結合資料庫與各種演算法運用上有所助益,無需依賴遠端主機,亦可直接於終端電腦上進行邊緣運算。研究之理念與目標係往AI智慧化、機器人自動化與物聯網 (Internet of Things;IoT)等方向邁進,這也是今日工業4.0的主流。研究最終透過 「六種演算法」、「十個模型」與「六組隨機取樣」,經實證回測六組分析樣本後結果發現:(1)「平均準確率」以支持向量機(C=40)達七成五為最高,而以主成分分析的三成三為最低。(2)「最大準確率」以支持向量機(C=10)達八成九為最高,而主成分分析的四成九為最低。(3)「衡量指標」以支持向量機(C=2)表現較佳。(4)ROC/AUC值不論是樣本數組合或是ANN模型組合均以採用「Low」vs「Mid+High」之合併組合所呈現AUC值較佳。(5)模型檢定結果顯示支持向量機(C=40)與多元羅吉斯有「顯著」差異,另與線性模型(LM)、類神經網路、線性區別分析(LDA)、決策樹(DT)、主成分分析(PCA)間均具有「非常顯著」差異,SVM相較其他模型其績效數據中亦呈現出較佳準確率。
In the past, banks mostly used expert experience and judgment in risk management.
Logit regression analysis is currently a commonly used rating technique. In the past ten years, algorithms in the field of data mining have been gradually applied to the fields of "risk management,customer grouping,recommendation marketing,stock forecasting, and correlation analysis". Coupled with the widespread use of free programs such as R and Python. For the past scholars to use only paid software packages such as SAS, SPSS, Eviews and Matlab, it is really an impact and challenge. In addition, in recent years, the speed of computer operations has continued to increase, and the accumulation of data and data has also multiplied. Big data analysis technology and applications have become more common, and artificial intelligence technology has entered multiple development fields and stages. In the research and writing process of this paper, if people can embrace big data while also adding new thinking about data mining and analysis. It is hoped that new development and new achievements can be stimulated in the field of banking business promotion and risk management or academic research!
I have co-published two journal papers during the study period under the supervision of Professor Lin, W. Y. over the past few years. The title of the first paper is "Using artificial intelligence technology for corporate financial diagnostics". The system uses "corporate financial indicators" to make "bankruptcy predictions". The software includes Eviews, SPSS, Matlab, etc. In addition to using the traditional Logistic Regression model for statistical analysis, the demonstration process also uses Back-Propagation Neural Network, Generalized Regression Neural Network, Support Vector Regression, and Fruit Fly Optimization Algorithm for analysis. Its main contribution is based on biological algorithms, using fruit fly optimization algorithms combined with GRNN and SVR to carry out "parameter adjustment" within the model. Add FOA to the FOAGRNN (Fruit Fly Optimization Algorithm+Generalized Regression Neural Network) model, the ultimate goal is to find the best smoothing parameter (Spread); Another FOASVR model uses the FOA method for dynamic fine-tuning of the two parameters in the support vector regression. In the article, the individual mainly strengthens his theoretical and data research, so that he can conduct various model analysis more precisely. At the same time, it discusses GRNN's random search performance, which is presented as a graph of the relationship between Spread and Root-Mean-Square Error. It is found that Spread and the predicted RMSE are positively correlated.
The second topic is "The application of artificial intelligence investment in capital markets: A case study of two constituent stocks of Dow Jones". This paper proposes a kind of reinforcement learning to study the stock market, uses data mining technology to construct investment strategies, and uses different parameters to compare and analyze the accuracy. In the research, an automated R program was written to construct multiple technical indicators, using shallow learning methods to select important features using random forest algorithms, and using support vector machine classification methods to construct investment strategies. The related programs include adjustments of various parameters and strategies, etc. During the study, it was found that the predecessors had some errors in the data program settings. The empirical process is based on analysis of six items, including different stocks, trading strategies, accuracy calculations, number of financial indicators, transaction costs, and observation days. Empirical research shows that the "prediction accuracy" can be improved by "adjusting model parameters".
The above two published papers both use related "intelligent technology" to conduct
research and application in the field of "corporate financet and capital market", with
the purpose of showing the diversification of the intelligent technology field. With
"corporate finance" and "capital market" research, there is still a lack of research in
the field of "consumer finance". So this paper is to make up this last piece of the
puzzle. In the empirical study, S Bank is used as an example to conduct research in
the field of "consumer finance". Use R software to write programs in the analysis
process, simultaneously use logit regression, linear regression, multinomial logit,
decision tree, support vector machine and neural network and other algorithms for
analysis. In the "asset classification and default warning", accuracy and measurement
indicators are used for model comparison, verification analysis and performance eval-
uation. We hope to make some contributions to the improvement of risk assessment
technology and algorithm and model refinement. The purpose of the research is to
supplement logit regression analysis technology as the goal, and to enhance the risk
management technology thinking as the concept, It is expected to provide appropriate
suggestions and amendments to the current credit policy,operating strategy, risk mana-
gement and monitoring.
This research uses automated programming, based on the empirical research and
analysis of the established models and processes, Bank S will be able to provide help
in the use of combining databases and various algorithms in the future. There is no
need to rely on a remote host, and edge computing can be performed directly on the
terminal computer. The concept and goal of the research is to move towards AI intel-
igence, robotic automation and IoT (Internet of Things), which is also the mainstream
of today's Industry 4.0. The research finally uses "six algorithms", "ten models" and
"six random sampling". After empirical back-testing six groups of analysis samples,
the results found: (1)"Average accuracy rate" is the highest with "Support Vector
Machine (C=40)" reaching 75%, and "Principal Component Analysis" with 33% as
the lowest. (2)The "Maximum Accuracy" is the highest with "Support Vector Machine
(C=10)" reaching 80%, and the "Principal Component Analysis" with 49% being the
lowest. (3)The "measurement index" performed better with "support vector machine
(C=2)". (4)Whether the ROC/AUC value is "sample number combination (150 or 100
)'' or "ANN model combination (model 9: hidden1 layer or model 10: hidden2 layer)'',
both use "Low'' vs "Mid" the combined combination of "High" shows better AUC
value. (5)The model verification results show that there is a "significant" difference
between the support vector machine (C=40) and the multinomial logit (Mlogit). In
addition, there are "very significant" differences between linear models (LM),
artificial neural network (ANN), linear discriminant analysis (LDA), decision tree
(DT), and principal component analysis (PCA). Compared with other models, SVM
also show better accuracy in performance data.
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