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題名：人工智慧應用於利潤極大化的產品組合管理
作者：鄭展志
作者(外文)：CHENG, CHAN-CHIH
校院名稱：中華大學
系所名稱：科技管理博士學位學程
指導教授：魏秋建
學位類別：博士
出版日期：2022
主題關鍵詞：人工智慧；數學規劃；演算法；Ansoff 矩陣；產品組合管理；Artificial intelligence；Mathematical programming；Algorithm；Ansoff matrix；Product portfolio
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企業分析外部環境中的機會和威脅，衡量內部的優勢和劣勢，然後制定策略目標以領先於對手。產品組合管理(PPM, product portfolio management)是企業選擇開發、銷售、維護和剃除哪些產品以實現策略目標和極大化利潤的動態過程。大多數產品組合僅涉及新產品，不包括現有產品。產品組合管理是企業在資源限制下，選擇產品組合的動態決策過程，一般被用來決定企業在未來一段時間的產品研發活動。因此傳統上，產品組合管理比較著重在新產品的研發專案，而沒有將舊的現有產品納入考量，也就是很少考慮到產品的整個生命週期。本研究希望提出一個在極大化企業整體利潤之下，同時考量舊產品和新產品的產品組合管理模式，利用人工智慧和數學規劃方法，選擇成功率比較高的產品，進行產品組合的規劃管理，希望可以協助解決以下的管理議題，哪些舊產品應該在哪些現有市場擴大佔有率，或是應該轉移到哪些新的市場，又或者應該退出哪些市場。另外，要不要為某些舊市場開發哪些新產品，還是將哪些新產品推到某些新的市場。本研究首先利用人工智慧的三個演算法，包括NaiveBayes，OneR和REPTree演算法，建立成功率較高的產品預測模型，然後對目前規劃的產品進行成功率預測，接著使用數學規劃模式，求解在極大化整體產品組合利潤，以及在資源和風險限制下，哪些舊產品應該在哪些新和舊市場銷售，以及哪些新產品應該在哪些新和舊市場推出。最後進行資源和風險限制的敏感度分析，以了解資源和風險門檻的變化，對利潤以及產品和市場選擇的影響。研究結果顯示本研究所提的方法，確實可以協助企業做出利潤極大化的產品組合管理決策。
Enterprises analyze opportunities and threats in the external environment, measure internal strengths and weaknesses, and formulate strategic objectives to stay ahead of their opponents. Product portfolio management (PPM) is a dynamic process by which an enterprise chooses which products to develop, sell, maintain, and remove to achieve strategic objectives and maximize profit. Most product portfolios involve new products only and exclude existing products. This study proposes a product/market portfolio model that considers both old/new products and old/new markets to maximize PPM profit, determine which old products should stay in existing markets, which new markets should be considered, or which markets should be abandoned, and develop new products for old markets or introduce new products to some new markets. This study uses machine learning and deep learning algorithms to establish prediction models to screen the planned products and markets with a high success rate. Mathematical programming is used to determine which old products should be sold in which old and new markets and which new products should be launched in which new and old markets to maximize profit. A sensitivity analysis is used to determine the effect of changes in the resource and the risk threshold on profit and product/market selection.
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