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題名:美、中、越的南海戰略互動及其未來:戰略研究途徑的分析
作者:鄭智懷
作者(外文):Chih-Huai Cheng
校院名稱:淡江大學
系所名稱:國際事務與戰略研究所博士班
指導教授:施正權
學位類別:博士
出版日期:2022
主題關鍵詞:南海戰略互動美國中共越南South China SeaStrategic InteractionU.S.ChinaVietnam
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
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本論文以戰略研究途徑分析美國、中共與越南在 2009 年至 2021 年之間,三方
在南海的戰略互動,以及在未來的行動將如何發展。研究目的有五:第一,剖析新
變異的南海戰略環境中,多方區域外國家的介入對於美、中、越三方的南海戰略的
影響;第二,分析美、中、越三方在南海的利益與政策目標,以及對彼此的影響;
第三,評估美、中、越三方政治、經濟與軍事權力,以及對其南海戰略行動的影
響;第四,研究美、中、越三方在南海的戰略行動中,權力的操作與互動的辯證;
第五,推測在上述的戰略互動下,三方的南海戰略未來可能發展方向,以及其建構
何種可能的未來路線。
本論文的研究發現,中共崛起後,其強勢的南海戰略行動使周邊國家選擇與美
國深化正式或非正式聯盟的關係抗衡中共。美國則藉此介入南海問題,導致雙方的
角力持續升高。越南利用兩強的競爭,謀取在南海的利益。在戰略環境、三方的利益
與目標以及主要互動模式的影響下,現行秩序的延續將會是美、中、越未來在南海
最有可能的戰略互動形式。
This dissertation is discussing the development of the U.S., China and Vietnam Strategic Interaction and
future for South China Sea. There are five objectives in this dissertation. First, this dissertation will
examines how the involvement of extraregional great powers affect the U.S., China and Vietnam
Strategic Interaction for South China Sea. Second, this dissertation will analyze how interests and policy
goals impact on strategic action of the U.S., China and Vietnam. Third, this dissertation will evaluate
national power of the U.S., China and Vietnam, and how to affect theirs strategic action for South China
Sea. Forth, this dissertation will analyze strategic action of the U.S., China and Vietnam for South China
Sea disputes. Finally, this dissertation will speculate on the model of the U.S., China and Vietnam
Strategic Interaction in future.
This study argues that the rising China has recently taken assertive strategic action in South China Sea.
The countries around the South China Sea has chose to deepen official or unofficial alliance relations
with The United States. The United States have decided to respond China’s competitions between these
two powers have reached a new height. Vietnam has survived in the gap between the US and China and
used theirs competitions to get national interest. To consider strategic environment, strategic interests
and targets, and interaction, the current order will be the main model of interaction among the U.S.,
China and Vietnam for South China Sea in future.
This dissertation is discussing the development of the U.S., China and Vietnam Strategic Interaction and
future for South China Sea. There are five objectives in this dissertation. First, this dissertation will
examines how the involvement of extraregional great powers affect the U.S., China and Vietnam
Strategic Interaction for South China Sea. Second, this dissertation will analyze how interests and policy
goals impact on strategic action of the U.S., China and Vietnam. Third, this dissertation will evaluate
national power of the U.S., China and Vietnam, and how to affect theirs strategic action for South China
Sea. Forth, this dissertation will analyze strategic action of the U.S., China and Vietnam for South China
Sea disputes. Finally, this dissertation will speculate on the model of the U.S., China and Vietnam
Strategic Interaction in future.
This study argues that the rising China has recently taken assertive strategic action in South China Sea.
The countries around the South China Sea has chose to deepen official or unofficial alliance relations
with The United States. The United States have decided to respond China’s competitions between these
two powers have reached a new height. Vietnam has survived in the gap between the US and China and
used theirs competitions to get national interest. To consider strategic environment, strategic interests
and targets, and interaction, the current order will be the main model of interaction among the U.S.,
China and Vietnam for South China Sea in future.
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