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題名:總體經濟與壽險業發展之動態關係-台灣實證研究
作者:王聖元
作者(外文):SHENG-YUAN WANG
校院名稱:淡江大學
系所名稱:財務金融學系博士班
指導教授:林允永
李命志
學位類別:博士
出版日期:2023
主題關鍵詞:保費收入GDP時間序列動態關係向量自我迴歸共整合因果關係衝擊反應函數變異數分解insurance premiumGDPtime seriesdynamic relationshipvector autoregressivecointegrationcausalityimpulse response functionvariance decomposition
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本研究旨在探討台灣總體經濟與壽險業發展之間的動態關係。使用名目國內生產毛額(NGDP)和壽險業新契約總保費收入(TLNBP)作為代理變數,利用2004年至2021年的18年季度資料進行研究。透過建立向量自我迴歸模型(VAR)以及共整合檢定、因果關係檢定、衝擊反應函數和變異數分解等方法進行實證分析,揭示了時間序列數據的特徵。研究結果顯示,NGDP和TLNBP之間並不存在長期均衡關係,因此無法相互預測。然而,壽險業新契約總保費收入的變動(ΔTLNBP)對國內生產毛額的變動(ΔNGDP)具有單向因果關係。此外,國內生產毛額的變動(ΔNGDP)在受到壽險業新契約總保費收入的變動(ΔTLNBP)衝擊後會呈現8期的負向反應,而且該反應具有長期波動和年週期性循環的特徵。
依據研究結果,本文最後提出可利用政策鼓勵壽險業進行創新轉型和自我體質優化的政策建議,以降低壽險業發展對總體經濟發展的負向影響,同時強化壽險業公司體質、經營韌性並促進產業的內生性進化,讓總體經濟和壽險業兩者於各自發展之時,也能獲得適當平衡。
這項研究揭示了台灣壽險業發展與總體經濟發展之間的動態關係和數據特徵,為台灣壽險業的研究提供了重要的參考依據。這些發現有助於了解台灣壽險業的發展變化及趨勢動態,不僅補充了現有研究文獻的空缺,同時也提出實務上的政策建議,為相關政策的制訂提供參考價值。
The aim of this study is to explore the dynamic relationship between the macroeconomy and the development of the life insurance industry in Taiwan. Using Nominal Gross Domestic Product (NGDP) and Total Life Insurance New Business Premium (TLNBP) as proxy variables, an analysis is conducted using quarterly data spanning from 2004 to 2021, totaling 18 years. The study employs a Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model and employs methods such as cointegration testing, causality analysis, impulse response functions, and variance decomposition to empirically analyze the time series data and uncover their characteristics. The results reveal that there is no long-term equilibrium relationship between NGDP and TLNBP, indicating a lack of mutual predictability. However, there exists a one-way causality where changes in TLNBP impact changes in NGDP. Additionally, after experiencing shocks, NGDP exhibits a negative response for a duration of eight periods, demonstrating long-term volatility and an annual cyclical pattern.
Based on the research findings, this paper proposes policy recommendations that utilize incentives to encourage the life insurance industry to undergo innovative transformation and enhance its overall organizational resilience. These policies aim to mitigate the negative impact of life insurance industry development on macroeconomic growth while strengthening the operational resilience of the life insurance sector and promoting endogenous evolution of the industry. This approach seeks to achieve a proper balance between the development of the macroeconomy and the life insurance industry.
These findings reveal the dynamic relationship and data characteristics between the development of the life insurance industry and the Macroeconomy in Taiwan, providing valuable insights for the study of Taiwan's life insurance industry. The results contribute to a better understanding of the development trends in Taiwan's life insurance industry and offer guidance for the formulation of relevant policies.
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