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題名:從交往走向競爭:由新古典現實主義看川普時期美中關係轉變(2017-2021)
作者:桂斌
作者(外文):Pin Kuei
校院名稱:淡江大學
系所名稱:國際事務與戰略研究所博士班
指導教授:李大中
學位類別:博士
出版日期:2023
主題關鍵詞:新古典現實主義層次分析外交政策美中關係川普政府貿易戰Neoclassical RealismLevel of AnalysisForeign PolicyU.S.-Sino RelationsTrump AdministrationTrade War
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美中關係自川普上台後快速惡化。在「讓美國再次偉大」的訴求下,川普政府將中國視為戰略競爭者,抨擊中國試圖破壞美國的民主制度。川普執政團隊中點名美中貿易爭端、中國在南海的軍事化行為、對臺灣的打壓、對中國國內民眾的監控和壓制以及在美國和海外施加影響力等議題是美中爭執的核心。同時,在美國內部,對中國的觀感也快速改變。在美國國會中,「抗中」是美國極端分裂的兩黨少有的共識,美國的民意也對中國觀感大幅惡化,2020年爆發的新冠疫情更使兩國關係更形惡化。
本研究試圖從新古典現實主義理論的角度檢視川普時期美國對中政策的變化。新古典現實主義是後冷戰時期發展的對外政策理論建構路徑新分析方法,關注國家的內部因素對外交政策的影響,可用於解釋與預測國家的短期行為、大戰略調整與國際體系結構之演變,並特別關注國家在不同時期為何採行不同外交政策。新古典現實主義理論認為外交政策涉及「國際體系」和「國家」兩個層次的內部與彼此間各種要素複雜互動的結果。儘管國家的「權力」與「國際體系地位」對國家政策選擇具有決定性影響,惟「國內因素」同樣能影響國家的外交政策。針對川普此位非典型的美國總統,新古典現實主義可說是最適合分析其外交政策的理論,本研究以決策者意象、外交戰略文化與國家社會共識分析美國國內因素如何影響美國外交政策。
本研究認為中國不再滿意現有的體系結構與美國對中國的挑戰無法視而不見是中美衝突的體系因素,但川普反對現有模式、本國利益優先、追求使他國重新尊重美國的外交政策觀點加速推動美國外交政策改弦更張,使美國在短時間內推翻奉行幾十年的對中接觸政策轉向對抗。川普政府推動之貿易戰、科技戰與建構印太戰略作為新的區域戰略架構,為後續拜登政府延續迄今,顯示川普政府的對中政策架構與內涵的確已成為美國對中政策的新基礎。
U.S.-Sino relations have been deteriorating rapidly since Donald J. Trump became the President of the United States. Under "Make America Great Again", the Trump administration has defined China as a strategic competitor and criticized China's attempts to undermine U.S. democracy and pointed to the U.S.-China trade dispute, China's militarization of the South China Sea, its suppression of Taiwan, its surveillance and suppression of the Chinese domestic population, and its exertion of influence both in the U.S. and abroad as the core of the U.S.-China dispute. Meanwhile, within the United States, perceptions of China are changing rapidly. In the U.S. Congress, "anti-China" is a rare consensus between the two extremely divided parties. Public opinion in the U.S. has also deteriorated dramatically toward China, and the 2020 outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic has further aggravated.
This study attempts to examine the changes in U.S. foreign policy toward China during the Trump era with neoclassical realism theory, which is a new analytical approach to foreign policy developed in the post-Cold War period, focus on the influence of the State's internal factors on foreign policy.The theory can be used to explain and predict short-term state behavior, strategic adjustments and changes in the structure of the international system, with a particular focus on why states adopt different foreign policies at different times. neoclassical realism theory believes that foreign policy involves two levels: International System and State and the complex interaction of various elements within and between the two levels determines foreign policy. Although state's "power" and "status in the international system" have a decisive impact on a country's policy choices, but "domestic factors" can also influence state's foreign policy. It is the most appropriate theory to analyze the foreign policy for President Trump, an atypical United State president. This study analyzes how U.S. domestic factors affect the foreign policy based on the image of policymakers, diplomatic strategic culture, and national social consensus.
This study argues that China is no longer satisfied with the existing system structure and that the United States cannot turn a blind eye to China's challenges as the systemic factors of US-Sino conflict. President Trump opposes the existing foreign policy, emphasizes the priority of US interests, and seeks to make other countries respect the United States again. These personal diplomatic views accelerate the change of US foreign policy. The trade war and technology race between the U.S. and China, and construction of the Indo-Pacific strategy promoted by the Trump administration are the new regional strategic framework, which has continued until now for the subsequent Biden administration, showing that the Trump administration’s China policy structure and connotation have indeed become a new aspect of the US foreign policy towards China.
壹、中文文獻
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貳、外文文獻
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二、專書篇章
Buzan, Barry, 1993, “Beyond Neoclassical: Interaction Capacity”, Buzan, Barry, Jones, Charles, Little, Richard, The Logic of Anarchy: Neorealism to Structural Realism ed., NY: Columbia University, pp.
三、期刊論文
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The White House, 2018/05/19, “Joint Statement of the United States and China Regarding Trade Consultations”, The White House,
The White House, 2018/11/16. “Remarks by Vice President Pence at the 2018 APEC CEO Summit | Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea,” The White House,
The White House, 2018/12/04. “Remarks by Vice President Pence on the Administration’s Policy Toward China.”, The White House,
The White House,2020/05/29. ” Remarks by President Trump on Actions Against China”, The White House, ,< https://trumpwhitehouse.archives.gov/briefings-statements/remarks-president-trump-actions-china/ >
The White House, “Michael R. Pence: 48th Vice President of the United States”, The White House,
Tiezzi, Shannon, 2018/06/29. “Mattis’ Visit to China: Agree to Disagree?”, The Diplomat, < https://thediplomat.com/2018/06/mattis-visit-to-china-agree-to-disagree/>
Thibaut, Kenton, 2022/04/20. “China’s discourse power operations in the Global South “, Atlantic Council,
Tillerson, Rex W., 2017/05/05, “Progress on ‘America First’ Foreign Policy”, U.S. Department of State, < https://2017-2021.state.gov/progress-on-america-first-foreign-policy/index.html >
Tillerson, Rex W., 2017/10/18, “Defining Our Relationship with India for the Next Century: An Address by U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson”, CSIS,
Tillerson, Rex W.,2017/12/15, ” Statement by Secretary Tillerson on “Meeting the Foreign Policy Challenges of 2017 and Beyond”, U.S. Embassy & Consulates in Indonesia,
Tillerson, Rex, 2018/01/10. “Defining Our Relationship with India for the Next Century: An Address by U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson,” Center for Security and International Studies,
Trump, Donald J.(@realDonaldTrump), 2016/12/13. “Interesting how the U.S. sells Taiwan billions of dollars of military equipment but I should not accept a congratulatory call.”, Twitter,
Trump, Donald J. (@realDonaldTrump), 2018/05/13, “President Xi of China, and I, are working together to give massive Chinese phone company, ZTE, a way to get back into business, fast. Too many jobs in China lost. Commerce Department has been instructed to get it done!”, Twitter,
Trump, Donald J. (@realDonaldTrump),2019/05/06. ” For 10 months, China has been paying Tariffs to the USA of 25% on 50 Billion Dollars of High Tech, and 10% on 200 Billion Dollars of other goods. These payments are partially responsible for our great economic results. The 10% will go up to 25% on Friday. 325 Billions Dollars....”, Twitter,
Trump, Donald J. (@realDonaldTrump), 2019/08/05. “China dropped the price of their currency to an almost a historic low. It’s called “currency manipulation.” Are you listening Federal Reserve? This is a major violation which will greatly weaken China over time!”, Twitter,
Trump, Donald J., 2017/01/20. “The Inaugural Address”, The White House,
Trump, Donald J., 2017/09/19. “Remarks by President Trump to the 72nd Session of the United Nations General Assembly”, The White House,
Trump, Donald J., 2017/11/10. “Remarks by President Trump at APEC CEO Summit| Da Nang, Vietnam” The White House,
Trump, Donald J., 2018/08/23. “Remarks by President Trump at a Roundtable on the Foreign Investment Risk Review Modernization Act (FIRRMA)”, The White House,
Trump, Donald J., 2018/12/31. “Statement on Signing the Asia Reassurance Initiative Act of 2018”, American Presidency Project,
Trump, Donald J., 2020/06/17. “Statement on Signing the Uyghur Human Rights Policy Act of 2020”, The American Presidency Project,
Trump, Donald J., 2020/07/14. “Statement on Signing the Hong Kong Autonomy Act”, < https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/statement-signing-the-hong-kong-autonomy-act >
Trump, Donald J., 2020/09/22. “Remarks by President Trump to the 75th Session of the United Nations General Assembly”, The White House,
Turner, Camilla, 2023/01/28. “Blame Joe Biden for UK not meeting trade-deals pledge, says Government”, The Telegraph,
United State Senate Committee on Armed Service, 2019/06/24. “Dr. Mark T. Esper Acting Secretary of Defense June 24, 2019 – Present”, United State Senate Committee on Armed Service,
United States Trade Representative, 2020/01/15. “Economic And Trade Agreement Between The United States of America And The People’s Republic of China January 15, 2020 Fact Sheet” United States Trade Representative,
U.S.-China Group, 2019/03/29. “Larsen, Lahood Return From U.S.-China Working Group Trip To China”, < https://uschinaworkinggroup-larsen.house.gov/media-center/press-releases/larsen-lahood-return-from-us-china-working-group-trip-to-china>
U.S. Congress, Executive Session Permanent Select Committee On Intelligence, 2017/09/08. “Interview of: Susan Rice”, U.S. House of Representatives,
U.S. Customs and Border Protection, 2019/12/31. “Fact Sheet: Japan Trade Agreement”, U.S. Customs and Border Protection,
U.S. Department of Commerce, 2017/03/07. “Secretary of Commerce Wilbur L. Ross, Jr. Announces $1.19 Billion Penalty for Chinese Companyʼs Export Violations to Iran and North Korea”, U.S. Department of Commerce,
U.S. Department of Commerce, 2020/05/22. “Commerce Department to Add Nine Chinese Entities Related to Human Rights Abuses in the Xinjiang Uighur Autonomous Region to the Entity List”, U.S. Department of Commerce,
U.S. Department of Commerce, “About Commerce” U.S. Department of Commerce, < https://www.commerce.gov/about >
U.S. Department of Defense, 2012/01. “Sustaining U.S. Global Leadership: Priorities for 21st Century Defense”, Global Security,
U.S. Department of Defense,2017/06/03. “Remarks by Secretary Mattis at Shangri-La Dialogue”, U.S. Department of Defense,
U.S. Department of Defense, 2018/01/22. “Summary of the 2018 National Defense Strategy of the United State of America--Sharpening the American Military’s Competitive Edge”, U.S. Department of Defense,
U.S. Department of Defense, 2019/06/01. “Indo-Pacific Strategy Report”, U.S. Department of Defense, < https://media.defense.gov/2019/Jul/01/2002152311/-1/-1/1/DEPARTMENT-OF-DEFENSE-INDO-PACIFIC-STRATEGY-REPORT-2019.PDF >
U.S. Department of Defense, 2020/08/05. “Secretary of Defense Speaks at Aspen Security Forum”, U.S. Department of Defens,
U.S. Department of State, 2000/05/24. “China: WTO Accession and Permanent Normal Trade Relations (PNTR)”, U.S. Department of State,
U.S. Department of State, 2017/06/22. “Tillerson, Mattis Discuss U.S.-China Diplomatic and Security Dialogue”, ChinaUsFocus,
U.S. Department of State, 2019/11/03. “A Free and Open Indo-Pacific: Advancing a Shared Vision”, U.S. Department of State,
U.S. Department of State, “The Abraham Accords”, U.S. Department of State,
U.S. Department of Treasure, 2017/05/11, “Initial Actions of the U.S.-China Economic Cooperation 100-Day Plan”, U.S. Department of Treasure,
U.S. Department of Treasury, 2019/08/05. “Treasury Designates China as a Currency Manipulator”, U.S. Department of Treasury,
U.S. Department of Treasury, “Treasury Designates China as a Currency Manipulator”, U.S. Department of Treasury, August 5, 2019,
U.S. Department of Treasury, “Summary of the Foreign Investment Risk Review Modernization Act of 2018”, U.S. Department of Treasury,
U.S. Government Publishing Office, 2017/02/28. “Checking China’s Maritime Push”, Serial No. 115–6,
U.S. Government Publishing Office, 2017/04/26.” China’s Technological Rise: Challenges to U.S. Innovation And Security”, Serial No. 115–22,
U.S. Government Publishing Office,2017/06/15.” Renewing Assurances: Strengthening U.S.-Taiwan Ties”, Serial No. 115–43,
U.S. Government Publishing Office, 2017/11/15.” Development Finance in Asia: U.S. Economic Strategy Amid China’s Belt And Road”, Serial No. 115–101,
U.S. Government Publishing Office, 2017/03/29, 2017/05/24, 2017/07/12, 2017/11/14, 2018/05/15. “American Leadership in The Asia Pacific”, S. Hrg. 115-710, < https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/CHRG-115shrg36854/html/CHRG-115shrg36854.htm>
U.S. Government Publishing Office, 2018/07/11. “China’s Predatory Trade And Investment Strategy”, Serial No. 115–149,
U.S. Government Publishing Office, 2019/04/09, 2019/05/23, 2019/10/16. “ARIA (Asia Reassurance Initiative Act) In Action”, S. HRG. 116–212,
U.S. Government Publishing Office, 2020/07/22. “Advancing Effective U.S. Competition With China: Objectives, Priorities, And Next Steps”, S. HRG. 116–300,
U.S. Pacific Command, 2018/05/30. “U.S. Indo-Pacific Command Holds Change of Command Ceremony”, USINDOPACOM,
Von der Leyen, Ursula Gertrud, 2020/09/16. “State of the Union Address 2020”, European Union, S< https://state-of-the-union.ec.europa.eu/system/files/2022-08/soteu_2020_en.pdf >
Washington, AP, 2016/08/27. “Clinton sees Trump ties to ‘alt-right’ dystopian ideology”, Hindustan Times,
Wei, Lingling, Davis, Bob, 2018/05/22, “U.S., China Agree on Outline to Settle ZTE Controversy”, The Wall Street Journal,
WIPO, Inside WIPO, WIPO official website,
Wroughton, Lesley, Zengerle, Patricia, 2018/09/21. “U.S. sanctions China for buying Russian fighter jets, missiles”, Reuters,
Younis, Mohamed, 2021/03/01. “China, Russia Images in U.S. Hit Historic Lows”, Gallup, < https://news.gallup.com/poll/331082/china-russia-images-hit-historic-lows.aspx >
Yuhas, Alan, 2019/08/06. “China Warns U.S. Against Sending Missiles to Asia Amid Fears of an Arms Race”, The New York Times,
Zeballos-Roig, Joseph, 2019/09/19. “Meet Robert C. O'Brien, Trump's new national security adviser and a former hostage negotiator who monitored A$AP Rocky's trial in Sweden”, Insider,
Zenko, Micah, 2020/03/25. “The Coronavirus Is the Worst Intelligence Failure in U.S. History,” Foreign Policy,
Zumbrun, Josh, Davis, Bob, 2020/10/26. “China Trade War Didn’t Boost U.S. Manufacturing Might”, The Wall Street Journal,
Zymeri, Jeff, 2023/05/16. “John Bolton: Foreign Leaders Think Trump Is a ‘Laughing Fool’”, National Review,
五、美國法律
Constitutional Convention, 1787/09/17.”Constitution of the United States”,
U.S. Congress, 1998/10/27.“International Religious Freedom Act of 1998”, PUBLIC LAW 105–292,
U.S. Congress, 2018/03/16.“Taiwan Travel Act”, PUBLIC LAW 115–135,
U.S. Congress, 2018/07/18.“Better Utilization of Investment Leading to Development Act”, H. Rept. 115-814,
U.S. Congress, 2018/08/23.“National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2019”, BILLS-115H.R.5515,
U.S. Congress, 2018/12/19.“Reciprocal Access to Tibet Act of 2018” , PUBLIC LAW 115–330,
U.S. Congress, 2018/12/31.“Asia Reassurance Initiative Act of 2018”, PUBLIC LAW 115–409,
U.S. Congress, 2019.11.27.“Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act of 2019”, PUBLIC LAW 116–76,
U.S. Congress, 2019/11/27.“Placing Restrictions on Teargas Exports and Crowd-control Technology to Hong Kong Act”, PUBLIC LAW 116–77,
U.S. Congress, 2020/03/12.“Secure And Trusted Communications Networks Act of 2019”, PUBLIC LAW 116–124,
U.S. Congress, 2020/03/23.“Secure 5G and Beyond Act of 2020”, PUBLIC LAW 116–129,
U.S. Congress, 2020/03/26.“Taiwan Allies International Protection And Enhancement Initiative (Taipei) Act Of 2019”, PUBLIC LAW 116–135,
U.S. Congress, 2020/06/17.“Uyghur Human Rights Policy Act of 2020”, PUBLIC LAW 116–145, < https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/PLAW-116publ149/pdf/PLAW-116publ149.pdf>
U.S. Congress, 2020/07/14.“Hong Kong Autonomy Act”, PUBLIC LAW 116–149,
U.S. Congress, 2020/12/18.“Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act”, PUBLIC LAW 116–145,
U.S. Congress, 2020/12/27.“Taiwan Assurance Act of 2020”, “Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2021”, PUBLIC LAW 116–145,
U.S. Congress, 2020/12/27. “Tibetan Policy and Support Act of 2020” “Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2021”, PUBLIC LAW 116–145,
 
 
 
 
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