American Voter Responses to International Political Events and Economic Conditions: 1920-1996_

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題名：	American Voter Responses to International Political Events and Economic Conditions: 1920-1996
書刊名：	歐美研究
作者：	蔡佳泓
作者(外文)：	Tsai, Chia-hung
出版日期：	2000
卷期：	30:3
頁次：	頁143-191
主題關鍵詞：	總統選舉；經濟投票；國際政治事件；戰爭；Presidential election；Economic voting；International political events；War
原始連結：	連回原系統網址
相關次數：	被引用次數:期刊(5) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0) 排除自我引用:4 共同引用:0 點閱:38

過去美國總統選舉的研究指出一般的選民關心經濟情況的好壞，因此經濟指標可以用來解釋總統選舉的結果，然而美國總統作為全國的領袖不僅承擔內政的施政責任，還在外交政策上有較國會更大的發揮空間與權力。因此本文將戰爭以及國際政治事件作為自變數，與經濟指標共同預測現任總統所屬政黨的得票率，研究發現這三個指標所構成的模型可以解釋百分之七十以上的變異量。本文證實在經濟情況良好、沒有戰爭而且在選舉年有國際政治事件發生的情況下，現任總統或其繼任者將獲得較高的得票率。

以文找文

Conventional wisdom states that peace and prosperity are the principal policy goals for every government. Past studies have been successful in explaining the variances in presidential election results by using real change in economic conditions as the explanatory variable. The main purpose of this article, therefore, is to add two new variables, international events and wars, to the research on economic voting. It will be shown that international political events, war, and economic conditions explain well the variations in electoral outcomes from 1920 to 1996, and that they yield good predictions of electoral results. It is concluded that American voters in aggregate favor a government that provides peace as well as prosperity.

以文找文

期刊論文
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17.	Stone, Joe A.、Haynes, Stephen E.(1989)。An Integrated Test for Electoral Cycles in the U.S. Economy。The Review of Economics and Statistics，71，426-434。
18.	Rivers, Douglas、Kiewiet, D. Roderick(1984)。A Retrospective on Retrospective Voting。Political Behavior，6，369-393。
19.	Richardson, Bradley M.(1986)。Japan's Habitual Voters: Partisanship on the Emotional Periphery。Comparative Political Studies，19，356-384。
20.	Abramowitz, Alan I.(1988)。An Improved Model for Predicting Presidential Election Outcomes。Political Science and Politics，21，843-847。
21.	Abromowitz, Alan I.、Lanoue, David J.、Ramesh, Subha(1988)。Economic Conditions, Causal Attributions, and Political Evaluations in the 1984 Presidential Election。The Journal of Politics，50(Nov.)，848-863。
22.	Abramowitz, Alan I.(1996)。Bill and Al's Excellent Adventure: Forecasting the 1996 Presidential Election。American Politics Quarterly，24，434-442。
23.	Bloom, Howard S.、Price, H. Douglas(1975)。Voter Response to Short-Run Economic Conditions: The Asymmetric Effect of Prosperity and Recession。American Political Science Review，69(Dec.)，1240-1254。
24.	Brace, Paul、Hinckley, Barbara(1991)。The Structure of Presidential Approval: Constraints within and across Presidencies。The Journal of Politics，53(Nov.)，993-1017。
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26.	Goodman, Saul、Kramer, Gerald H.(1975)。Comment on Arcelus and Meltzer, The Effect of Aggregate Economic Conditions on Congressional Elections。American Political Science Review，69(4)，1255-1265。
27.	Greene, Jay(1993)。Forewarned Before Forecast: Presidential Election Forecasting Models and the 1992 Election。PS: Political Science and Politics，26(Mar.)，17-21。
28.	Grier, Kevin B.(1989)。On the Existence of a Political Monetary Cycle。American Journal of Political Science，33(Aug.)，376-389。
29.	Hibbing, John R.、Alford, John R.(1981)。The Electoral Impact of Economic Conditions: Who is Held Responsible?。American Journal of Political Science，25(Aug.)，423-439。
30.	Hibbs, Douglas A., Jr.(1979)。The Mass Public and Macroeconomic Performance: The Dynamics of Public Opinion Toward Unemployment and Inflation。American Journal of Political Science，23(Nov.)，705-731。
31.	Kenski, Henry C.(1977)。The Impact of Economic Conditions on Presidential Popularity。The Journal of Politics，39(Aug.)，764-773。
32.	Kiewiet, D. Roderick(1981)。Policy-Oriented Voting in Response to Economic Issues。American Political Science Review，75(June)，448-459。
33.	Kinder, Donald R.(1981)。Presidents, Prosperity, and Public Opinion。Public Opinion Quarterly，45，1-21。
34.	Lewis-Beck, Michael S.、Rice, Tom W.(1982)。Presidential Popularity and Presidential Vote。Public Opinion Quarterly，46，534-537。
35.	MacKuen, Michael B.(1983)。Political Drama, Economic Conditions, and the Dynamics of Presidential Popularity。American Journal of Political Science，27(May)，165-192。
36.	Rasler, Karen(1986)。War Accommodation, and Violence in the United States, 1890-1970。American Political Science Review，80(Sep.)，921-945。
37.	Reiter, Dan(1994)。Learning, Realism, and Alliances: The Weight of the Shadow of the Past。World Politics，46(July)，490-526。
38.	Stimson, James A.(1974)。Public Support for American Presidents: A Cyclical Model。Public Opinion Quarterly，40，1-21。
39.	Suzuki, Motoshi(1992)。Political Business Cycles in the Public Mind。American Political Science Review，86(Dec.)，989-996。
40.	Wildavsky, Aaron(1966)。The Two Presidencies。Trans-Action，4(2)，7-14。
41.	Williams, John T.(1990)。The Political Minipulation of Macroeconomic Policy。American Political Science Review，84(Sep.)，767-795。

研究報告
1.	Cecchetti, S. G.(1995)。Inflation indicators and inflation policy。0。
2.	Tabellini, Guido、Persson, Torsten(1997)。Political Economics and Macroeconomic Policy。0。

圖書
1.	Key, V. O. Jr.(1961)。Public Opinion and American Democracy。New York, NY：Alfred A. Knopf。
2.	Skorownek, Stephen(1998)。The Politics Presidents Make: Leadership from John Adams to Bill Clinton。Cambridge, Mass.：Belknap Press。
3.	Wright, Quincy(1965)。A Study of War。Chicago：Chicago University Press。
4.	Lewis-Beck, Michael S.、Rice, Tom W.(1992)。Forecasting elections。Washington, D.C.：Congressional Quarterly Press。
5.	Rosenstone, Steven J.(1983)。Forecasting presidential elections。New Haven, Conn.：Yale University Press。
6.	Lowi, Theodore J.(1985)。The Personal President: Power Invested, Promise Unfulfilled。Ithaca, New York：Cornell University Press。
7.	Morison, Samuel E.(1983)。A Concise History of the American Republic。A Concise History of the American Republic。New York, NY：Oxford University Press。
8.	Page, Benjamin、Shapiro, Robert(1992)。The Rational Public: Fifty Years of Trends in American's Policy Preferences。Chicago：University of Chicago Press。
9.	Muelller, John E.(1973)。War, Presidents, and Public Opinion。New York, NY：University Press of America。
10.	Neustadt, Richard E.(1990)。Presidential Power and the Modern Presidents: The Politics of Leadership from Roosevelt to Reagan。New York：Free Press。
11.	Kernell, Samuel(1986)。Going Public: New Strategies of Presidential Leadership。Washington, DC：CQ Press。
12.	Fiorina, Morris P.(1981)。Retrospective Voting in American National Elections。Yale University Press。
13.	Tufte, Edward R.(1978)。Political Control of the Economy。Princeton, N. J.：Princeton University Press。
14.	Alt, James E.、Chrystal, K. Alec(1983)。Political Economics。University of California press。
15.	Brody, Richard A.(1991)。Assessing the President: the Media, Elite Opinion, and Public Support。Stanford, CA：Prentice Hall。
16.	Mansfield, Edward D.(1994)。Power, Trade, and War。Princeton, N.J.：Princeton University Press。
17.	Gujarati, Damodar N.(1995)。Basic Econometrics。McGraw-Hill, Inc.。
18.	Kmenta, Jan(1986)。Elements of econometrics。New York：Macmillan。
19.	Downs, Anthony J.(1957)。An Economic Theory of Democracy。New York：Harper and Row。
20.	King, Gary、Keohane, Robert O.、Verba, Sidney(1994)。Designing Social Inquiry: Scientific inference in Qualitative Research。Princeton University Press。
21.	Campbell, Angus、Converse, Philip E.、Miller, Warren E.、Stokes, Donald E.(1960)。The American Voter。The University of Chicago Press。
22.	Edwards, George C.(1983)。The Public Presidency: The Pursuit of Popular Support。The Public Presidency: The Pursuit of Popular Support。New York, NY。
23.	Erikson, Robert S.、Luttbeg, Norman R.(1977)。American Public Opinion: Its Origins, Content and Impact。American Public Opinion: Its Origins, Content and Impact。New York, NY。
24.	Kinder, Donald R.(1994)。Reason and Emotion in American Political Life。Beliefs, Reasoning and Decision-Making: Psycho-Logic in Honor of Bob Abelson。Hillsdale, NJ。
25.	Lacy, Dean、Grant, J. Tobin(1996)。The Impact of the Economy on the 1996 Election: The Invisible Foot。Reelection 1996。New York, NY。
26.	Maisel, Sherman J.(1982)。Macroeconomics: Theories and Policies。Macroeconomics: Theories and Policies。New York, NY。

其他
1.	Fair, Ray C.(1990)。The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for the President: 1988 Update，0。

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