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題名:蒙地卡羅方法評估保本型變額保險之利率風險
書刊名:中國統計學報
作者:張士傑 引用關係田嘉蓉山中康司
作者(外文):Chang, Shih-chiehTien, Chia-jungYamanaka, Yasushi
出版日期:2000
卷期:38:3
頁次:頁281-296
主題關鍵詞:平賭過程指數參與率亞式選擇權最低保證Girsanov定理Asian optionGirsanov theoremIndex participation rateMinimum guaranteed
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
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本研究主要探討連結投資樣的並附有最低保證收益之變額生存保險,分析不同利率假設造成於保險計價時的風險,為反應保險屬於長期性的財務契約,我們引用Nielsen典Sandmann (1995) 的結果,利用隨機過程描述短期剎車的變動,取代傳統固定的評價利率。主要依據Girsanov定理,運用二維的平賭過程求出適用的機率測度及計價模式,本研究所討論變額保險的給付型態可利用亞式選擇權表示,投資比率與給定的指數參與率與標的物相關,由於變額保險的給付依投資標的物的收益決定,利用市場無套利假設進行評價,因無法得出明確的公式解,本文利用給定的指數參與率,同時給定指定的投資標的物,採用蒙地卡羅模擬法求得近似的數值解,依據所得數值結果發現,保險人若沒有考慮規避利率變動的策略,將顯著地增加經營時的清償風險。
This study considers pricing risk for minimum guaranteed equity-linked life insurance policies characterized by the interest-rate term structure. The risk of underestimating the premiums is fully explored under plausible interests rate scenarios. Considering life insurance policies as long term financial contracts, we adopt the work by Nielsen and Sandmann (1995) to determine the fair values of the policies given the explicit stochastic interest rate models. Based on Girsanov theorem, two-dimensional martingale measures are adapted to derive the appropriate probability measures and the pricing formulas. Since no analytic formulas are available, Monte Carlo techniques are adopted to approximate the fair premiums. Our findings indicate that the insurer tends to increase the insolvency exposures if there is no proper strategy to hedge the interest rate risks.
期刊論文
1.Brennan, Michael J.、Schwartz, Eduardo S.(1976)。The Pricing of Equity-linked Life Insurance Policies with an Asset Value Guarantee。Journal of Financial Economics,3(3),195-213。  new window
2.Black, F.、Scholes, M.(1973)。The Pricing of Option and Corporate Liabilities。Journal of Political Economy,81,637-654。  new window
3.Ekern, S.、Persson, S. A.(1996)。Exotic Unit-linked Life Insurance Contracts。The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance Theory,21,35-63。  new window
4.Nielsen, J. A.、Sandmann, K.(1995)。Equity-linked Life insurance: A Model with Stochastic Interest Rates。Insurance: Mathematics and Economics,16,225-253。  new window
5.Nielsen, J. A.、Sandmann, K.(1996)。Uniqueness of the Fair Premium for Equity-linked Life Insurance Contracts。The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance Theory,21,65-102。  new window
6.張士傑、郭怡馨(19991100)。保本型變額壽險計價之評論:理論與應用。風險管理學報,1(2),15-40。new window  延伸查詢new window
7.Aase, K. K.、Persson, S. A.(1994)。Pricing of Unit-linked Life Insurance Policies。Scandivnal Actuarial Journal,1,26-52。  new window
8.Bacinello, A. R.、Ortu, F.(1993)。Pricing Equity-linked Life Insurance with Endogenous Minimum Guarantees。Insurance: Mathematics and Economics,13,245-257。  new window
9.Bacinello, A. R.、Ortu, F.(1993)。Pricing Guaranteed Securities-linked Life Insfurance under Interest Rate Risk。Actuarial Approach for Financial Risks,35-55。  new window
10.Vorst, A. C. F.(1992)。Prices and Hedge Ratios of Average Exchange Rate Options。International Review of Financial Analysis,1,179-193。  new window
11.Nonnenmacher, D. J. F.、Rub, J.(1999)。Arithmetic Averaging Equity-linked Life Insurance Policies in Germany。Insurance: Mathematics and Economics,25,23-35。  new window
圖書
1.Oksendal, B.(1995)。Stochastic Differential Equations。Springer。  new window
圖書論文
1.Bacinello, A. R.、Ortu, F.(1994)。Single and Periodic Premiums for Guaranteed Equity-linked Life Insurance under Interest Rate Risk: the ’Lognormal+Vasicek’ Case。Financial Modeling。Heidelberg:Physica-Verlag。  new window
 
 
 
 
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