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題名:我國公益彩券獎金結構之分析
書刊名:管理與系統
作者:劉代洋楊志唯
作者(外文):Liu, Day-yangYang, Chih-wei
出版日期:2001
卷期:8:3
頁次:頁335-348
主題關鍵詞:公益彩券刮刮樂獎金結構中獎機率彩券銷售量LotteryPrize structureThe expected valueThe probability of winning a prizeThe inequality of the prize distribution
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
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  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(3) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:1
  • 共同引用共同引用:7
  • 點閱點閱:31
     公益彩券發行至今已有六期的時間,但至第四期起,公益彩券的銷售已不如前三期的熱賣情況,甚至有發生彩券滯銷的情形。推究其原因,主要是因為公益彩券第四期後大幅修改獎金結構,將原來中獎機率40%的公益彩券降至20%,進而造成民眾購買意願的下降。所以獎金結構的設計良窳成為最直接影響彩券銷售的因素。因此,本研究針對公益彩券獎金結構部分,研究內容包含『獎金結構之一般性分析』、『立即獎、幸運獎獎金結構模擬分析』、『立即獎與幸運獎總獎金比例分析』。研究中透過問卷收集相關資料,並以敘述性統計量、相關分析、迴歸分析等方法作各相關分析。研究中發現:受訪者對獎金結構的偏好普遍存在下列五個趨勢(偏好程度依序遞減):(1) 傾向高中獎機率;(2) 中獎機率固定下,傾向高額獎項的追求;(3) 對『極大』獎額的渴望;(4) 相對於小獎、大獎,受訪者較漠視中等獎項數量及金額;(5) 立即獎、幸運獎總獎金比例較偏好4:1。最後透過上述五個偏好趨勢,模擬出多份民眾真正欲求的公益彩券獎金結構,提供相關單位制訂獎金結構之參考,以達彩券銷售量極大化的目的。
     The purpose of this paper is to design an appropriate prize structure for the revenue-maximization of the Instant Lottery in Taiwan. The adoption of instant lottery on December 1 of last year basically comes after the 921 earthquake. The instant tickets are amazingly attractive and cause huge attention to the public for the first four issues as expected. However, the sales decrease gradually since the fifth issue due to the increase in the higher prizes in exchange for the probability of winning a prize reduced from 40% to 20% from the fourth issue on. Therefore, a redesign of prize structure must be carried out in order to resume the sale of the instant tickets to their original level in the beginning period. By designing an appropriate prize structure covering three major contents, i.e., the expected value, the probability of winning a prize, and the inequality of the prize distribution, through consumers' perspectives. The consumer's preference is determined by a data set gathered by a systematic stratified sampling method in the Taipei Metropolitan area. The survey results mainly indicate that consumers prefer the higher the probability of winning a prize the better as the most important factor, followed by the highest prize, more small prizes, and the ratio of prize for instant game to the prize for lucky draw. Different combinations of these three major contents make up lots of simulations and an appropriate prize structure then be generated.
期刊論文
1.Shapira, Z.、Venezia, I.(1992)。Size and frequency of prizes as determinants of the demand for lotteries。Organizational Behavior & Human Decision Processes,52,307-318。  new window
2.Friedman, M.、Savage, L. J.(1948)。The Utility Analysis of Choices Involving Risk。Journal of Political Economy,56(4),279-304。  new window
3.劉代洋(1989)。彩券課稅問題之研究。財稅研究(財稅研究雜誌社),21(6),8-15。new window  延伸查詢new window
4.Sprowls, R. C.(1970)。On the Terms of the New York State Lottery。National Tax Journal,23(2),74-82。  new window
會議論文
1.劉代洋(1999)。彩券發行與財政收入分配。臺北。  延伸查詢new window
2.劉代洋(1995)。The History and Development of Lottery in Taiwan。Cambridge, UK。  new window
3.劉代洋(1996)。The Estimation of Demand for Lottery: A Case in the U. K.。Amsterdam, Netherlands。  new window
研究報告
1.劉代洋(1990)。臺北市政府發行愛心彩券研究報告。臺北。  延伸查詢new window
2.行政院研究發展考核委員會(1990)。大家樂問題成因及防制途徑專案委託研究報告。沒有紀錄。  延伸查詢new window
學位論文
1.賴建華(1996)。彩券需求之估計與市場潛力分析,沒有紀錄。  延伸查詢new window
圖書論文
1.劉代洋(1997)。An Analysis of the Economic Impact of the Lottery in Taiwan。Gambling: Public Policies and the Social Science。Reno:University of Nevada。  new window
 
 
 
 
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