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題名：普及高等教育、就業配套與個人生涯未來
書刊名：淡江人文社會學刊
作者：王玉民
作者(外文)：Wang, Yumin R.
出版日期：2001
卷期：8
頁次：頁141-157
主題關鍵詞：高等教育；失業；未來學；Higher education；Unemployment；Futures studies
原始連結：連回原系統網址new window
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　　　　　本論文以未來學的角度，預測普及高等教育對就業市場的影響，以及個人在如此環境中將經歷的生涯未來。宏觀資料蒐集自官方數據，以結構分析技術處理；微觀預測則修改德爾菲普查法後，搭配情節推導方法進行。研究發現，在界定的「中期未來」二十年(2001 - 2020)內，高教背景勞工失業情況日益嚴重，因為適其才的就業機會成長緩慢，然而學子仍絡繹於高教之途。普及高教在科技快速進步與學習型社會出現的推波助瀾下，有利提昇國內學術水準與人口素質。惟因就業市場競爭激烈，失業與低就業者日眾，成為社會潛在負擔，終將影響國家整體競爭力。
　　　　　This paper takes a view of futures studies to forecast how the expansion of higher education influences the structure of the employment market and how an individual experiences his/her career future in Taiwan. Macro-level data were gathered from official sources and were subsequently analyzed by employing a structure analysis technique. Data of micro-level were collected by conducting a Delphi survey and were utilized in scenario writing. Findings indicate that within the range of the defined time frame－"middle-range future" (from 2001 to 2020), the unemployment rate of the labor of higher educational background rapidly multiplies as a result of the stagnant growth in fitting jobs and the increase in the number of students hitting the road of higher education. Technological advancement and the formation of an educated society lead to the upgrade in academic standard and population quality, which credits the policy of expanding higher education. The employment market turns extremely competitive and the number of unemployed and under-employed individuals drastically increases. They become a potential burden to the society and may consequentially weaken the national competitive edge.
期刊論文
1.Pfouts, R. W.(1995)。On the interactions of economics and technology。Atlantic Economic Journal，23(4)，248-255。  new window
2.Crooks, E. D.(1998)。The future belongs to gardeners。New Statesman，127(4402)，15-17。  new window
3.Corry, D.(1996)。Hard times ahead?。Political Quarterly，67(2)，158-161。  new window
4.Broad, D.(1995)。Globalization versus labor。Monthly Review，47(7)，20-32。  new window
5.Acemoglu, D.(1999)。Changes in unemployment and wage inequality: An alternative theory and some evidence。American Economic Review，89(5)，1259-1279。  new window
6.Jacobson, T.、Vredin, A.、Wame, A.(1997)。Common trends and hysteresis in Scandinavian unemployment。European Economic Review，41(9)，1781-1817。  new window
7.Higgins, B.(1994)。Reducing unemployment: Current issues and policy options--a summary of the Bank's 1994 symposium。Economic Review，79(4)，45-56。  new window
8.Golberg, K.、Highfill, J.、McAsey, M.(1998)。Technology choice: The output and employment tradeoff。The American Journal of Economics and Sociology，57(1)，27-47。  new window
9.Lilien, D. M.(1982)。Sectoral shifts and cyclical unemployment。Journal of Political Economy，90(4)，777-793。  new window
10.Lo Presti, A.(1996)。Futures research and complexity。Futures，28(10)，891-902。  new window
11.Joseph, E. R.(1974)。What is future time?。The Futurist，8(4)，178。  new window
12.Jensen, M.(1996)。Overcoming the fear of change。Forbes，158(13)，57-59。  new window
13.Osberg, L.(1991)。Unemployment and inter-industry labor mobility in Canada in the 1980s。Applied Economics，23(11)，1707-1718。  new window
14.Mulder, K.、Van de Weijer, C.、Marchu, V.(1996)。Prospects for eternal sources of vehicle propulsion: Results of a Delphi study。Futures，28(10)，919-945。  new window
15.Mishan, E. J.(1996)。Technological unemployment: Why there are hard times ahead。Political Quarterly，67(2)，151-158。  new window
16.Matzner, E.、Schettkat, R.、Wagner, M.(1990)。Labor market effects of new technology。Futures，22(7)，687-710。  new window
17.Manacorda, M.、Petrongolo, B.(1999)。Skill mismatch and unemployment in OECD countries。Economica，66(262)，181-207。  new window
18.Pissarides, C. A.(1999)。Unemployment response to “skill-biased”, technology shocks: The role of labor market policy。Economic Journal，109(455)，242-244。  new window
19.Pfouts, R. W.(1995)。On the interactions of economics and technology。Atlantic Economic Journal，23(4)，248-255。  new window
20.Wilenius, M.、Tirkkonen, J.(1997)。Climate in the making: Using Delphi for Finish climate policy。Futures，29(9)，845-862。  new window
21.Wang, Y. R.(1999)。Political change and public security--the prospect of Taiwan。Futures，31(1)，57-72。  new window
圖書
1.Haas, J. D.(1988)。Future studies in the K-12 curriculum。CO：Social Science Education Consortium。  new window
2.Haas, J. D.(1987)。Teaching about the future: Tools, topics, and issues。CO：Social Science Education Consortium。  new window
3.Jones, T. E.(1980)。Options for the future: A comparative analysis of policy-oriented forecasts。NY：Praeger。  new window
4.Thompson, F. G.(1992)。Looking back on the future。Ottawa：Futurescan International Inc.。  new window
5.Schwarz, B.、Svedin, U.、Wittrock, B.(1982)。Methods in futures studies: Problems and applications。CO：Westview Press。  new window
6.Sardar, Z.(1987)。The future of Muslim civilization。NY：Mansell。  new window
7.Toffler, A.(1980)。The Third Wave。New York：Williams, Morrow & Co.。  new window
 
 
 
 
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