本研究首次提出運用動態系統方法進行動態客運量模擬預測之研究，此動態研究分析與模式化方法之優點，在於其可應用於客運量隨時間變化之動態分析，例如數量化、穩定性和均衡分析；此外亦可進一步應用於分析客運業者間的競爭行為。在合理的假設下，本研究以所蒐集之歷史運量資料構建描述客運量變化的一並常微分方程式，並求得一階微分方程式的解析解與預測運量，最後利用歷史資料進行驗證，研究結果顯示，預測結果與歷史資料兩者極為吻合。本研究乃據此提出結論及後續研究方向之建議。

　　　　　In this paper, we for the first time propose a dynamical system (DS) approach to describe the evlution of passenger trips over time in scheduled express service. The analysis and model of this dynamical study is of several advantages. First, it can be used for dynamical analysis, such as quantitative, stability, and equilibrium analysis. Second, it can be further applied to analyze the competition behaviors among various operators in the coach industry. Under some proper assumptions, the ordinary differential equation (ODE) model is formulated together with the collected data to describe the passenger variation. We solve this first order ODE with an analytical technique, and find the result fits the collected data. Some concluding remarks and future works are also suggested in this work.