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題名:中程預算收支推估與判斷預測之研究
書刊名:公共行政學報
作者:郭昱瑩 引用關係
作者(外文):Kuo, Yu-ying
出版日期:2002
卷期:7
頁次:頁1-29
主題關鍵詞:中程計畫預算中程預算收支推估判斷預測社會判斷理論稜鏡模型Mid-term budgeting systemMid-term revenue and expenditure forecastingJudgmental forecastingSocial judgment theoryLens model
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
相關次數:
  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(1) 博士論文(1) 專書(1) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:1
  • 共同引用共同引用:33
  • 點閱點閱:39
期刊論文
1.蘇彩足、王正隆(19960400)。我國政府總體經濟預測之評估。公共政策學報,17,1-42。  延伸查詢new window
2.Klein, H. E.、Linneman, R. E.(1984)。Environmental Assessment : An International Study of Corporate Practice。The Journal of Business Strategy,5,66-75。  new window
3.施宗英(20000800)。計畫績效衡量的運用與推動策略。研考雙月刊,24(4)=218,44-53。  延伸查詢new window
4.郭昱瑩(20010600)。論「阿扁政府再造白皮書」的預算改革。中國行政評論,10(3),53-77。new window  延伸查詢new window
5.韋端(19971000)。論如何有效推動--中程計畫預算作業制度。研考雙月刊,21(5)=201,3-9。  延伸查詢new window
6.Slovic, P.、Lichtenstein, Sarah(1971)。Comparison of Bayesian and Regression Approaches to the Study of Information Processing in Judgment。Organizational Behavior and Human Performance,6(6),649-744。  new window
7.詹中原(19950600)。中共宏觀調控政策之「國家公務員」制度改革--社會判斷理論的政策檢證。人事管理,32(6)=376,11-18。  延伸查詢new window
8.詹中原(19950200)。中共宏觀調控政策之「國家」公務員制度改革--社會判斷理論(Social Judgment Theory)的政策檢證。中國行政,57,1-13。  延伸查詢new window
9.Dalrymple, D. J.(1987)。Sales forecasting practices: results from a United States survey。International Journal of Forecasting,3(3/4),379-391。  new window
10.劉立倫(19990900)。分散式專家的階層決策體系下決策績效改善:群體透鏡模型觀點之研究。中山管理評論,7(3),875-906。new window  延伸查詢new window
11.汪銘生、黃國良(19911000)。高雄市製造業勞動條件之研究--社會判斷理論之應用。管理評論,1-21。new window  延伸查詢new window
12.杜榮瑞(19980600)。行為會計研究之回顧:問題與典範。中山管理評論,6(2),293-330。new window  延伸查詢new window
13.Dawes, R. M.(1979)。The Robust Beauty of Improper Linear Models in Decision Marking。American Psychologist,34,571-582。  new window
14.Willemain, T.(1989)。Graphical Adjustment of Statistical Forecasts。International Journal of Forecasting,5,179-185。  new window
15.Rothe, J. T.(1978)。Effectiveness of Sales Forecasting Methods。Industrial Marketing Management,April,114-118。  new window
16.Schmitt, N.(1978)。Comparison of Subjective and Objective Weighting Strategies in Changing Task Situations。Organizational Behavior and Human Performance,21,171-188。  new window
17.Remus, W.、O'Connor, M.、Griggs, K.(1995)。Does Reliable Information Improve the Accuracy of Judgmental Forecasts?。International Journal of Forecasting,11,285-293。  new window
18.Connor, M. O.、Lawrence, M.(1992)。Exploring Judgmental Forecasting。International Journal of Forecasting,8,15-26。  new window
19.Goldberg, L. R.(1968)。Simple Models or Simple Processes? Some Research on Clinical Judgments。American Psychologist,23,483-496。  new window
20.Cook, R. L.、Stewart, T. R.(1975)。A Comparison of Seven Methods for Obtaining Subjective Description of Judgmental Policy。Organizational Behavior and Human Performance,13,31-45。  new window
21.Camerer, C.(1981)。General Conditions for the Success of Bootstrapping Models。Organizational Behavior and Human Performance,27,411-422。  new window
22.Bowman, E.(1963)。Consistency and Optimality in Managerial Decision Making。Management Science,9,310-321。  new window
23.詹中原(1995)。中共宏觀調控政策之「國家公務員」制度改革-社會判斷理論的政策檢證。人事管理,32(5),4-9。  延伸查詢new window
24.黃澄月(1987)。認知與衝突:簡介社會判斷理論在婚姻諮商上的應用。諮商與輔導,17,12-14。  延伸查詢new window
25.黃菊英(1998)。稅收預測方法之檢討與改進。財稅研究(財稅研究雜誌社),30(5),80-91。new window  延伸查詢new window
26.柯惠雄(1996)。指標之數量方法和權值的計算-社會判斷理論。中國統計通訊,7(4),20-22。  延伸查詢new window
27.徐仁輝(1999)。預算法修正之剖析。國策專刊,9,18-20。  延伸查詢new window
28.Hammond, K. R.、Todd, F. J.、Wilkins, M. M.、Mitchell, T. O.(1966)。Cognitive conflict between persons: Application of the lens model paradigm。Journal of Experimental Social Psychology,2,343-360。  new window
29.Bunn, D.、Wright, G.(1991)。Interaction of judgmental and statistical forecasting methods: Issues and analysis。Management Science,37(5),501-518。  new window
30.Jonas, K.、Rest, G. J.(1992)。Virginia's Revenue Forecasting Process。Public Budgeting and Finance,12(2),70-81。  new window
31.McNees, S. K.(1990)。Man vs. Model? The Role of Judgment in Forecasting。New England Economic Review,July-August,41-52。  new window
32.McNees, S. K.(1990)。The Role of Judgment in Macroeconomic Forecasting Accuracy。International Journal of Forecasting,6,287-299。  new window
33.Shkurti, W. J.(1990)。User's Guide to State Revenue Forecasting。Public Budgeting and Finance,10(1),79-94。  new window
34.Turner, D.(1990)。The role of judgment in macroeconomic forecasting。Journal of Forecasting,9,315-346。  new window
35.Wright, G.、Lawrence, M. J.(1996)。The Role and Validity of Judgment in Forecasting。International Journal of Forecasting,12,1-8。  new window
36.Summers, D. A.、Taliaferro, J. D.、Fletcher, D.(1970)。Subjective vs. Objective Description of Judgment Policy。Psychonomic Science,18,249-250。  new window
37.O'Connor, M.(1989)。Models of Human Behavior and Confidence in Judgment: A Review。International Journal of Forecasting,9,163-172。  new window
38.Diamantopoulos, A.、Matthews, B. P.(1989)。Judgmental Revision of Sales Forecasts: a Longitudinal Extension。Journal of Forecasting,8,129-140。  new window
39.Lawson, R. W.(1981)。Traffic Usage Forecasting: Is it an Art or a Science?。Telephony,Feb.,19-24。  new window
40.Keeley, S. M.、Doherty, M. E.(1972)。Use of Subjective Predictors in Regression Analysis for Policy Capturing。Journal of Applied Psychology,56,277-278。  new window
41.李顯峰(1999)。預算的基本構成內容:歲入、歲出的主要構成要素。國策專刊,9,5-8。  延伸查詢new window
會議論文
1.賴清祺(2002)。政府重大公共建設與中長程預算機制。預算平衡與中程計畫預算制度,行政院主計處、世新大學行政管理學系 (會議日期: 2002)。行政院主計處。  延伸查詢new window
2.蘇彩足(2002)。美國聯邦政府中程計畫預算機制之研析。預算平衡與中程計畫預算制度,行政院主計處、世新大學行政管理學系 (會議日期: 2002)。臺北:行政院主計處。  延伸查詢new window
研究報告
1.郭昱瑩(2001)。臺灣與美國績效預算的比較分析。沒有紀錄。  延伸查詢new window
圖書
1.徐仁輝(2001)。預算赤字與預算改革。臺北:智勝文化。  延伸查詢new window
2.許純君、Forecasting Principles and Application、DeLurgio(1999)。預測的原則與應用。臺北市:台灣西書出版社。  延伸查詢new window
3.McGee, V. E.、Wheelwright, S. C.、Makridakis, S.(1983)。Forecasting: Methods and Applications。New York, NY:John Wiley & Sons。  new window
4.郭昱瑩(2002)。公共政策:決策輔助模型個案分析。臺北:智勝文化。  延伸查詢new window
5.Cooksey, R. W.(1996)。Judgment Analysis: Theory, Methods and Applications。University of New England。  new window
6.Armstrong, J. S.(1985)。Long-Range Forecasting: From Crystal Ball to Computer。New York:Wiley-Interscience。  new window
7.Hammond, K. R.(1996)。Human Judgment and Social Policy: Irreducible Uncertainty, Inevitable Error, Unavoidable Injustice。New York, NY:Oxford University Press。  new window
8.林茂文(1992)。時間數列分析與預測。臺北:華泰書局。  延伸查詢new window
9.Poterba, J. M.、VonHagen, J.(1999)。Fiscal Institution and Fiscal Performance。Chicago, IL:The University of Chicago Press。  new window
10.(1998)。Forecasting with Judgment。Forecasting with Judgment。West Sussex, UK。  new window
11.Winkler, R. L.(1987)。Judgmental and Bayesian Forecasting。Judgmental and Bayesian Forecasting。New York, NY。  new window
12.(1987)。Judgmental Forecasting。Judgmental Forecasting。West Sussex, UK。  new window
13.Shim, J. K.、Siegel, J. G.(1988)。Handbook of Financial Analysis, Forecasting and Modeling。London, UK:Prentice-Hall。  new window
14.Smedulund, J.(1955)。Multiple Probability Learning。Oslo, Norway:Oslo University Press。  new window
15.New York State Division of Budget(1997)。Executive Budget。New York State Government。  new window
16.Makridakis, S.、Wheelwright, S.(1987)。Introduction to Forecasting: Handbook of Forecasting。Introduction to Forecasting: Handbook of Forecasting。New York, NY:Wiley。  new window
17.郭明哲(1991)。預測方法-理論與實例。臺北:中興管理顧問公司。  延伸查詢new window
18.行政院(2000)。行政院所屬各機關中程(九十至九十三年度)施政計畫編審作業注意事項總說明。行政院所屬各機關中程(九十至九十三年度)施政計畫編審作業注意事項總說明。沒有紀錄。  延伸查詢new window
19.Alt, R.(1993)。State Revenue Forecasting and Estimation Practices。State Revenue Forecasting and Estimation Practices。Washington, DC。  new window
20.Axelrod, D.(1998)。Budgeting for Modern Government。New York, NY:St. Martin's Press。  new window
21.Blondal, G.(1986)。Fiscal Policy in the Smaller Industrial Countries, 1972-82。International Monetary Fund。  new window
22.行政院主計處(2001)。中程計畫預算作業制度報告。中程計畫預算作業制度報告。沒有紀錄。  延伸查詢new window
23.行政院主計處(2000)。行政院主計處中程(九十至九十三年度)施政計畫。行政院主計處中程(九十至九十三年度)施政計畫。沒有紀錄。  延伸查詢new window
圖書論文
1.Hammond, Kenneth R.、Stewart, Thomas R.、Brehmer, Berndt、Steinmann, Derick O.(1975)。Social Judgment Theory。Human Judgment and Decision Processes。Academic Press。  new window
2.Stewart, T. R.(1988)。Judgment Analysis: Procedures。Human Judgment: The SJT View。North-Holland。  new window
 
 
 
 
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