二十世紀臺灣最嚴重的地震發生於民國八十八年九月二十一日的中部地區，這七．三級的九二一大地望，造成本島多處著名觀光設施受損，其中尤以來華觀光旅遊所受之衝擊最為嚴重。由於日本長久以來高居最大來華觀光之國家，所以為了挽救迅速下滑的日本市場，政府在震後對於日本地區迅速採取因應措施。因此，本研究之研究目的，欲分析在觀光局積極執行觀光振興的措施下，日本來華的觀光客人數，在九二一大地震兩年後其恢復之狀況。研究方法採數列Box-Jenkins之SARIMA模型，預測震後二十四個月之來華觀光人數，預測值再與實際值進行比較。研結果顯示，在九二一大地震兩年後，日本來華的觀光人數已呈現明顯恢復。

Taiwan’s most serious earthquake of the 20th century struck the central part of the island on September 21, 1999. The so-called September 21st Earthquake, measuring 7.3 on the Richter scale, damaged tourist facilities at numerous popular destinations, with the international tourist arrivals suffering the brunt of the impact. Being that Japan has long been as Taiwan’s leading generator of international tourism, no effort can be spared toward regaining the Japanese market. In order to recapture tourists, the government of Taiwan implemented a series of swift countermeasures to reverse the sharp decline of Japanese inflow. The objective of this study is to propose a method for estimating the impact of the September 21st Earthquake on Japanese visitor arrivals. The time series of Box-Jenkins SARIMA model is employed to predict the volume of Japanese visitors following the quake (September 1999 to August 2001). The results are then compared with actual volume of visitor arrivals to ascertain the recovery status. Empirical results indicate that the Japanese inbound arrivals have significantly recovered from the earthquake devastation.