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題名：檢定股利與負債的預測模式--抵換理論與融資順位理論
書刊名：管理評論
作者：詹家昌 引用關係／徐民欣
作者(外文)：Chan, Chia-chung／Hsu, Min-hsin
出版日期：2003
卷期：22:1
頁次：頁25-52
主題關鍵詞：抵換理論；融資順位理論；Tradeoff theory；Pecking order theory
原始連結：連回原系統網址new window
相關次數：
  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(5) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:5
  • 共同引用共同引用:19
  • 點閱點閱:207
本文主要目的係檢定靜態抵換理論與融資順位理論對股利與負債的預測，且將檢定重點放在公司獲利、投資機會及盈餘和現金流量的波動上。由於公司股利決策與融資決策有其相關性，因此對其做一檢定除了有助於瞭解企業決策的關連外，亦有助於實證結果的確認。尤其公司的融資與股利決策有其長期趨勢，因此除了擴大樣本期間與適當的樣本分類外，本文以Newey and West(1987)與Fama and MacBoth(1973)所採取的方法加以實證與比較，結果發現考慮時間序列特性的方法有更顯著的結果，顯示企業決策有持續或成長的特性，而有關抵換理論與融資順位理論對股利與負債預測的假設大部分在本文皆獲得實證支持，顯示此兩種理論在台灣企業的長期融資與股利決策上有其一定的預測能力。
The purpose of this paper is to test tradeoff and pecking order predictions about dividends and debt. Our discussion of the tradeoff and pecking order models largely focuses on predictions about how leverage and the dividend payout ratio vary with profitability, investment opportunity and volatility of earnings and cash flows. In addition to expand the samples, we use two empirical methods adopted by Newey and West(1987) and Fama and MacBeth(1973) separately. The empirical results approximately match to our hypothesis that according to the prediction of tradeoff and pecking order theory. We confirm the long-term predictive ability of both theories about dividends and debt in Taiwan business.
期刊論文
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14.Baskin, Jonathan(1989)。An Empirical Investigation of the Pecking Order Hypothesis。Financial Management，18(1)，26-35。  new window
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17.Fama, Eugene F.、French, Kenneth R.(2002)。Testing Trade-Off and Pecking Order Predictions About Dividends and Debt。Review of Financial Studies，15(1)，1-33。  new window
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23.Myers, Stewart C.(1984)。The Capital Structure Puzzle。Journal of Finance，39(3)，574-592。  new window
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25.Shyam-Sunder, Lakshmi、Myers, Stewart C.(1999)。Testing Static Tradeoff against Pecking Order Models of Capital Structure。Journal of Financial Economics，51(2)，219-244。  new window
26.Myers, Stewart C.、Majluf, Nicholas S.(1984)。Corporate Financing and Investment Decisions When Firms Have Information That Investor Do Not Have。Journal of Financial Economics，13(2)，187-221。  new window
27.Fama, Eugene F.、MacBeth, James D.(1973)。Risk, Return, and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests。Journal of Political Economy，81(3)，607-636。  new window
28.Jensen, Michael C.、Meckling, William H.(1976)。Theory of the firm: Managerial behavior, agency costs and ownership structure。Journal of Financial Economics，3(4)，305-360。  new window
29.Newey, Whitney K.、West, Kenneth D.(1987)。A Simple, Positive Semi-Definite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix。Econometrica，55(3)，703-708。  new window
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學位論文
1.林呈祥(1994)。臺灣科技產業融資行為之實證研究(碩士論文)。國立交通大學。  延伸查詢new window
2.顏偉志(1998)。臺灣地區新上市公司融資順位與資本結構之研究(碩士論文)。國立台灣大學。  延伸查詢new window
3.蔡崇彬(1994)。新竹科學園區產業融資行為：實證研究(碩士論文)。國立交通大學。  延伸查詢new window
4.王春琇(1995)。資本結構決定因素之新證--最適資本結構與融資順位理論之比較(碩士論文)。國立中興大學。  延伸查詢new window
5.蘇士哲(2000)。資本結構決定因素之研究--台灣資訊電子業上市公司之實證(碩士論文)。國立中央大學。  延伸查詢new window
6.黃重裕(1999)。產業最適資本結構之研究--以資訊電子業為例(碩士論文)。國立政治大學。  延伸查詢new window
7.郭逸真(1996)。融資順位理論於成長性企業之實證研究(碩士論文)。國立中央大學。  延伸查詢new window
8.林建志(1997)。融資順位理論於國內新上市公司之實證研究，沒有紀錄。  延伸查詢new window
9.陳金塔(1996)。臺灣資訊電子業與紡織業之資本結構影響因素及最適資本結構之研究－以上市公司為例，沒有紀錄。  延伸查詢new window
10.方貞文(1995)。臺灣地區上市公司融資方式之再研究，沒有紀錄。  延伸查詢new window
 
 
 
 
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