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題名:以混合預測模式解析季節性資料
書刊名:管理研究學報
作者:曹銳勤 引用關係
作者(外文):Tsaur, Ruey-chyn
出版日期:2003
卷期:3:2
頁次:頁169-186
主題關鍵詞:趨勢分析季節指數模糊相關模糊時間序列Trend analysisSeasonality indexFuzzy relationFuzzy time series model
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
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  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(0) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:0
  • 共同引用共同引用:5
  • 點閱點閱:13
在需求預測的規劃與應用上,模糊時間序列模式從連績兩期資料間的模糊關係推估下一期之預測值。雖然模糊時間序列提供了一個不概念的預測工,然而對於季節性資料的預測皆析,模糊時間序列的分析步驟尚缺乏一套穩健且精準流程。因此本研究從模糊時間序列模式著手,結合統計方法之概念轉換季節性資料成為較稱定之資料,並適當修正模糊時間序列模式,使得預測的應用績效更精良。最後,將舉一實例說明之。
In the demand forecasting, the fuzzy time series model has its own advantages to be a forecasting tool, it is still lack of a completely and robustly analysis procedure for seasonal time series. In order to cope with such problem, we combined the statistical methods into fuzzy time series model to transform the seasonal data to be a stationary type to improve extrapolative performance in the fuzzy time series model. Finally, an example is provided for illustration.
期刊論文
1.Chang, P. T.(1997)。Fuzzy seasonality forecasting。Fuzzy Sets and Systems,90,1-10。  new window
2.Hwang, J. R.、Chen, Shyi-Ming、Lee, Chia-Hoang(1998)。Handling forecasting problems using fuzzy time series。Fuzzy Sets and Systems,100(1-3),217-228。  new window
3.Tanaka, H.、Uejim, S.、Asai, K.(1982)。Fuzzy Linear Model, Fuzzy Linear Regression Model。IEEE Trans. System, Man and Cybernet,12,903-907。  new window
4.Tsaur, R. C.、Wang, H. F.(1999)。Outliers in Fuzzy Regression Analysis。International Journal of Fuzzy Systems,30(8),113-119。  new window
5.Tsaur, R. C.。Fuzzy Double Exponential Smoothing Model。Fuzzy Sets and Systems。  new window
6.Tsaur, R. C.、Wang, H. F.、Yang, J. C. O.(002)。Fuzzy Regression for Seasonal Time Series Analysis。International Journal of Information Technology and Decision Making,1(1),165-175。  new window
7.曹銳勤(20011100)。以灰色預測值建構模糊指數平滑模式。工業工程學刊,18(6),95-103。new window  延伸查詢new window
8.曾芳美、曾國雄、袁建中、虞孝成(2001)。Fuzzy ARIMA Model for Forecasting the Foreign Exchange Market。Fuzzy Sets and Systems,118(1),9-19。  new window
9.Song, Q.、Chissom, B. S.(1993)。Forecasting enrollments with fuzzy time series。Fuzzy Sets and Systems,54(1),1-9。  new window
10.Song, Q.、Chisson, B. S.(1993)。Fuzzy time series and its models。Fuzzy Sets and Systems,54(3),269-277。  new window
11.Song, Q.、Chissom, B. S.(1994)。Forecasting Enrollments with Fuzzy Time Series。Fuzzy Sets and Systems,62(1),1-8。  new window
會議論文
1.Lee, T.、Wang, H. F.(1996)。A Method for Fuzzy Time Series Analysis-An Example for Telecommunication Demands。IFORS,(會議日期: July 8-12)。Vancouver,Canada。  new window
2.Lin, L. S.、Lin, C. Y.(2000)。Forecasting Seasonal Requirements in Telecommunication with Fuzzy Time Series。Bellman, 8th。Hsinchu, Taiwan。  new window
學位論文
1.李政道(1996)。模糊時間序列分析的方法(碩士論文)。國立清華大學。  延伸查詢new window
圖書
1.Ragsdale, C. T.(2001)。Spreadsheet Modeling and Decision Making。USA:South-Western College Publishing。  new window
2.Hanke, J. E.、Reitsch, A. G.(1998)。Business Forecasting。Upper Saddle River, New Jersey:Prentice-Hall, Inc.。  new window
 
 
 
 
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