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題名：資訊環境對盈餘預測資訊內涵之影響
書刊名：東吳經濟商學學報
作者：李建然 引用關係／鄭雅綾
作者(外文)：Lee, Jan-zan／Cheng, Yea-ling
出版日期：2004
卷期：47
頁次：頁1-32
主題關鍵詞：自願性盈餘預測；強制性盈餘預測；資訊內涵；資訊環境；交易市場效果；規模效果；交易量效果；發布意願效果；Voluntary earnings forecast；Mandated earnings forecast；Information content；Information environment；Exchange listing effect；Size effect；Trading volume effect；Announcement willingness effect
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  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(1) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
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  • 共同引用共同引用:43
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本研究探討台灣上市上櫃公司宣布盈餘預測的資訊內涵，是否因為資訊環境的差異而有所不同。本文分別以公司股票交易的市場別、規模大小、產業別及發布意願衡量盈餘預測資訊環境的差異，探討在不同的資訊環境下，盈餘預測宣告對股價變異性 (U統計量) 及異常報酬率的影響是否有明顯的差異。實證結果顯示：市場別、產業別及發布意願各自捕捉到不同的資訊環境特徵'上櫃公司、屬電子業的公司及自願性的盈餘預測，其資訊內涵分別較上市公司、非屬電子業的公司及強制性的盈餘預測大。但是，在美國文獻中常發現的規模效果，在台灣的環境下並不存在，即規模小的公司，其盈餘預測的資訊內涵並沒有明顯大於規模大的公司，這可能是因為台灣股市上市上櫃公司家數並不像美國那麼多。因此，媒體的曝光率，並不因為公司規模的大小而有明顯的差異。本研究的發現提供了在探討盈餘預測資訊內涵時，資訊環境是一個不可忽略的因素。
This study explores the effect of environment on information content of earnings forecast announced by firms listed on Taiwan Stock Exchange (TSE) and over-the-counter (OTC). Four proxy variables are used to measure the difference of information environment among firms: listing market, firm size, industry, and mandatory vs. voluntary earnings forecast. This paper then examines the stock price variability and abnormal returns in the context of information environmental disparity. Earnings forecast is found to possess more information content in the cases of firms being listed on the OTC, firms in the electrical sector, and issuing voluntary forecast. In contrast to the significant size effect found in most U.S. literature, smaller firms in Taiwan do not exhibit higher information content of their earnings forecast. This is speculated that the extent of a firm's media exposure or analyst following does not bear a relationship with the firm size. The findings provide evidences that information environment disparity could not be overlooked when we explore the information content of earnings forecast.
Other
1.Penman, H. S.(1980)。An Empirical Investigation of the Voluntary Disclosure of Corporate Earnings Forecasts。  new window
期刊論文
1.Brown, P.、Kennelly, J. W.(1972)。The information content of quarterly earnings: An extension and some future evidence。The Journal of Business，35(1)，403-415。  new window
2.Bhushan, R.(1989)。Collection of Information about Publicly Traded Firms。Journal of Accounting & Economics，11(2)，183-206。  new window
3.李建然(20000400)。影響臺灣上市公司自願性盈餘預測頻率之研究。會計評論，32，49-79。new window  延伸查詢new window
4.Bujaki, M. L.、Richardson, A. J.(1997)。A Citation Trail Review of the Uses of Firm Size in Accounting Research。Journal of Accounting Literature，16，1-27。  new window
5.Kasznik, Ron、Lev, Baruch(1995)。To warn or not to warn: Management disclosures in the face of an earnings surprise。The Accounting Review，70(1)，113-134。  new window
6.Lev, Baruch、Penman, Stephen H.(1990)。Voluntary forecast disclosure, nondisclosure, and stock prices。Journal of Accounting Research，28(1)，49-76。  new window
7.King, R.、Pownall, G.、Waymire, G.(1990)。Expectations Adjustment via Timely Management Forecasts: Review, Synthesis, and Suggestions for Future Research。Journal of Accounting Literature，9，113-44。  new window
8.Beaver, William H.(1968)。The Information Content of Annual Earnings Announcement。Journal of Accounting Research，6(Suppl.)，67-92。  new window
9.Healy, P. M.、Palepu, K. G.(1993)。The effect of firms' financial disclosure strategies on stock prices。Accounting Horizons，7(1)，1-11。  new window
10.Han, J.、Wild, J.(1991)。Stock Price Behavior Associated with Managers' Earnings and Revenue Forecasts。Journal of Accounting Research，29(1)，79-95。  new window
11.李建然、周俊德(20020100)。管理當局信譽與自願性盈餘預測資訊內涵關係之研究。會計評論，34，77-99。new window  延伸查詢new window
12.Skinner, Douglas J.(1994)。Why firms voluntarily disclose bad News?。Journal of Accounting Research，32(1)，38-60。  new window
13.McNichols, M.(1989)。Evidence of Informational Asymmetries from Management Earnings Forecasts and Stock Returns。The Accounting Review，64(1)，1-27。  new window
14.Boehmer, E.、Musumeci, J.、Poulsen, A. B.(1991)。Event-study Methodology under Conditions of Event-Induced Variance。Journal of Financial Economics，30(2)，253-272。  new window
15.Freeman, R. N.(1987)。The Association between Accounting Earnings and Security Returns for Large and Small Firms。Journal of Accounting and Economics，9(2)，195-228。  new window
16.Ajinkya, Bipin B.、Gift, Michael J.(1984)。Corporate Managers' Earnings Forecasts and Symmetrical Adjustments of Market Expectations。Journal of Accounting Research，22(2)，425-444。  new window
17.吳安妮(19930400)。臺灣經理人員主動揭露盈餘預測資訊內涵之實證研究。會計評論，27，76-107。new window  延伸查詢new window
18.Ball, Ray、Brown, Philip(1968)。An Empirical Evaluation of Accounting Income Numbers。Journal of Accounting Research，6(2)，159-178。  new window
19.Han, J. C. Y.、Wild, J. J.、Ramesh, K.(1989)。Managers' Earnings Forecasts and Intra-Industry Information Transfers。Journal of Accounting and Economics，11(1)，3-33。  new window
20.Lang, M. H.、Lundholm, R. J.(1993)。Cross-sectional determinants of analyst ratings of corporate disclosures。Journal of Accounting Research，31(2)，246-271。  new window
21.Beaver, William H.、Clarke, Roger、Wright, William F.(1979)。The Association between Unsystematic Security Returns and the Magnitude of Earnings Forecast Errors。Journal of Accounting Research，17(2)，316-340。  new window
學位論文
1.黃齊堯(1994)。強制性與自願性會計資訊揭露之信賴度研究--以盈餘預測資訊為探討對象(碩士論文)。國立政治大學。  延伸查詢new window
2.陳招美(1994)。自願性揭露盈餘預測次數多寡之研究(碩士論文)。東吳大學。  延伸查詢new window
圖書
1.Palepu, Krishna G.、Healy, Paul M.、Bernard, Victor L.(2000)。Business Analysis and Valuation: Using Financial Statement。Cincinnati, OH：South-Western Publishing。  new window
其他
1.宋義德(1996)。管理當局自願性財務預測準確性與資訊内涵之研究。  延伸查詢new window
2.李愛玲(1992)。上市公司盈餘預測對股價影響之研究。  延伸查詢new window
3.施雪芬(1993)。盈餘宣告時資訊強度與公司規模之關聯性研究。  延伸查詢new window
4.陳如慧(1994)。經理人員盈餘預測次數多寡之研究。  延伸查詢new window
5.蔡玉璇(2000)。強制性盈餘預測對股價及交易量影響之研究。  延伸查詢new window
6.蕭佩旻(1996)。管理當局盈餘預測其反應係數之研究。  延伸查詢new window
7.Atiase, R.(1985)。Prediscloure Information, Firm Capitalization, and Security Price Behavior around Earnings Announcements。  new window
8.Atiase, R.(1987)。Market Implications of Predisclosure Information: Size and Exchange Effects。  new window
9.Baginski, S. P., E. J. Conrad, and J. M. Hassell(1993)。The Effects of Management Forecast Precision on Equity Pricing and on the Assessment of Earnings Uncertainty。  new window
10.Brown, L. D.(1993)。Earnings Forecasting Research: Its Implication for Capital Market Research。  new window
11.Cox, C. T.(1985)。Further Evidence on the Representativeness of Management Earnings Forecasts。  new window
12.Grant, E. B.(1980)。Market Implications of Differential amounts of Interim Information。  new window
13.Jaggi, G. and J. Lobo(1984)。Information Content of Analysts' Composite Forecast Revisions。  new window
14.Lobo, G. J. and A. W. Mahmoud(1989)。Relationship between Differential amounts of Prior Information and Security Return Variability。  new window
15.Patell, M. J.(1976)。Corporate Forecasts of Earnings Per Share and Stock and Stock Pice Behavior: Empirical Tests。  new window
16.Pownall, G. and G. Waymire(1989)。Voluntary Disclosure Creditability and Securities Prices: Evidence from Management Earnings Forecast: 1969-1973。  new window
17.Pownall, G., G. Wasley, and G. Waymire(1993)。The Stock Price Effects of Alternative Types of Management Earning Forecasts。  new window
18.Ruland, W. and N. E. George(1990)。Factors Associated with the Disclosure of Managers' Forecasts。  new window
19.Waymire, G(1984)。Additional Evidence of the Information Content of Management Earnings Forecasts。  new window
20.Waymire, G.(1985)。Earnings Volatility and Voluntary Management Forecast Disclosur。  new window
 
 
 
 
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