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題名：美國導彈防衛與核武態勢評估對中國核武政策影響
書刊名：問題與研究
作者：丁樹範 引用關係
作者(外文)：Ding, Arthur S.
出版日期：2005
卷期：44:3
頁次：頁93-123
主題關鍵詞：中國核武戰略；中國核武發展；中國與導彈防衛；中國與核武態勢評估；導彈防衛；核武態勢評估；China's nuclear strategy；China's nuclear development；China and missile defense；China and nuclear posture review；Missile defense；Nuclear posture review
原始連結：連回原系統網址new window
相關次數：
  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(3) 博士論文(3) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:3
  • 共同引用共同引用:8
  • 點閱點閱:40
美國正在發展中的導彈防衛體系及公佈的核武態勢評估，給中國的核武發展帶來衝擊。其涉及中國與美國的核武戰略平衡與中國的國家安全、核武使用門檻可能降低及引發潛在核武軍備競賽、全球不擴張議題、外太空軍事競賽以及中國對臺灣的政策等。中國的因應之道是，在考慮中國核武存活率和可靠度技術突破基礎上，適度增加長程核武數量，而不是大量增加攻擊性長程核武數量。
The US Missile Defense system and the policy implications of the announced Nuclear Posture Review have impacted on China's Nuclear Weapons policy. Issues involved include: strategic balance and China's national security, unclear weapons threshold, arms race, global non-proliferation, the militarization of outer space, and China's military policy vis a vis Taiwan. China responded by moderately depolying more long range missiles rathe than increasing strategic weapons.
期刊論文
1.朱強國(2002)。美國核威懾戰略的調整。現代國際關係，2002(2)，28-31。  延伸查詢new window
2.沈丁立(2004)。中國應該確保有效的核威懾。環球視野，2004(34)。  延伸查詢new window
3.時殷弘(2000)。美國國家導彈防禦計畫與中國的對策。太平洋學報，2000(4)，39-44。  延伸查詢new window
4.張文木(1999)。台灣問題與中國前途。戰略與管理，5，5-15。  延伸查詢new window
5.鄒雲華(1998)。戰區導彈防禦(TMD)與全球和地區安全的關係。國際問題研究，1，27-29。  延伸查詢new window
6.賈浩(1999)。『全面禁止核子試驗條約』與中國的政策選擇。美國研究，13(4)。  延伸查詢new window
7.樊吉社(2000)。威脅評估、國內政治與冷戰後美國的導彈防禦政策。美國研究，14(3)。  延伸查詢new window
8.顧國良(2002)。中國的軍控應對策略：兼論小布希政府軍控思想與政策的調整及變化。戰略與管理，2002(4)，77-84。  延伸查詢new window
9.Blair, Bruce(2000)。START III, Nuclear War Plans and the Cold War Mindset。The Defense Monitor，29(5)。  new window
10.Gill, Bates、Medeiros, Evan(2000)。Foreign and Domestic Influences on China's Arms Control Nonproliferation Policies。The China Quarterly，161，66-94。  new window
11.Green, Michael L.、Dalton, Toby F.(2000)。Asian Reactions to US Missile Defense。NBR Analysisy，11(3)。  new window
12.Johnston, Alastair I.(1996)。Learning vs. Adaptation: Explaining Change in Chinese Arms Control Policy in the 1980s and 1990s。The China Journal，35，27-61。  new window
13.Johnston, Alastair Iain(1995)。China's New 'Old Thinking': The Concept of Limited Deterrence。International Security，20(3)，5-42。  new window
14.Li, Bin、Zhou, Baogen、Liu, Zhiwei(2001)。China Will Have to Respond。The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists，57(6)，25-28。  new window
15.Missile Encirclement: China's Interest in Missile Controls。Journal of the Federationof American Scientists，51(5)。  new window
16.Swaine, Michael D.、Runyon, Loren H.(2002)。Ballistic Missiles and Missile Defense in Asia。NBR Analysis，13(3)。  new window
17.吳展(2002)。反導條約與美國的反導計畫。美國研究，16(1)，7-21。  延伸查詢new window
18.朱鋒(2002)。美國「核態勢評估報告」：恐嚇還是政策？。現代國際關係，2002(4)，17-23。  延伸查詢new window
19.李彬(2002)。美國核武器對準中國？。世界知識，2002(7)，16-17。  延伸查詢new window
20.丁樹範(19991100)。中共對美國「戰區飛彈防衛計畫」的態度。問題與研究，38(11)，1-18。new window  延伸查詢new window
會議論文
1.He, Yingbo、Qiu, Yong(2000)。Will BMD Systems Be Effective? The Effect of Countermeasures on the Kill Probability of BMD Systems。The 7th ISODARC-Bo-ijing Seminar on Arms Control，the China Institute for Contempor-ary International Relations 。Xian。  new window
2.Huang, Zuwei(199609)。TMD and Global/Regional Stability。The ISODARCO and China Institute for Contemporary International Relations, co-sponsored 5th China-ISODARCO Conference on Arms Control，(會議日期: 1996/09/11-09/16)。Chengdu, Sichuan Province。  new window
3.Li, Bin、Wu, Rui(2004)。The Impact of US Regional and Global Nuclear Policies on China: A Strategic Perspective。Workshop on Prospect for East Asian Nuclear Disarmawenty，(會議日期: 2004/03/11-03/12)。Hiroshima。  new window
4.Liu, Er-xun(1996)。The New Development of Ballistic Missile Defense and Its Influence。the 5th China-ISODARCO Conference on Arms Control，(會議日期: 1996/11/11-11/15)。Chengdu, Sichuan。  new window
5.Mulvenon, James(2002)。China's New Nuclear Calculus。The CAPS/Rand Interna-tional Conference on the PLA Affairs，(會議日期: 2002/11/07-11/08)。Taipei。  new window
6.Qiu, Yong(2002)。Preliminaiy Study on the Threat of Precision Strike Conventional Weapons to Nuclear Weapons。7th ISODARCO-Beijing Seminar on Arms Control，IAPCM, CICIR, ISODARCO and Xian JiaoTong University (會議日期: 2002/08/08-08/12)。Shaaxi Province。  new window
7.Sa, Zukang(1999)。Some Thoughts on Non-Proliferation。The 7th Carnegie Interna-tional Non-Proliferation Conference，(會議日期: 1999/01/11-01/12)。Washington, D.C.。  new window
圖書
1.于巨浪(1998)。日本軍情瞭望。北京：國防大學出版社。  延伸查詢new window
2.袁易(20040000)。中國遵循國際導彈建制的解析。臺北：五南。new window  延伸查詢new window
3.曾祥穎(2001)。美國飛彈防禦的過去與現在。台北：麥田出版社。  延伸查詢new window
4.Stokes, Mark A.(1999)。China's Strategic Modernization: Implications for the US。Carlisle, PA：Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College。  new window
5.Lewis, John Wilson、Xue, Litai(1994)。China's Strategic Seapower: The Politics of Force Modernization in the Nuclear Age。Stanford, CA：Stanford University Press。  new window
單篇論文
1.Ta, Kung Pao(19980923)。On US-Japanese Plan to Establish Anti-Ballistic Missile Defense System,FM Spokesman: China Opposes Any Attempt to Seek Military Superiority(FBIS-Chi-98-266)。  new window
2.Tung, Fang(1998)。A Warning against Japan's Rising Nuclear Missile Might(FBIS-Chi-98-006)。  new window
3.Wen, Wei Po(19981117)。Sa Zukang: Global Arms Control and China's Mission-Exclusive Interview with Director of the Foreign M inistry's Arms Control Department(FBIS-Chi-98-321)。  new window
4.Yan, Xuetong(199812)。Impact of TMD on Northeast Asian Security。  new window
其他
1.(20001213)。中國成功試射東風洲際導彈，http://newssearch.bbc.co.uk/hi/chinese/news/newsid_1068000/10681852.stm>， 2000/12/13。  new window
2.(20050204)。烏克蘭議會調查向中共軍售醜聞，http://www.epochtimes.com/gb/5/2/4/n803788.htm， 2005/02/04。  延伸查詢new window
3.(20020818)。解放軍南海試射新導彈 命中六千公里目標 較美三叉戟優勝，http://www.the~sun.com.hk/channels/news/20020818/20020818024542_0001.html， 2002/08/18。  延伸查詢new window
4.(19990209)。何謂戰區飛彈防禦系統？，http://www.chinatimes.com.tw/papers/ctim es/ cchina/88020901.htm， 1999/02/09。  new window
5.(20030129)。中國擁有強大的核反擊力量 專家詳解核安全，http://news_big5_enorth_com_cn/system/2003/01/29/000500344.shtml， 2003/01/29。  延伸查詢new window
6.(20020813)。中國3年內將發射20顆衛星，http ://news.creaders.net/big5/headline/newsPool/13A142053.html， 2002/08/13。  new window
7.(19980105)。導彈實現全天候通訊保障。  延伸查詢new window
8.(20020515)。我國成功進行『一箭雙星』發射 基本建立長期穩定運行衛星對地觀測體系，http://www.pladaily.com.en/gb/pladaily/2002/05/15/2， 2002/05/15。  延伸查詢new window
9.(19990127)。中國時報，http://www.chinatimes.com.tw/papers/ctimes/cchina/88012701.htm。  new window
10.(20021207)。中國時報。  延伸查詢new window
11.(20020323)。中國時報，http://www.future-china.org/tw/fcn/ideas/fcs20020323.htm。  new window
12.(19990808)。聯合報。  延伸查詢new window
13.丁樹範(1999)。中共何發展『東風三十一型』飛彈？，http://diplom acy.nccu.edu.tw/public/old/c-paperl.html。  延伸查詢new window
14.伍凡(2004)。中國積極準備對臺灣進行資訊戰，http://www.boxun.com/hero/wufanwenji/6_l.shtml。  延伸查詢new window
15.席來旺。小布希重新佈署NMD意味著什麼，http://www.21com.com.cn/military/militaiy8.html。  延伸查詢new window
16.周寶根(20011029)。九一一對國際軍備控制的影響，http:// www.zaobao.com.sg/special/us/pagesl/attack291001e.html。  延伸查詢new window
17.美國發展鑽地核彈的真正目標是中國洲際導彈陣地，http://www.Cmmtary.com/articleReader.php? idx=26066。  延伸查詢new window
18.張清敏。導彈防禦體系與二十一世紀亞太格局，http://www.21com.com.cn/weng464.html。  延伸查詢new window
19.China’s Attitude toward Outer Space/Space Weapons，http://www.nti.org/db/china/spacepos.htm。  new window
20.(20020313)。Nation Prompts US to Explain Nuke Report，http://wwwl.chinadaily.com.cn/ news/2002-03-13/60618.html。  new window
21.(19990125)。Chinese Official Urges Broader, Revised MTCR。  new window
22.Director of Central Intelligence(2001)。Foreign Missile Developments and the Ballistic Missile Threat through 2015，http://www.cia.gov/nic/pubs/others_products/Unclassifiedballisticmissil-efmal.htm。  new window
23.Embassy of the People's Republic of China in the US(2002)。China 'Deeply Shocked' over Pentagon Secret Report: FM Spokesman，http://www.china-embassy.org/eng/26489.html。  new window
24.Embassy of the People's Republic of China in the US(2002)。China Demands Official and More Clear Explanation on US Nuclear Weapon Report，http://www.china-embassy.org/eng/26556.html。  new window
25.Gertz, Bill(19970523)。Chinese ICBM Will Threaten US, Pacific by 2000。  new window
26.Gertz, Bill(19990916)。China Develops Warhead Decoys to Defeat US Defense。  new window
27.Gordon, Michael R.(20020310)。US Nuclear Plan Sees New Weapon and New Targets，http://www/why-war.com/news/2002/03/10/usnuclear.html。  new window
28.Medeiros, Evan S.，Yuan, Jingdong(2002)。The US Nuclear Posture Review and China's Responses，http://cns.miis.edu/pubs/week/020401.htm。  new window
29.Richter, Paul(20020309)。US Work up Plan for Using Nuclear Arms，http://www.nadir.org/initiative/ agp/free/9-11/ us_nucleararms.htm。  new window
30.US Department of Defense(1998)。Future Military Capabilities and Strategy of the People's Republic of China，http://www.jya.com/dodl226-98.htm， 1998/11。  new window
31.Warner, Tom(20050318)。Ukraine Admits Exporting Missiles to Iran and China，http://news.ft.eom/cms/s/abf8cc64_9753-lld9~9f01-0000e2511c8.html。  new window
32.FAS/WMD/WMD around the World/DF-31，http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/china/icbm/df-31.htm。  new window
圖書論文
1.Ding, Arthur(2003)。The Lessons of the 1995-1996 Taiwan Strait Crisis: Developing a New Strategy toward the US and Taiwan。The Lesson of History: The Chinese People's Liberation Army at 75。Carlisleㄝ PA：US Army War College Strategic Studies Institute。  new window
 
 
 
 
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