中國現代化戰略進程結構危機，主要關鍵問題係圍繞在農村勞動力是否能順利完成移轉，若否，中國必將面臨失業問題進一步惡化的危機。農業部門發展滯後，將對其他經濟部門產生嚴重的雙向關聯約制。本研究以馬柯夫鍵模型（Markov chain model），分析中國勞動力移轉機率，檢驗中共「十五」計畫所推動的農村剩餘勞動力移轉政策成效，並預測「十一五」計畫，在2010年前，中國勞動力移轉的變化趨勢。

In mainland china, stagnation of the agricultural sector has been a constraint to other sectors’ development. With the process of modernization, the major strategic issue that may lead to a serious structural crisis is whether the transformation of labor migration to other sectors can be successful. If not, China’s economy will face a serious unemployment problem. By using Markov Chain Model, we’ll be able to analyze the probability of China’s labor migration for the last two decades. The performance of China’s labor migration policy can also be evaluated for the tenth 5-years economics plan. Then, using the probability matrix, we’ll be able to forecast the eleventh 5-years economic plan, in order to understanding trend of labor migration, before 2010, to other sectors.