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題名:論大地工程的不確定性與風險評估
書刊名:危機管理學刊
作者:紀雲曜 引用關係李雅芬 引用關係李上妤
作者(外文):Chi, Y. Y.Lee, Y. F.Lee, Y. S.
出版日期:2006
卷期:3:1
頁次:頁1-10
主題關鍵詞:大地工程風險機率評估Geotechnical engineeringRiskProbabilityEvaluation
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
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  • 點閱點閱:16
大地工程中經常利用統計機率方法進行分析,如山崩、液化、港埠基礎及環境問題等,應用的階段包括工址評選、現場調查、設計、方案評選及施工,並對各階段所承受的風險進行評估。本文首先由「機率」的定義,說明大地工程如何考慮機率,並以邊坡穩定為案例,探討如何進行機率式評估,及應用機率方法所得到的結果進一步確定風險值,最後提出未來尚待研究的課題,以供國土利用規劃參考。
The statistical probabilistic methods are used in Geotechnical Engineering such as landslide, liquefaction, port foundation, environmental problems and so on. The stages for applying probabilistic methods include site decision, field investigation, design, scheme decision and construction. Plus the bearing risks of every stage are evaluated, too. First, the purpose of this paper is to introduce how the probability can be considered in geotechnical engineering by the definition of probability. Slope stable was taken as study case. This paper probed how the probabilistic evaluation can be proceed and confirmed the risk value further according to the results gained form application of probabilistic methods. Finally, the issues required for further study were discussed. It can be for reference in geotechnical engineering practices.
期刊論文
1.Casagrande, A.(1965)。The role of 'Calculated Risk' in earthwork and foundation engineering。Journal of the Soil Mechanics and Foundations Division,91(4),1-40。  new window
2.Whitman, R. V.(2000)。Organizing and evaluating uncertainty in geotechnical engineering。Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering,125(6),583-593。  new window
3.Halim, I. S.、Tang, W. H.(1993)。Site exploration strategy for geologic anomaly characterization。J. Geotech. Engrg.,119(2),195-213。  new window
4.Nobre, M. M.、Sykes, J. F.(1992)。Application of Bayesian Kriging to subsurface characterization。Can. Geotech. J.,29(4),589-598。  new window
5.Tang, W. H.(1979)。Probabilistic evaluation of penetration resistance。J. Geotech. Engrg.,105(10),1173-1191。  new window
6.Haldar, A.、Miller, F. J.(1984)。Statistical evaluation of cyclic strength of sand。Journal of Geotechnical Engineering,110(12),1785-1802。  new window
7.Ohlmacher, G. C.、Davis, J. C.(2003)。Using multiple logistic regression and GIS technology to predict landslide hazard in northeast Kansas, USA。Engineering Geology,69,331-343。  new window
8.Oka, Y.、Wu, T. H.(1990)。System reliability of slope stability。J. Geotech. Engrg.,116(8),1185-1189。  new window
9.Low, B. K.(1997)。Reliability analysis of rock wedges。Journal of Geotechnical & Geoenvironmental Engineering,123(6),498-505。  new window
10.Park, H.、West, T. R.(2001)。Development of a probabilistic approach for rock wedge failure。Engineering Geology,59,233-251。  new window
11.Shinozuka, M.(1983)。Basic analysis of structural safety。J. of Struct. Engrg.,109(3),721-740。  new window
12.Benson, C. H.、Zhai, H.、Rashad, S.(1994)。Statistical sample size for construction of soil liners。J. Geotech. Engrg.,120(10),1704-1724。  new window
13.Phoon, K. K.、Kulhawy, F. H.(1999)。Evaluation of geotechnical property variability。Canada Geotechnical Journal,36,625-639。  new window
14.Juang, C. H.、Rosowsky, D. V.、Tang, W. H.(1999)。Reliability-based method for assessing liquefaction potential of soils。Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering,125(8),684-689。  new window
15.Haldar, A.、Tang, W. H.(1979)。Probabilistic evaluation of liquefaction potential。Journal of Geotechnical Engineering Division,105(2),145-163。  new window
16.Fell, R.(1994)。Landslide risk assessment and acceptable risk。Can. Geotech. J.,31(2),261-272。  new window
17.Elton, D. J.、Tarik, H. H.(1990)。Liquefaction potential map for Charleston, South Carolina。Journal of Geotechnical Engineering,116(2),244-265。  new window
18.Duncan, J. M.(2000)。Factors of safety and reliability in geotechnical engineering。Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering,126(4),307-315。  new window
19.張吉佐、方仲欣(19950900)。水送填土造地之探討。地工技術,51,5-20。  延伸查詢new window
20.簡連貴(19950900)。水力抽砂回填技術在造地工程之應用。地工技術,51,21-34。  延伸查詢new window
21.潘少昀、黃子明(19950900)。臺塑麥寮重機械廠動力壓密地盤改良。地工技術,51,35-50。  延伸查詢new window
會議論文
1.李雅芬、紀雲曜、李德河(2005)。區域沉積土層SPT-N值變異特性分析。The 11th Conference on Current Researches in Geotechnical Engineering in Taiwan。台北。  延伸查詢new window
2.李雅芬、紀雲曜、李德河(2004)。無限邊坡破壞之機率式評估。2004岩盤工程研討會。台北。368-375。  延伸查詢new window
3.紀雲曜、李雅芬、李德河(2004)。應用巢狀分割法於邊坡些楔型破壞機率之研究。2004全國災害危機處理學術研討會。台南。(6)74-(6)83。  延伸查詢new window
4.Morgenstern, N.(1995)。Managing risk in geotechnical engineering。10th Pan-American Conference on Soil Mechanics and Foundation Engineering。Mexico City:Mexican Society of Soil Mechanics。102-126。  new window
圖書
1.Harr, M. E.(1987)。Reliability-Based Design in Civil Engineering。New York:McGraw-Hill。  new window
2.葉光毅(2003)。計畫方法論進階。新文京。  延伸查詢new window
3.Ross, Timothy J.(1997)。Fuzzy logic with engineering applications。McGraw-Hill, Inc.。  new window
 
 
 
 
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