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題名:遞延投資,加速成長與價值波動--高科技產業的價值評估
書刊名:華人前瞻研究
作者:王睦舜 引用關係黃劭彥 引用關係陳雪如 引用關係
作者(外文):Wang, Mu-sunHuang, Shaio-yanChen, Hsueh-ju
出版日期:2005
卷期:1:1
頁次:頁123-146
主題關鍵詞:加速成長選擇權遞延投資科技評價實質選擇權Real optionStrategic flexibilityAbandonDeferral investing
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
相關次數:
  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(0) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:0
  • 共同引用共同引用:16
  • 點閱點閱:22
高科技產業需要承受較一般產業更多的不確定性,因此在企業評價上,保持彈性是此類產業評價的重點。近來運用實質選擇權評價法進行決策分析,一直都停留在理論模式推導上,本研究從個案角度觀察高科技業可能常有的「策略彈性」,進而套用這些企業已公開的財務資訊進行評價分析。在科技產業的策略評價中,發現多半會從事加速成長選擇權與遞延投資選擇權兩大類,而加速成長又可分為學習曲線的加速效果與資訊價值的增強效果。本研究發現,學習曲線下的加速成長策略,是科技業者只要開發出新產品或新技術後便會不計代價的往中國大陸設廠,期能及早降低單位邊際成本,賺得學習效果。同時本研究亦發現科技業者對總體資訊內涵波動度相當敏感,當資訊內涵波動度越大,他們籌資越形困難,對現金流量的支配權就越低,從而間接佐證Jensen & Fama (1986)之假說。在放棄選擇權上,本研究設定一最適價值,發現波動度越大的情況下,母公司易於拋棄投資專案。但若為不可回收投資成本的專案時,廠商會遞延投資、選擇最好的時機。
It is a very interesting issue that the valuating of Hi-tech industry how can decide the strategy about development by analyst. Real Option analysis is a important method to help whoever needs find out the movement and track of volatility on firm value. We interview many companies where have many spirits to adjust their organizing and implement more policies to charter the uncertainty from environment. We were explored different from options including expand-and-accelerated,deferral investing and abandon, their offer many experience from the firms want.
期刊論文
1.林鳴琴(2001)。資金成本與資產價格波動。經濟論文,29(4),437-459。new window  延伸查詢new window
2.Baker、Wurgler(2002)。Marketing Timing and Capital Structure。The Journal of Finance,57(1),32。  new window
3.Arnold, Tom、Henry, Stephen C.(2003)。Visualizing the Stochastic Calculus of Option Pricing with Excel and VBA?。Journal of Applied Finance,13(1),56-65。  new window
4.Alien, F.、Gale, D.(1994)。Limited Participation and the Volatility of Asset Prices。American Economic Review,84,933-955。  new window
5.Abel, A. B.、Dixit, A. K.、Eberly, J. C.、Pindyck, R. S.(1996)。Option, the Value of Capital, and Investment。The Quarterly Journal of Economics,111(3),753-777。  new window
6.Berger, Philip G.、Ofek, Eli、Swary, Itzhak(1996)。Investor Valuation of the Abandonment Option。Journal of Financial Economics,42(2),257-287。  new window
7.Bernardo, Antonio E.、Chowdhry, Bhagwan(2002)。Resources, Real option and Corporate Strategy。Journal of Financial Economics,63,211-234。  new window
8.Bernanke(1993)。Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Cyclical Investment。The Quarterly Journal of Economics,98(1),85-106。  new window
9.Boyle、Guthrie(2003)。Investment, Uncertainty and Liquidity。The Journal of Finance,58(5),2143-2166。  new window
10.Caballero, Ricardo、Pindyck(1996)。Uncertainty, Investment, and Industry Evolution。International Economic Review,,37,641-662。  new window
11.Campello(2003)。Capital Structure and Product Markets interactions: evidence from business cycles。Journal of Financial Economics,353-378。  new window
12.Cohen, Polk(2003)。The Value Spread。The Journal of Finance,58(2),609-641。  new window
13.DeAngelo、Masulis(1980)。Optional Capital Structure under Corporate & Personal taxation。Journal of Financial Economics,56,251-292。  new window
14.Delong, J. B.、Shleifer, A.、Summers, L. H.、Waldman, R. J.(1990)。Noise Traders Risk in Financial Market。Journal of Political Economy,98,703-738。  new window
15.Dow, J.、Gorton, G.(1994)。Arbitrage Chsiins。Journal of Finance,49,819-849。  new window
16.Elton, Edqin J.(1970)。Capital Rationing and External Discounting。Journal of Finance,25,573-584。  new window
17.Jovanovic, B.、MacDonald, G. M.(1994)。Competitive diffusion。Journal of Political Economy,102,1248-1280。  new window
18.Jovanovic, B.、MacDonald, G. M.(1994)。The Life Cycle of A Competitive Industry。Journal of Political Economy,102(2),322-347。  new window
19.McGrath(1997)。A Real Options Logic for Initialing Technology Positioning Investment。The Academy of Management Journal,43(2),203-214。  new window
20.Miller、Scholes(1978)。Dividends and Taxes。Journal of Financial Economics,6,338-364。  new window
21.Myers, Stewart, C.(1977)。Determeinants of Corporate borrowing。Journal of Financial Economics,6,333-364。  new window
22.Stulz, Rene(1990)。Management discretion and optimal financing policies。Journal of Financial Economics,26,3-27。  new window
23.Triantis, Alexander J.、Hodder, James E.(1990)。Valuing flexibility as a complexoption。Journal of Finance,43,549-565。  new window
24.Trigeorgis, Lenos(1993)。Real Options and interactions with Financial Flexibility。Financial Management,22(3),202-241。  new window
25.Zwiebel, Jeffrey(1996)。Dynamic Capital Structure under Managerial Entrenchment。American Economic Review,86(5),1197-1215。  new window
26.吳佩珊、鄭婉秀、邱建良、邱哲修(2002)。貨幣政策、外匯市場與股票市場間恆常與暫時波動性之研究。商管科技季刊,3(2),161-177。new window  延伸查詢new window
27.McDonald, R.、Siegel, D.(1986)。The Value of Waiting to Invest。The Quarterly Journal of Economics,101(4),707-727。  new window
28.Hardouvelis, Gikas A.(1990)。Margin requirements, volatility, and the transitory component of stock prices。American Economic Review,80(4),736-762。  new window
29.張大成、賴景昌(20000900)。BOT放棄價值的評估--以臺灣高速鐵路為例。管理學報,17(3),441-460。new window  延伸查詢new window
30.林達榮、石東立(20021100)。不確定營收下大陸壽險市場進入之決策分析--競爭者存在下實質選擇權法之應用。風險管理學報,4(2),61-86。new window  延伸查詢new window
31.Myers, Stewart C.(1984)。The Capital Structure Puzzle。Journal of Finance,39(3),574-592。  new window
32.Myers, Stewart C.、Majluf, Nicholas S.(1984)。Corporate Financing and Investment Decisions When Firms Have Information That Investor Do Not Have。Journal of Financial Economics,13(2),187-221。  new window
學位論文
1.王琛瑤(2002)。十二音列樂曲的統計分析與模型研究--以Webern和Schoenberg為例(碩士論文)。國立中山大學。  延伸查詢new window
2.陳建宏(2003)。臺灣光電產業之發展與競爭優勢(碩士論文)。國立臺灣大學國家。  延伸查詢new window
3.黃惠屏(2004)。光通訊產業投資價值之研究(碩士論文)。國立政治大學。  延伸查詢new window
圖書
1.Boer, F. Peter、陳隆麒(2001)。科技評價。臺北:華泰文化事業。  延伸查詢new window
2.Copeland、Koller、Murrin、陳隆麒等(2002)。事業評價。臺北:華泰文化事業。  延伸查詢new window
3.Copeland、Antikarov、顏錫銘(2003)。實質選擇權。臺北:華泰文化事業。  延伸查詢new window
4.Dixit、Pindyck(1994)。Investment Uncertainty。Princeton University Press。  new window
5.Trigeorgis, Lenos(1999)。Real Options and Business Strategy: applications to decision-making。Risk Publicaitons。  new window
6.Trigeorgis, Lenos(1996)。Real Options: Managerial Flexibility and Strategy in Resource Allocation。The MIT Press。  new window
圖書論文
1.Alchian, A. A.(1991)。Rent。The World of Economics。New York:W.W. Norton。  new window
 
 
 
 
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