| 期刊論文| 1. | Stock, James H.、Watson, Mark W.(2003)。How did leading indicator forecasts perform during the 2001 recession?。Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Economic Quarterly，89(3)，71-90。   | | 2. | Stock, James H.、Watson, Mark W.(2003)。Forecasting Output and Inflation: The Role of Asset Prices。Journal of Economic Literature，41(3)，788-829。 | | 3. | Estrella, Arturo(2005)。The Yield Curve and Recessions。The International Economy，19(3)，8-38。 | | 4. | Laurent, R.(1989)。Testing the spread。Economic Perspectives，13，22-34。 | | 5. | Estrella, Arturo、Hardouvelis, Gikas A.(1991)。The Term Structure as a Predictor of Real Economic Activity。The Journal of Finance，46(2)，555-576。 | | 6. | Estrella, Arturo、Mishkin, Frederic S.(1998)。Predicting U.S. Recessions: Financial Variables as Leading Indicators。Review of Economics and Statistics，80(1)，45-61。 | | 7. | Furlong, Frederick T.(1989)。The yield curve and recessions。Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Weekly Letter，1989(Mar.)。 | | 8. | Kozicki, Sharon、Tinsley, Peter A.(2005)。Permanent and transitory policy shocks in an empirical macro model with asymmetric information。Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control，29(11)，1985-2015。 | | 9. | Estrella, Arturo(2005)。Why dose the yield curve predict output and inflation?。The Economic Journal，115(505)，722-744。 | | 10. | Kozicki, Sharon、Sellon, Gordon(2005)。Longer-Term Perspectives on the Yield Curve and Monetary Policy。Economic Review，90(4)，5-33。 | 研究報告| 1. | Estrella, Arturo、Hardouvelis, Gikas(1989)。The Term Structure as a Predictor of Real Economic Activity。 | | 2. | Estrella, Arturo、Mishkin, Frederic S.(1995)。The Term Structure of Interest Rates and Its Role in Monetary Policy for the European Central Bank。 | | 3. | Bordo, Michael D.、Haubrich, Joseph G.(2004)。The Yield Curve, Recessions and The Credibility of Monetary Regime: Long Run Evidence 1875-1997。Cambridge：National Bureau of Economic Research。 | 圖書| 1. | Mishkin, Frederic S.(2004)。The Economics of Money, Banking, and Financial Markets。Addison-Wesley Publishing Company。 | 單篇論文| 1. | Baltzer, Markus，Kling, Gerhard(2005)。Predictability of Future Economic Growth and the Credibility of Different Monetary Regimes in Germany, 1870-2003，University of Tubingen。 | | 2. | Evans, Charles L.，Marshall, David(2001)。Economic Determinants of the Nominal Treasury Yield Curve，Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago。 | 圖書論文| 1. | Estrella, Arturo、Hardouvelis, Gikas(1990)。Possible roles of the yield curve in monetary analysis。Intermediate targets and indicators for monetary policy: A critical survey。New York：Federal Reserve Bank of New York。 | |