2006 年北高兩市市長與市議員選舉結果揭曉，如何正確理解這次選舉結果，並評估其對往後台灣政局與兩岸關係的影響，是本文的目的。作者的主要論點如下：第一，這是一次奇特的選舉，整個選舉過程籠罩在全國矚目的朝野政黨領袖涉入貪瀆疑雲的政治風暴，候選人有關市政建設的種種訴求不易也並未引起選民適度的關注，自難以構成影響選舉結果的重要因素，在一定程度上說明了為何北高兩市投票率雙雙創下歷史新低的紀錄。第二，不論這次選舉過程主要政黨與候選人如何使出渾身解數企圖將「區域選舉全國化」，但到最後關頭真正成為選戰成敗的關鍵因素是：北高兩市選民個人的「政治預存傾向」以及對候選人的評價。作者引用最新的全國性民調資料，討論了選民政黨認同、民族認同與統獨傾向間的微妙關係，並提出「顧全大局選民」的新概念。第三，選舉對國內政局的重要影響之一是，催化台灣提早邁向兩黨制。作者指出，台灣政局若因為這種弔詭的人為選擇錯誤而走向一個較具向心力的、溫和的、理性的兩黨政治體系，未嘗不是一件好事。最後，關於選舉對兩岸關係的影響，作者分析從2004 年立委選舉或2005 年縣市長選舉的經驗來看，選舉結果和兩岸政策之間並無清楚的因果關係，這證明兩岸關係和政策的演變自有其獨立於選舉因素之外的邏輯。2006 年的北高市長選舉也不例外。

In this essay I try to provide a more adequate understanding about the outcome of the 2006 Taipei and Kaohsiung mayoral elections and their consequences on Taiwan’s political situation and cross-straits relations. The major points are the following: first of all, the elections were peculiar because it was the national money-related scandals rather than the very proper city-related issues that dominated the whole campaign agenda, which was also a chief reason why the turnout rate was the lowest one in history. Second, no matter what campaign strategies the major political parties and candidates attempted to maneuver, the voter’s political predispositions and candidate evaluation constituted the most important factors in shaping the final results of the elections. Third, a profound consequence of these elections would be to trigger the early coming of a two-party system in Taiwan, which in turn may be beneficial to the health of Taiwan’s political system. Finally, with regard to cross-straits relations, the direct impact of the election outcome would be limited, because the interaction and policy adjustment between the two sides of the Taiwan Straits has its own inner factors.