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題名：短期列車旅運需求之類神經網路預測模式建構與評估
書刊名：運輸計劃
作者：蔡宗憲／李治綱 引用關係／魏健宏 引用關係
作者(外文)：Tsai, Tzung-hsien／Lee, Chi-kang／Wei, Chien-hung
出版日期：2006
卷期：35:4
頁次：頁475-505
主題關鍵詞：短期旅運量預測；類神經網路；預測模式比較；綜合模式；Short-term forecasting；Artificial neural networks；Model comparison；Combined model
原始連結：連回原系統網址new window
相關次數：
  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(3) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:3
  • 共同引用共同引用:21
  • 點閱點閱:28
短期列車旅運需求預測模式可以提供軌道運輸營運者短期旅運資訊，有益於短期營運規劃之設計。本研究以類神經網路為基礎，建構短期列車旅運需求預測模式，探討三個模式構建課題：模式輸入變數設計對預測績效之影響、類神經網路模式與其他方法之績效比較、綜合模式 (combined model) 對預測績效之影響。我們蒐集臺鐵實際售票紀錄來進行模式構建以及驗證，有以下發現：其一，不適當的變數選用會導致類神經網路預測績效惡化。其二，在預測績效表現上，類神經網路優於隨機模式、去季節化隨機模式以及移動平均模式，但與指數平滑法相近。其三，綜合模式績效優於個別預測模式， 惟必須挑選較佳的個別模式來建立綜合模式。
Short-term railway passenger demand forecasting can offer essential information to benefit short-term operational planning. This study constructed short-term forecasting models for railway passenger demand and discusses three modeling issues: the effects of input design on forecasting performance, validity of artificial neural networks and validity of combined models. We collected data from Taiwan Railway Administration for model construction and validation. Three findings were obtained. First, inappropriate design or use of input variables may result in unsatisfactory forecasting performance. Second, Artificial Neural Networks outperform random walk model, deseasonalized random walk model and moving average model, but have similar performance to exponential smoothing model. Third, combined models outperform individual models. However, candidates should be carefully selected for combining.
期刊論文
1.魏健宏、林士傑、李穎(20031200)。高速公路客運車輛旅行時間預測之實證評析。運輸計劃，32(4)，651-679。new window  延伸查詢new window
2.Makridakis, S.、Hibon, M.(2000)。The M3-Competition: results, conclusions and implications。International Journal of Forecasting，16(4)，451-476。  new window
3.Williams, B. N.、Hoel, L. A.(2003)。Modeling and Forecasting Vehicular Traffic Flow as a Seasonal ARIMA Process: Theoretical Basis and Empirical Results。Journal of Transportation Engineering，129，664-672。  new window
4.Ishak, S.、Alecsandru, C.(2004)。Optimizing Traffic Prediction Performance of Neural Networks under Various Topological, Input, and Traffic Conditions Setting。Journal of Transportation Engineering，130(4)，452-465。  new window
5.Makridakis, S.、Andersen, A.、Carbone, R.、Fildes, R.、Hibon, M.、Lewandowski, R.、Newton, J.、Parzen, E.、Winkler, R.(1982)。The Accuracy of Extrapolation (Time Series) Methods: Results of a Forecasting Competition。Journal of Forecasting，1(2)，111-153。  new window
6.許巧鶯、溫裕弘(19970900)。臺灣地區國際航空客運量之預測--灰色預測模式之應用。運輸計劃，26(3)，525-555。new window  延伸查詢new window
7.Kimes, Sheryl E.(2002)。Perceived Fairness of Yield Management。Cornell Hotel and Restaurant Administration Quarterly，43(1)，21-30。  new window
8.Priamuthu, S.、Ragavan, H.、Shaw, M. J.(1998)。Using feature construction to improve the performance of neural network。Management Science，44(3)，416-430。  new window
9.Hill, T.、O'Connor, M.、Remus, W.(1996)。Neural Network Models for Time Series Forecasts。Management Science，42(7)，1082-1092。  new window
10.Nam, K.、Schaefer, T.(1995)。Forecasting International Airline Passenger Traffic Using Neural Networks。Logistics and Transportation Review，31(3)，239-251。  new window
11.Grubb, H.、Mason, A.(2001)。Long Lead-time Forecasting of UK Air Passengers by Holt-Winters Methods with Damped Trend。International Journal of Forecasting，17，71-82。  new window
12.Williams, B. M.、Durvasula, P. K.、Brown, D. E.(1998)。Urban Freeway Traffic Flow Prediction: Application of Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average and Exponential Smoothing Models。Transportation Research Record，1644，132-141。  new window
13.Smith, B. L.、Williams, B. M.、Oswald, R. K.(2002)。Comparison of Parametric and Nonparametric Models for Traffic Flow Forecasting。Transportation Research, Part C: Emerging Technologies，10，303-321。  new window
14.Clark, S.(2003)。Traffic Prediction Using Multivariate Nonparametric Regression。Journal of Transportation Engineering，129(2)，161-168。  new window
15.Sfetsos, A.(2000)。A Comparison of Various Forecasting Techniques Applied to Mean Hourly Wind Speed Time Series。Renewable Energy，21，23-35。  new window
16.Smith, B. L.、Demetsky, M. J.(1994)。Short-term Traffic Flow Prediction: Neural Network Approach。Transportation Research Record，1453，98-104。  new window
17.Dharia, A.、Adeli, H.(2003)。Neural Network Model for Rapid Forecasting of Freeway Link Travel Time。Engineering Applications of Artificial Intelligence，16，607-613。  new window
18.Prudêncio, R. B. C.、Ludermir, T. B.(2004)。Meta-learning Approaches to Selecting Time Series Models。Neurocomputing，61，121-137。  new window
19.Fildes, R.、Hibon, M.、Makridakis, S.、Meade, N.(1998)。Generalising about Univariate Methods: Further Empirical Evidence。International Journal of Forecasting，14，339-358。  new window
20.Shah, C.(1997)。Model Selection in Univariate Time Series Forecasting Using Discriminant Analysis。International Journal of Forecasting，13，489-500。  new window
21.Adya, M.、Collopy, F.(1998)。How Effective Are Neural Networks at Forecasting and Prediction? A Review and Evaluation。Journal of Forecasting，17，481-495。  new window
22.Ledoux, C.(1997)。An Urban Traffic Flow Model Integrating Neural Networks。Transportation Research, Part C: Emerging Technologies，5(5)，287-300。  new window
23.Faraway, J.、Chatfield, C.(1998)。Time Series Forecasting with Neural Networks: A Comparative Study Using the Airline Data。Applied Statistics，47(2)，231-250。  new window
24.Lachtermacher, G.、Fuller, J. D.(1995)。Backpropagation in Time-series Forecasting。Journal of Forecasting，14，381-393。  new window
25.Zhang, H. M.(2000)。Recursive Prediction of Traffic Conditions with Neural Network Models。Journal of Transportation Engineering，126，472-481。  new window
26.Ishak, S.、Kotha, P.、Alecsandru, C.(2003)。Optimization of Dynamic Neural Networks Performance for Short-term Traffic Prediction。Transportation Research Record，1836，45-56。  new window
27.Vlahogianni, E. I.、Golias, J. C.、Karlaftis, M. G.(2004)。Short-term Traffic Forecasting: Overview of Objectives and Methods。Transport Reviews，24(5)，533-557。  new window
28.Fildes, R.、Lusk, E. J.(1984)。The Choice of a Forecasting Model。Omega: The International Journal of Management Science，12(5)，427-435。  new window
29.Liu, L.-M.、Bhattacharyya, S.、Sclove, S. L.、Chen, R.、Lattyak, W. J.(2001)。Data Mining on Time Series: An Illustration Using Fast-food Restaurant Franchise Data。Computational Statistics & Data Analysis，37(4)，455-476。  new window
30.Kumar, U. A.(2005)。Comparison of Neural Network and Regression Analysis: A New Insight。Expert Systems with Applications，29，424-430。  new window
31.Dougherty, M. S.、Cobbett, M. R.(1997)。Short-term Inter-urban Traffic Forecasts Using Neural Networks。International Journal of Forecasting，13(1)，21-31。  new window
32.Tsai, T. H.、Lee, C. K.、Wei, C. H.(2003)。An Artificial Neural Networks Approach to Forecast Short-term Railway Passenger Demand。Journal of the East Asia Society for Transportation Studies，4，221-235。  new window
33.Ku, C-C.、Lee, K. Y.(1995)。Diagonal Recurrent Neural Networks for Dynamic Systems Control。IEEE Transactions on Neural Networks，6(1)，144-156。  new window
34.Hibon, M.、Evgeniou, T.(2005)。To Combine or Not to Combine: Selecting among Forecasts and Their Combinations。International Journal of Forecasting，21，15-24。  new window
35.Fildes, R.(1992)。The Evaluation of Extrapolative Forecasting Methods。International Journal of Forecasting，8，81-98。  new window
會議論文
1.Lingras, P.、Mountford, P.(2001)。Time Delay Neural Networks Designed Using Genetic Algorithms for Short Term Inter-city Traffic Forecasting。IEA/AIE 2001 14th International Conference on Industrial and Engineering Applications of Artificial Intelligence and Expert Systems，290-299。  new window
學位論文
1.Lee, Anthony-Owen(1990)。Airline Reservations Forecasting: Probabilistic and Statistical Models of the Booking Process(博士論文)。MIT。  new window
圖書
1.Bazaraa, M. S.、Sherali, H. D.、Shetty, C. M.(1993)。Nonlinear Programming: Theory and Algorithms。New York, NY：John Wiley & Sons, Inc.。  new window
2.Delurgio, S. A.(1998)。Forecasting Principles and Applications。New York：McGraw-Hill。  new window
3.Makridakis, S.、Wheelwright, S. C.、Hyndman, R. J.(1998)。Forecasting Methods and Applications。New York：John Wiley & Sons。  new window
4.Haykin, S.(1999)。Neural Networks: A Comprehensive Foundation。Englewood, New Jersey：Prentice-Hall。  new window
5.Armstrong, J. S.(2001)。Principles of Forecasting。Principles of Forecasting。Boston, MA。  new window
6.Chatfield, C.(2000)。Time Series Forecasting。Chapman & Hall/ CRC。  new window
7.Rousseeuw, P. J.、Leroy, A. M.(1987)。Robust Regression & Outlier Detection。John Wiely & Sons。  new window
圖書論文
1.Sun, X.、Brauner, E.、Hormby, S.(1997)。A Large Scale Neural Network for Airline Forecasting in Revenue Management。Operations Research in the Airline Industry。Boston, MA：Kluwer Academic Publishers。  new window
 
 
 
 
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