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題名:Was It a Wild Card or Just Our Blindness to Gradual Change?
書刊名:Journal of Futures Studies
作者:Hiltunen, Elina
出版日期:2006
卷期:11:2
頁次:頁61-74
主題關鍵詞:FutureGradual changeWild cardsWeak signalsEarly warning signalsEmerging issues
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
相關次數:
  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(3) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:3
  • 共同引用共同引用:9
  • 點閱點閱:55
This paper examines the different definitions of the term wild card. Most often the wild card is defined as a surprising event that has significant consequences. In the literature the examples labelled as wild cards do not always meet this definition. I have divided changes into two categories according to the rapidity of the change taking place: wild cards and gradual changes. By looking at the examples of wild cards in the literature, I found that a large number of them are actually gradual changes. This paper also clarifies the difference between wild cards and weak signals, which are sometimes considered synonymous. Weak signals are a means of avoiding blindness to gradual changes and wild cards in advance.
期刊論文
1.Molitor, Graham T. T.(20030800)。Molitor Forecasting Model: Key Dimensions for Plotting the "Patterns of Change"。Journal of Futures Studies,8(1),61-71。new window  new window
2.Barber, Marcus(20060800)。Wildcards--Signals from a Future Near You。Journal of Futures Studies,11(1),75-93。new window  new window
3.Ansoff, H. I.(1975)。Managing strategic surprise by response to weak signals。California Management Review,18(2),21-33。  new window
4.Ilmola, Leena、Kuusi, Osmo(2006)。Filters of weak signals hinder foresight: Monitoring weak signals efficiently in corporate decision-making。Futures,38(8),908-924。  new window
5.Mendonça, Sandro、e Cunha Miguel P.、Kaivo-oja, Jari、Ruff, Frank(2004)。Wild Cards, Weak Signals and Organizational Improvisation。Wild Futures,36,201-218。  new window
6.Cornish, Edward(2003)。The Wild Cards in our Future。The Futurist,37,18-22。  new window
7.van Notten, Ph.W.F.、Sleegers, A. M.、van Asselt, M. B. A.(2005)。The Future chocks: On Disontinuity and Scenario Development。Technological Forecasting and Social Change,72,175-194。  new window
8.Rockfellow, John(1994)。Wild Cards: Preparing for the Big One。The Futurist,1,14-19。  new window
9.Dator, Jim(2005)。Universities without 'Quality' and Quality without 'Universities'。On the Horizon,13(4),199-215。  new window
10.Day, George S.、Schoemaker, Paul J. H.(2005)。Scanning the Periphery。Harvard Business Review,83(11),135-140+142+144-148。  new window
學位論文
1.Webb, John, R.(1987)。An evaluation of igor ansoff's theory of weak signal management by means of an investigation and forecast of future developments in the ophthalmic laser environment,Glasgow。  new window
圖書
1.Petersen, John L.(1999)。Out of the Blue - How to Anticipate Big Future Surprises。Lanham:Madison Books。  new window
2.Ansoff, H. Igor(1984)。Implanting Strategic Management。Prentice Hall International LTD。  new window
3.Godet, Michael(1993)。From Anticipation to Action-A Handbook for Strategic Prospective。France。  new window
4.Mannermaa, Mika(1999)。Tulevaisuuden Hallinta - Skenaariot Strategiatyöskentelyssä。Porvoo。  new window
5.Mannermaa, Mika(2004)。Heikoista Signaaleista Vahva Tulevaisuus。Porvoo。  new window
6.May, Graham(1996)。The Future is Ours: Foreseeing, Managing and Creating the Future。  new window
7.Åber, Leif(1989)。Viestintä-tuloksen Tekijä。Helsinki。  new window
其他
1.Coffman, Brian(1997)。'Weak Signal® Research, Part I: Introduction。  new window
2.Coffman, Brian(1997)。Weak Signal® Research, Part IV: Evolution and Growth of the Weak Signal to Maturity。  new window
3.Steinméller, Karlheinz(2004)。Wild Cards - Using Wild cards in Influencing Change。  new window
4.Dator, Jim(2050)。What Futures Studies is, and is Not。  new window
5.Dewar, James A.(2020)。The Importance of 'Wild Card' Scenarios。  new window
6.Futurist.com。  new window
圖書論文
1.Dator, James. A.(1996)。Futures studies as applied knowledge。New Thinking for a New Millennium。London:Routlegde。  new window
 
 
 
 
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