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引文資料
題名:
Was It a Wild Card or Just Our Blindness to Gradual Change?
書刊名:
Journal of Futures Studies
作者:
Hiltunen, Elina
出版日期:
2006
卷期:
11:2
頁次:
頁61-74
主題關鍵詞:
Future
;
Gradual change
;
Wild cards
;
Weak signals
;
Early warning signals
;
Emerging issues
原始連結:
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相關次數:
被引用次數:期刊(
3
) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
排除自我引用:
3
共同引用:
9
點閱:55
This paper examines the different definitions of the term wild card. Most often the wild card is defined as a surprising event that has significant consequences. In the literature the examples labelled as wild cards do not always meet this definition. I have divided changes into two categories according to the rapidity of the change taking place: wild cards and gradual changes. By looking at the examples of wild cards in the literature, I found that a large number of them are actually gradual changes. This paper also clarifies the difference between wild cards and weak signals, which are sometimes considered synonymous. Weak signals are a means of avoiding blindness to gradual changes and wild cards in advance.
以文找文
期刊論文
1.
Molitor, Graham T. T.(20030800)。Molitor Forecasting Model: Key Dimensions for Plotting the "Patterns of Change"。Journal of Futures Studies,8(1),61-71。
2.
Barber, Marcus(20060800)。Wildcards--Signals from a Future Near You。Journal of Futures Studies,11(1),75-93。
3.
Ansoff, H. I.(1975)。Managing strategic surprise by response to weak signals。California Management Review,18(2),21-33。
4.
Ilmola, Leena、Kuusi, Osmo(2006)。Filters of weak signals hinder foresight: Monitoring weak signals efficiently in corporate decision-making。Futures,38(8),908-924。
5.
Mendonça, Sandro、e Cunha Miguel P.、Kaivo-oja, Jari、Ruff, Frank(2004)。Wild Cards, Weak Signals and Organizational Improvisation。Wild Futures,36,201-218。
6.
Cornish, Edward(2003)。The Wild Cards in our Future。The Futurist,37,18-22。
7.
van Notten, Ph.W.F.、Sleegers, A. M.、van Asselt, M. B. A.(2005)。The Future chocks: On Disontinuity and Scenario Development。Technological Forecasting and Social Change,72,175-194。
8.
Rockfellow, John(1994)。Wild Cards: Preparing for the Big One。The Futurist,1,14-19。
9.
Dator, Jim(2005)。Universities without 'Quality' and Quality without 'Universities'。On the Horizon,13(4),199-215。
10.
Day, George S.、Schoemaker, Paul J. H.(2005)。Scanning the Periphery。Harvard Business Review,83(11),135-140+142+144-148。
學位論文
1.
Webb, John, R.(1987)。An evaluation of igor ansoff's theory of weak signal management by means of an investigation and forecast of future developments in the ophthalmic laser environment,Glasgow。
圖書
1.
Petersen, John L.(1999)。Out of the Blue - How to Anticipate Big Future Surprises。Lanham:Madison Books。
2.
Ansoff, H. Igor(1984)。Implanting Strategic Management。Prentice Hall International LTD。
3.
Godet, Michael(1993)。From Anticipation to Action-A Handbook for Strategic Prospective。France。
4.
Mannermaa, Mika(1999)。Tulevaisuuden Hallinta - Skenaariot Strategiatyöskentelyssä。Porvoo。
5.
Mannermaa, Mika(2004)。Heikoista Signaaleista Vahva Tulevaisuus。Porvoo。
6.
May, Graham(1996)。The Future is Ours: Foreseeing, Managing and Creating the Future。
7.
Åber, Leif(1989)。Viestintä-tuloksen Tekijä。Helsinki。
其他
1.
Coffman, Brian(1997)。'Weak Signal® Research, Part I: Introduction。
2.
Coffman, Brian(1997)。Weak Signal® Research, Part IV: Evolution and Growth of the Weak Signal to Maturity。
3.
Steinméller, Karlheinz(2004)。Wild Cards - Using Wild cards in Influencing Change。
4.
Dator, Jim(2050)。What Futures Studies is, and is Not。
5.
Dewar, James A.(2020)。The Importance of 'Wild Card' Scenarios。
6.
Futurist.com。
圖書論文
1.
Dator, James. A.(1996)。Futures studies as applied knowledge。New Thinking for a New Millennium。London:Routlegde。
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