本研究在探討2006年杜哈亞運7人制橄欖球錦標賽之勝負關鍵因素之預測，以大會所統計的11項攻防技術項目做為研究資料，運用共同因素分析、羅吉斯迴歸來進行統計分析。研究發現11項攻防技術可聚成「團隊攻防行為」、「團隊二次進攻行為」、「正集團攻擊行為」、「團隊自由意識行為」等四項因素；透過二元羅吉斯模型，選入「團隊攻防行為(X1)」與「團隊自由意識行為(X4)」進入模型，其預測值的增加能提昇贏球的勝算；利用相對觀念對勝負隊預測的因素構面依序為「團隊攻防行為(X1)」；「團隊自由意識行為(X4)」；「團隊二次進攻行為(X2)」；「正集團攻擊行為(X3)」，正確性達93.8%；並能有效精準預測持球百分比、達陣、達陣射門、不成功擒抱、勒克、成功擒抱、踢球等變項技術為影響勝負之關鍵戰力。

This study aims to explore predictions of key factors in playing strategy for winning a rugby sevens games at the 2006 Doha Asian Games. The material for study is the 11 defense and offense techniques published by the Games organizers, analyzed through communality factor analysis and logistic regression analysis. It is found that the 11 defense and offense techniques can be clustered into four factors: "team defensive and offensive behavior", "team second defensive and offensive behavior", "frontal group offensive behavior" and "team free will behavior". With logistic regression model of two elements, "team defensive and offensive behavior (X1)" and "team free will behavior (X4)" have been picked for the model, and increase of their predicted value could increase winning odds. The factors predicted for winning teams are, in their order of importance, "team defensive and offensive behavior (X1)", "team free will behavior (X4)", "team second defensive and offensive behavior (X2)", and "frontal group offensive behavior (X3)" with certainty of 93.8%. Precise predictions can also be made for identifying the following techniques as key factors that affect winning: percentage of possession, touch down, touch down kick, unsuccessful tackle, lock, successful tackle and kick.