The Implications of U.S. Nuclear Strategy for Taiwan's Security__臺灣人文及社會科學引文索引資料庫

:::

詳目顯示

第 1 筆 / 總合 1 筆

/1頁

來源文獻資料
摘要
外文摘要
引文資料

題名：	The Implications of U.S. Nuclear Strategy for Taiwan's Security
書刊名：	東吳政治學報
作者：	林泰和
作者(外文)：	Lin, Taiho
出版日期：	2007
卷期：	25:2
頁次：	頁123-177
主題關鍵詞：	臺灣安全；三角關係；戰略模糊；核子態勢評估；核戰略；Taiwan's security；Triangular relations；Strategic ambiguity；NPR；Nuclear strategy
原始連結：	連回原系統網址
相關次數：	被引用次數:期刊(0) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0) 排除自我引用:0 共同引用:4 點閱:33

本文探討美國未來核戰略對中國與台灣安全的影響。作者揚棄傳統「核子嚇阻」的觀念，而發展出一套分析架構對2001年美國「核子態勢評估」加以分析，這份報告將是未來美國核子武力與核戰略的指導方針。美國「核子態勢評估」中主要包含攻擊的武器系統、飛彈防禦系統以及加強的核武基礎設施，這三大要素構成所謂新核武三元，取代傳統以陸基洲際飛彈、潛射洲際飛彈及戰略轟炸機所構成的舊核武三元。這種新戰略規劃的確使美國擁有更廣泛的軍事選項及更大的作戰彈性；但同時亦會引發核子風險。這種風險可能來自美中雙方的軍備競賽，危機不穩定性與先制攻擊。因為任何美、中兩大核武國家的戰爭，都有可能導致核子武器的使用，進而引發核子戰爭，所以只要台灣一天持續成為美中軍事衝突的引爆點，這種核武風險將對台灣國家安全有負面的影響。美方的新核戰略與美台的軍事合作將導致中國採取更強勢的防衛政策，此時台灣的安全將因為缺乏美方清楚而堅定的防衛承諾而陷入危險。作者同時解釋美方「戰略模糊」的政策為何是一種戰略的謬誤，相對的，「戰略清晰」將會使台海的戰爭，甚至是核戰更有效的避免。

以文找文

This article explores the long-term impacts of the current U.S. nuclear strategy on China and Taiwan. Instead of traditional concept of “nuclear deterrence”, the author develops a framework for analysis of the U.S. nuclear strategy based on the Nuclear Posture Review 2002, which will determine U.S. nuclear forces planning over the next five to ten years. This nuclear strategy, which is composed of the offence strike systems, missile defense systems, and refined infrastructure, does provide the United States a wide spectrum of military options and greater operational flexibility. Yet it may also incur nuclear risks that result from arms race, crisis instability, and preemption for both China and the United States. These nuclear risks would have negative implications for Taiwan’s national security insofar as Taiwan remains a flashpoint between China and the United States. While the Nuclear Posture Review 2002 and the intensification of U.S.-Taiwan military cooperation would lead China to undertake a more robust defense policy, Taiwan’s security would be endangered for lack of clear and firm defense commitment from the United States. The author explains why the U.S. policy of “strategic ambiguity” is a strategic fallacy. A war or even a nuclear war across the Taiwan Strait would be more successfully prevented by a policy of “strategic clarity.”

以文找文

期刊論文
1.	Roy, Denny(2003)。China's Reaction to American Predominance。Survival，45(3)，57-78。
2.	Ikle, Fred Charles(1996)。The Second Coming of the Nuclear Age。Foreign Affairs，75(1)，119-128。
3.	Glaser, Charles L.、Fetter, Steve(2001)。National Missile Defense and the Future of U.S. Nuclear Weapon Policy。International Security，26(1)，40-92。
4.	Schweller, Randall L.(2004)。Unanswered Threats: A Neoclassical Realist Theory of Underbalancitig。International Security，29(2)，159-201。
5.	Powell, Robert(2003)。Nuclear Deterrence Theory, Nuclear Proliferation, and National Missile Defense。International Security，27(4)，86-118。
6.	Wachman, Alan M.(20020300)。Credibility and the U.S. Defense of Taiwan: Nullifying the Notion of a "Taiwan Threat"。Issues & Studies，38(1)，200-229。
7.	Christensen, Thomas J.(2001)。Posing Problems without Catching Up: China's Rise and Challenges for U.S. Security Policy。International Security，25(4)，5-40。
8.	Leiber, Keir A.、Press, Dary G.(2006)。The End of MAD? The Nuclear Dimension of U.S. Primacy。International Security，30(4)，7-44。
9.	Betts, Richard K.、Christensen, Thomas J.(2000)。China: Getting the Questions Right。The National Interest，62(winter)，17-29。
10.	Fang, Hsu-hsiung(2004)。The Transformation of U.S.-Taiwan Military Relations。Orbis，48(3)，551-561。
11.	Goldstein, Steven M.(2002)。The Taiwan Strait: A Continuing Status Quo of Deadlock?。Cambridge Review of International Affairs，15(1)，85-94。
12.	Whiting, Allen S.(2001)。China's Use of Force, 1950-96, and Taiwan。International Security，26(2)，103-131。
13.	Snyder, Glenn H.(1984)。The Security Dilemma in Alliance Politics。World Politics，36(4)，461-495。
14.	陳文賢(20031200)。The Triangular Relations between Taiwan, the U.S., and China at the Turn of the New Century。Issues & Studies，39(4)，206-216。
15.	Manning, R. A.、Montaperto, R. N.、Roberts, Brad(2000)。China: The Forgotten Nuclear Power。Foreign Affairs，79(4)，53-63。
16.	Preez, Jean Du(2002)。The Impact of the Nuclear Posture Review on the International Nuclear Nonproliferation Regime。The Nonproliferation Review，9(3)，67-81。
17.	McDevitt, Michael(2000)。Beijing's Bind。The Washington Quarterly，23(3)，177-186。
18.	Perkovich, George(2003)。Bush's Nuclear Revolution: A Regime Change in Nonproliferation。Foreign Affairs，82(2)，2-8。
19.	Ward, Adam(2003)。China and America: Trouble Ahead?。Survival，45(3)，35-56。
20.	Shambaugh, David(2005)。China Engages Asia。International Security，29(3)，64-99。
21.	Dodge, Paul(2006)。Chinas Naval Strategy and Nuclear Weapons: The Risks of Intentional and Inadvertent Nuclear Escalation。Comparative Strategy，24，415-430。
22.	Johnston, Alastair Iain(1996)。China's New 'Old Thinking': The Concept of Limited Deterrence。International Security，20(3)，5-42。
23.	Dodge, Paul(2004)。Circumventing See Power: Chinese Strategies to Deter U.S. Intervention in Taiwan。Comparative Strategy，23，391-409。
24.	Kane, Thomas M.(2004)。Dragon or Dinosaur? Nuclear Weapons in a Modernizing China。Parameters，33(4)，98-113。
25.	Blair, Bruce G.(2005)。General Zhu and Chinese Nuclear Preemption。China Security，1(autumn)，15-22。
26.	Gouré, Daniel(2003)。Nuclear Deterrence, Then and Now。Policy Review，116，22-24。
27.	Butfoy, Andrew(2002)。Perpetuating U.S. Nuclear 'First-Use' into the IndefiniteFuture: Reckless Inertia or Pillar of World Order?。Contemporary Security Strategy，149-169。
28.	(2007)。Playing the Other Woman。The Economist，382(January)，53-54。
29.	McDevitt, Michael(2004)。The Security Situation across the Taiwan Strait: Challenges and Opportunities。Journal of Contemporary China，13(40)，411-426。
30.	Bracken, Paul(2003)。The Structure of the Second Nuclear Age。Orbis，47(3)，399-413。
31.	林泰和(2004)。Toward a Nuclear Peace in East Asia: Facing North Korea's Nuclear Reality。Journal of East Asian Affairs，18(1)，49-77。
32.	Goldstein, Lyle J.(2003)。When China Was a 'Rouge State': The Impact of China's Nuclear Weapons Program on U.S.-China Relations during the 1960。Journal of Contemporary China，12(37)，739-765。

學位論文
1.	Lübkemeier, Eckhard(1989)。Extended Deterrence: The American Nuclear Commitment to the Federal Republic of Germany，0。

圖書
1.	Department of Defense(2006)。Annual Report on the Military Power of the People's Republic of China。Washington, DC：Department of Defense。
2.	Kilgour, D. M.、Zagare, Frank C.(2000)。Perfect Deterrence。Cambridge：Cambridge University Press。
3.	Payne, Keith B.(1996)。Deterrence: in the Second Nuclear Age。The University Press of Kentucky。
4.	Schelling, Thomas C.(1960)。The Strategy of Conflict。Cambridge, Mass：Cambridge University Press。
5.	Schelling, Thomas C.(1966)。Arms and Influence。Yale University Press。
6.	Johnston, Alastair Iain(1995)。Cultural Realism: Strategic Culture and Grand Stragtegy in Chinese History。Princeton, NJ：Princeton University Press。
7.	Baldwin, David Allen(1985)。Economic Statecraft。Princeton University Press。
8.	Shulsky, Abram N.(2000)。Deterrence Theory and Chinese Behavior。RAND Press。
9.	Brodie, Bernard(1966)。Escalation and the Nuclear Option。Escalation and the Nuclear Option。Princeton, NJ。
10.	Osgood, Robert E.、Tucker, Robert W.(1967)。Force, Order, and Justice。Force, Order, and Justice。Baltimore, MD。
11.	Bottome, Edgar(1971)。The Balance of Terror: A Guide to the Arms Race。The Balance of Terror: A Guide to the Arms Race。Boston, MA。
12.	Snyder, Glenn H.(1975)。Deterrence and Defense: Toward A Theory of National Security。Deterrence and Defense: Toward A Theory of National Security。Westport, CT。
13.	Luttwak, Edward N.(2001)。Strategy: The Logic of War and Peace。Cambridge, MA：Belknap Press of Harvard University Press。
14.	Preez, Jean Du(2002)。The U.S. Nuclear Posture Review: International Perspectives and Implications。The U.S. Nuclear Posture Review: International Perspectives and Implications。Monterey, CA。
15.	Freedman, Lawrence(2003)。The Evolution of Nuclear Strategy。The Evolution of Nuclear Strategy。New York, NY。
16.	Roberts, Brad(2004)。China's Perception of the U.S. Nuclear Threat: A Post-NPR Survey。China's Perception of the U.S. Nuclear Threat: A Post-NPR Survey。Alexandria, VA。
17.	(2005)。China's Nuclear Force Modernization。China's Nuclear Force Modernization。Rhode Island, USA。
18.	(2006)。Hitting First-Preventive Force in U.S. Security Strategy。Hitting First-Preventive Force in U.S. Security Strategy。Pittsburgh, PA。
19.	Cliff, Roger(2007)。Entering the Dragon's Lair - Chinese Antiaccess Strategies and Their Implication for the United States。Entering the Dragon's Lair - Chinese Antiaccess Strategies and Their Implication for the United States。Santa Monica, CA。
20.	Yang, Huan(1998)。China's Strategic Nuclear Weapons。Chinese Views of Future Warfare。Washington, DC。
21.	Wu, Jianguo(1998)。Nuclear Shadows on High-Tech Warfare。Chinese Views of Future Warfare。Washington, DC。
22.	Wirtz, James J.(2000)。Beyond Bipolarity: Prospects for Nuclear Stability after the Cold War。The Absolute Weapons Revisited: Nuclear Arms and the Emerging International Order。Ann Arbor, MI。
23.	Waltz, Kenneth(2004)。Missile Defenses and the Multiplication of Nuclear Weapons。The Use of Force: Military Power and International Politics。Lanham, MD。
24.	Posen, Barry R.(2004)。The Sources of Military Doctrine。The Use of Force: Military Power and International Politics。Lanham, MD。
25.	McDonough, David(2006)。Nuclear Superiority: 'New Triad' and the Evolution of American Nuclear Strategy。Nuclear Superiority: 'New Triad' and the Evolution of American Nuclear Strategy。0。

其他
1.	Central Intelligence Agency(2001)。Foreign Missile Developments and the Ballistic Missile Threat Through 2015，http://www.cia.gov/nic/pubs/other_products/Unclassifiedballisticmissilefinal.pdf。
2.	Federation of American Scientists(19980715)。Executive Summary of the Report of the Commission to Assess the Ballistic Missile Threat to the United States，http://www. fas.org/irp/threat/missile/rumsfeld/toc.htm， 2010/02/03。
3.	Arms Control Association(2002)。Fact Sheet: Worldwide Ballistic Missile Inventories，0。
4.	The Whitehouse(2002)。National Security Strategy of the United States of America, September 2002 (NSS 2002)，0。
5.	GlobalSecurity.org(2002)。Nuclear Posture Review (Excerpts)，0。
6.	U. S. Department of Defense(2005)。Annual Report on the Military Power of the People's Republic of China，0。
7.	Lieggi, Stephanie(2005)。Going beyond the Stir: The Strategic Realities of China's No-First-Use Policy，0。
8.	Arkin, William(2006)。America's New China War Plan，0。
9.	Smith, Jack(2006)。Bush's War Plan includes the Use of Nuclear Weapons，0。
10.	The Bulletin Online(2006)。Chinese Nuclear Forces 2006: NRDC Nuclear Notebook 2006，0。
11.	Kristensen, Hans(2006)。Chinese Nuclear Forces and U.S. Nuclear War Planning，0。
12.	Bolkcom, Christopher(2006)。Conventional Forces and Nuclear Deterrence: A China Case Study, CRS Report for Congress，0。
13.	Dunn, Lewis(2006)。Foreign Perspectives on U.S. Nuclear Policy and Posture: Insights, Issues and Implications，0。
14.	U. S. Department of Defense(2006)。Quadrennial Defense Review Report (QDR) 2006，0。
15.	NATO(2007)。NATO's Positions Regarding Nuclear Non-Proliferation, Arms Control and Disarmament and Related Issues，0。
16.	The Bulletin Online(2007)。Russian Nuclear Forces 2007: NRDC Nuclear Notebook 2006，0。
17.	The Bulletin Online(2007)。U.S. Nuclear Forces 2007: NRDC Nuclear Notebook 2007，0。

圖書論文
1.	Tucker, Nancy Bernkopf(2005)。Strategic Ambiguity or Strategic Clarity?。Dangerous Strait: The U.S.-Taiwan-China Crisis。New York：Columbia University Press。

推文
推薦
引用網址
引用嵌入語法
轉寄

top

:::

相關期刊
相關論文
相關專書
相關著作
熱門點閱

1.	一觸即發或虛張聲勢：論一九九五、一九九六臺海危機
2.	小布希政府時期之美中臺三角關係的持續與變遷
3.	Field of Dreams: An Overview of the Practice and Study of Taiwan's Foreign Policy
4.	The Triangular Relations between Taiwan, the U.S., and China at the Turn of the New Century

無相關博士論文

1.	柯林頓及布希政府的中、臺政策 : 決策小組的研究途徑

無相關著作

無相關點閱

QR Code

臺灣人文及社會科學引文索引資料庫系統

詳目顯示

臺灣人文及社會科學引文索引資料庫