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題名:產出波動與目標區政策:小型開放經濟之分析
書刊名:東吳經濟商學學報
作者:陳孟甫林弘文 引用關係
作者(外文):Chen, Meng-fuLin, Hung-wen
出版日期:2008
卷期:62
頁次:頁1-22
主題關鍵詞:目標區政策產出波動蜜月效果Target zonesOutput volatilityHoneymoon effect
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
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  • 共同引用共同引用:20
  • 點閱點閱:41
穩定產出水準是政府的重要政策指標之一。本文旨在浮動匯率制度下,探討政府實施產出下限目標區政策時,產出是否會產生如Krugman(1991)所提出的「蜜月效果(honeymoon effect)」,同時也探討此一政策對匯率波動的影響。本文的結果,政府實施產出下限目標區政策是否有助於產出波動穩定,端視資本移動程度的大小以及政府從事產出干預的實施方式而定。在資本移動程度大的情況下,若政府以財政政策來干預產出,則產出下限目標區的政策反而會造成產出更不穩定,但會促使匯率更加穩定。反之,若政府以貨幣供給量的調整來干預產出,則可有效的穩定產出波動,但卻會付出加大匯率波動幅度的代價。而在資本移動程度小的情況下,不論政府採行何種干預的方式,對匯率變動之影響為不確定,但對於產出則均具有安定的效果。
Stabilizing output is one of the important policies in most countries. This paper develops an open economy model under flexible exchange rate regime, and investigates whether the honeymoon effect proposed by Krugman (1991) is present when the government adopts a target zone policy on output. We find that whether the announcement by the government to defend the output target zone will reduce the volatility of output, depends on (i) the degree of capital mobility; (ii) the implementing instruments of stabilizing policies. These new findings help to enhance our understanding of target zone policy and output volatility.
期刊論文
1.Froot, K. A.、Obstfeld, M.(1991)。Exchange rate Dynamics under Stochastic Regime Shifts: A Unified Approach。Journal of International Economics,31(3/4),203-229。  new window
2.賴景昌、、王葳、胡士文(2000)。目標區與農產品價格穩定:小型開放經濟之分析。農產經濟叢刊,6(1),33-66。new window  延伸查詢new window
3.曹添旺、陳憶萱(20020900)。國際金融衝擊對國內產出的影響。人文及社會科學集刊,14(3),329-361。new window  延伸查詢new window
4.Svensson, L. E. O.(1991)。Target Zones and Interest Rate Variability。Journal of International Economics,31,27-54。  new window
5.Flood, R. P.、Garber, P. M.(1991)。The Linkage between Speculative Attack and Target Zone Models of Exchange Rates。Quarterly Journal of Economics,106(4),1367-1372。  new window
6.方中柔、賴景昌(2002)。Targeting Nominal Income versus Targeting Price Level: A Target Zone Perspective。International Review of Economics and Finance,11(3),229-249。  new window
7.Bertola, G.、Caballero, R. J.(1992)。Target Zones and Realignments。American Economic Review,82(3),520-536。  new window
8.Fleming, J. Marcus(1962)。Domestic Financial Policies under Fixed and Floating Exchange Rates。IMF Staff Papers,9(3),369-379。  new window
9.Kempa, B.、Nelles, M.(1999)。The Theory of Exchange Rate Target Zones。Journal of Economics Surveys,13(2),173-210。  new window
10.Krugman, Paul R.(1991)。Target Zones and Exchange Rate Dynamics。Quarterly Journal of Economics,106(3),669-682。  new window
11.Lai, Ching-Chong、Chang, Juin-Jen(2001)。A Note on Inflation Targeting。Journal of Economic Education,32,369-380。  new window
12.Rogoff, Kenneth(1985)。The Optimal Degree of Commitment to An Intermediate Monetary Target。Quarterly Journal of Economics,100(4),1169-1190。  new window
13.Svensson, L. E. O.(1997)。Optimal Inflation Targets, Conservative Central Banks, and Linear Inflation Contracts。American Economic Review,87,98-114。  new window
14.Walsh, Carl E.(1995)。Optimal Contracts for Central Bankers。American Economic Review,85(1),150-167。  new window
15.侯美惠(2005)。貨幣政策、產出目標區與股價。經濟研究,第四十卷第二期,145-180。new window  延伸查詢new window
16.Delgado, F. and B. Dumas(1993)。“Monetary Contracting Between Central Banks and Design of Sustainable Exchange-Rate Zones,”。Journal of International Economics,34,no.3,201-224。  new window
17.Frankel, J. and Chinn, M.(1995)。“The stabilizing properties of a nominal GNP rule,”。Journal of Money,27,no.2,318-334。  new window
18.Koenig, E. F.,(1996)。“Targeting nominal income: A closer look,”。Economics Letters,51,89-93。  new window
19.Kyer, B. L. and G. E. Maggs(1995)。“Monetary Policy Rules, Supply Shocks, and the Price-Level Elasticity of Aggregate Demand: A Graphical Examination,”。Journal of Economic Education,26,364-372。  new window
20.McCallum, B. T. and E. Nelson(1999)。“Nominal income targeting in an open-economy optimizing model,”。Journal of Monetary Economics,43,no.2,553-578。  new window
研究報告
1.Ball, L.(1997)。Efficient Rules for Monetary Policy。  new window
學位論文
1.吳國鑫(2000)。開放經濟體系下產出目標區的安定效果。  延伸查詢new window
2.陳憶萱(1999)。國際金融衝擊之產出緊縮效果。  延伸查詢new window
圖書
1.賴景昌(1994)。國際金融理論。臺北:茂昌圖書有限公司。  延伸查詢new window
 
 
 
 
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