臺灣人文及社會科學引文索引資料庫系統

:::

詳目顯示

回上一頁
第 1 筆 / 總合 1 筆   第一頁 上一頁 下一頁 最後一頁
/1頁
題名：國際原物料價格與散裝海運運價指數之連動及其對運價指數預測之影響
書刊名：運輸學刊
作者：溫珮伶／林晉勗 引用關係／林師模 引用關係
作者(外文)：Wen, Pei-lin／Lin, Jin-xu／Lin, Shih-mo
出版日期：2008
卷期：20:4
頁次：頁351-375
主題關鍵詞：乾散裝海運市場；海運運價指數；VECM模型；運價指數預測；Dry bulk shipping market；Freight rate index；VECM；Freight rate index forecast
原始連結：連回原系統網址new window
相關次數：
  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(3) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:3
  • 共同引用共同引用:4
  • 點閱點閱:153
乾散裝海運於國際原物料之貿易上扮演了重要的角色。由於國際原物料價格的變動相當程度反映了供需的變化，而其供需的變化也直接影響了對海運之需求，並進而影響到海運運價，原物料價格與海運運價指數必存在某種連動及關聯。本文主要係基於此一考量，先以Johansen共整合檢定驗證原物料價格與散裝海運運價指數間是否存在著長期均衡之連動關係，當均衡關係存在時，接著再以向量誤差修正模型(VECM)，探討原物料價格與運價指數間的互動關係。實證結果發現，運價指數之季節性因素在此並不顯著，此外，前期原物料價格會影響後期運價指數。至於依據原物料價格與運價指數間之互動關係所進行運價指數未來走勢預測之結果，顯示運價指數之預測值與實際值之發展方向大致相同，其中又以BPI之預測更為準確，表示原物料價格對海運運價指數會有一定之影響。
Dry-bulk shipping plays a major role in moving raw materials internationally. Since the movement of the prices of raw materials shipped reflects, to a certain degree, the interactions between demand and supply for those materials which in turn impact the demand for dry-bulk shipping and freight rates, it should have a close relationship with the changes of dry-bulk shipping freight indices. Based on this argument, this paper first examines the long-term equilibrium relationships between raw material prices and dry-bulk shipping freight indices by Johansen cointegration test. With the existence of long-term equilibrium relationship, the interacting relationships between the movement of raw material prices and dry-bulk shipping freight indices are further explored by Vector Error Correct Models (VECM). The results indicated that seasonality is not significant in dry-bulk shipping freight indices. In addition, raw material prices move ahead of dry-bulk shipping freight indices. Finally, forecasts on future movements of shipping freight indices taking into account the relationship established, proved to be quite satisfactory, especially for BPI indices, indicating that the inclusion of price information of raw materials does improve the forecasting accuracy.
期刊論文
1.Hawdon, D.(1978)。Tanker freight rates in the short and long run。Applied Economics，1(10)，203-217。  new window
2.Veenstra, A. W.(1999)。The Term Structure of Ocean Freight Rates。Maritime Policy andManagement，26(3)，279-293。  new window
3.Tvedt, J.(2003)。A New Perspective on Price Dynamics of the Dry Bulk Market。Maritime Policy and Management，30(3)，221-230。  new window
4.Glen, D. R.(1997)。The Market for Second-hand Ships: Further Results on Efficiency Using Cointegration Analysis。Maritime Policy and Management，24(3)，245-260。  new window
5.Kavussanos, M. G.(1997)。The Dynamics of Time-varying Volatilities in Different Size Second-hand Ship Prices of the Dry-cargo Sector。Applied Economics，29(4)，433-443。  new window
6.Kavussanos, M. G.、Alizadeh-M, A. H.(2001)。Seasonality Patterns in Dry Bulk Shipping Spot and Time Charter Freight Rates。Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review，37(6)，443-467。  new window
7.Veenstra, A. W.、Franses, P. H.(1997)。A Co-integration Approach to Forecasting Freight Rates in the Dry Bulk Shipping Sector。Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice，31(6)，447-458。  new window
8.Kavussanos, M. G.、Nomikos, N. K.(1999)。The Forward Pricing Function of the Shipping Freight Futures Market。Journal of Futures Markets，19，353-376。  new window
9.Johansen, S.(1991)。Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegrating Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Model。Econometrica，59(6)，1551-1580。  new window
10.Fama, Eugene F.(1970)。Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work。The Journal of Finance，25(2)，383-417。  new window
11.陳永順(2005)。國際散裝乾貨船市場分析。船舶與海運通訊，18，12-29。  延伸查詢new window
12.Hale, C.、Vanags, A.(1989)。Spot and Period Rates in the Bulk Market。Journal of Transport Economics and Policy，23(3)，281-291。  new window
13.Berg-Andreassen, J. A.(1996)。Some Properties of International Maritime Statistics。Maritime Policy and Management，24(4)，381-395。  new window
14.Berg-Andreassen, J. A.(1997)。The Relation between Period and Spot Rates in International Maritime Markets。Maritime Policy and Management，24(4)，335-350。  new window
15.中央銀行(2004)。國際經濟金融情勢。中央銀行季刊，26(3)，133-151。  延伸查詢new window
16.Adland, R.、Strandenes, S. P.(2007)。A Discrete-time Partial Equilibrium Model of the Spot Freight Market。Journal of Transport Economics and Policy，41(2)，189-218。  new window
17.Tsolakis, S.、Cridland, C.、Haralambides, H.(2003)。Econometric Modeling of Second-hand Ship Prices。Maritime Economics and Logistics，5(4)，347-377。  new window
18.Nomikos, N.、Haigh, M.、Bessler, D.(2004)。Integration and Causality in International Freight Market: Modeling with Error Correction and Directed Acyclic Graphs。Southern Economic Journal，71(1)，145-163。  new window
19.Adland, R.、Jia, H.、Strandenes, S. P.(2006)。Asset Bubbles in Shipping? An Analysis of Recent History in the Drybulk Market。Maritime Economics and Logistics，8(3)，223-233。  new window
會議論文
1.United Nations Conference on Trade and Development(2001)。Review of Maritime Transport。0。  new window
學位論文
1.陳永順(2004)。價格波動與最適避險模型之研究--以散裝乾貨船市場為例(博士論文)。國立臺灣海洋大學。new window  延伸查詢new window
圖書
1.洪明君(2002)。我國海運業近況與展望。臺北市：臺灣工業銀行。  延伸查詢new window
2.林光(2003)。海運學。台北市：華泰文化事業公司。  延伸查詢new window
3.楊奕農(2005)。時間序列分析--經濟與財務上之應用。臺北：雙葉書廊有限公司。  延伸查詢new window
4.Enders, Walter(2004)。Applied Econometric Time Series。New York：John Wiley & Sons。  new window
5.Clarkson Research Studies(2006)。Shipping Intelligence Weekly。Shipping Intelligence Weekly。London, UK。  new window
6.Fearnleys(2007)。Fearnleys Review 2006。Fearnleys Review 2006。Oslo, Norway。  new window
7.Koopmans, T.(1939)。Tanker Freight Rates and Tankship Building。Tanker Freight Rates and Tankship Building。Netherlands。  new window
8.Stopford, M.(2005)。China in Transition: Its Impact on Shipping in the Last Decade and the Next。China in Transition: Its Impact on Shipping in the Last Decade and the Next。Shanghai, PRC。  new window
其他
1.Stopford, M.(2007)。Waving Market - Where to Go?，0。  new window
2.U. S. Department of Energy(2007)。World Crude Oil Prices，0。  new window
3.Tinbergen, J.(1934)。"Tonnage and Freight," De Nederlandsche Conjuncture，0。  new window
 
 
 
 
第一頁 上一頁 下一頁 最後一頁 top
:::
無相關書籍
 
無相關著作
 
QR Code
QRCODE

臺灣人文及社會科學引文索引資料庫

目前上線人數：1568（臺灣：1567，外國：1） ／ 本年度總使用人次：2196945 ／ 訪客人次（自102年09月）：67992513
國家圖書館著作權聲明 Copyright © 2013 All rights reserved.
本館地址: 100201臺北市中山南路20號． 本館地圖及交通資訊．
總機：(02)23619132．最佳瀏覽解析度為1024x768以上