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題名:中小企業之財務危機預警模型與新巴賽爾協定信用評等
書刊名:中小企業發展季刊
作者:張大成 引用關係劉美纓 引用關係萬智傑
作者(外文):Chang, Ta-chengLiu, Mei-yingWan, Chih-chieh
出版日期:2008
卷期:9
頁次:頁199-219
主題關鍵詞:中小企業財務危機預警模型信用評等新巴塞爾協定SMEsBankruptcy prediction modelBasel Ⅱ credit rating
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
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  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(2) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:2
  • 共同引用共同引用:0
  • 點閱點閱:44
  本研究採用Logit迴歸方法,以1,500家台灣中小企業為樣本,建立財務危機預警模型,檢視影響中小企業經營危機的財務與非財務變數資訊。其次,根據新巴塞爾協定之規範進行信用評等。實證結果顯示:台灣中小企業之財務預警指標為現金/總資產、存貨/銷貨收入淨額、應收帳款週轉次數、平均收帳天數及營業毛利率;非財務預警指標為銀行往來家數、公司年齡、保證人人數、額度使用率及員工人數。此外,台灣中小企業信用評等呈現集中評等兩端之雙峰分佈,而與一般大型企業單峰分佈情形不同。
  Using a sample containing financial and nonfinancial data of 1,500 Taiwan small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), we first employ the Logistic regression to develop the bankruptcy prediction model for SMEs. Then we implement the credit rating for the SMEs under the Basel II. The empirical results show that our financial predictors include cash/total assets, inventory/net sales, turnovers of account receivables, average collection period and rate of gross operating income ; the non-financial predictors include number of correspondent bank, age of firm, number of guarantor, utilization rate of credit line and number of employees. Different from the large firms, the credit rating of Taiwan SMEs exhibits a bimodal distribution.
期刊論文
1.Keasey, K.、Watson, R.(1987)。Non-Financial Symptoms and The Prediction of Small Company Failure: A Test of ARGENTIs Hypotheses。Journal of Business Finance and Accounting,14,335-354。  new window
2.Pompe, P.、Bilderbeek, J.(2005)。The Prediction of Bankruptcy of Small-and Medium-Sized Industrial Firms。Journal of Business Venturing,20(6),847-868。  new window
3.Berkson, Joseph(1944)。Application of the Logistic function to Bio-assay。Journal of the American Statistical Association,39(227),357-365。  new window
4.Beaver, W. H.(1966)。Financial Ratios as Predictors of Failure。Journal of Accounting Research,4(3),71-111。  new window
5.Ohlson, James A.(1980)。Financial Ratios and the Probabilistic Prediction of Bankruptcy。Journal of Accounting Research,18(1),109-131。  new window
6.Altman, Edward I.(1968)。Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis and the Prediction of Corporate Bankruptcy。The Journal of Finance,23(4),589-609。  new window
7.Allen, A.、DeLong, G.、Saunders, A.(2004)。Issues In the Credit Risk Modeling or Retail。Journal of Banking and Finance,28,727-752。  new window
8.Atiya, R.(2001)。Bankruptcy Prediction for Credit Risk Using Neutral Networks : A Survey and New Results。IEEE Transactions on Neutral Networks,12,929-935。  new window
9.Sobehart, J.、Keenan, S.(2001)。; Measuring Default Accurately : Credit Risk Special Report。Risk,14,31-33。  new window
10.Dietsch, M.、Petey, J.(2004)。Should SME Exposures be Treated as Retail or as Corporate Exposures? A Comparative Analysis of Default Probabilities and Asset Correlation in French and German SMEs。Journal of Banking and Finance,28,773-788。  new window
11.Hanley, A.、McNeil, B.(1982)。The Meaning and Use of the Area under a Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) Curve。Diagnostic Radiology,143,29-36。  new window
12.Huyghebaert, N.、Gaeremyhck, A.、Roodhooft, F.、Gucht, L.(2000)。New Firm Survival : The Effect of Start-up Characteristics。Journal of Business Finance and Accounting,27,627-651。  new window
13.Basel Committee on Banking Supervision,(2001)。Overview of New Basel Capital Accord。Basel Report,1-39。  new window
會議論文
1.Odom, M.、Sharda, R.(1990)。A neural networks model for bankruptcy prediction。International Joint Conference on Neural Networks。San Diego, CA。163-168。  new window
2.Bell, T.、Ribar, G.、Verchio, J.(1990)。Neutral Networks vs. Logistic Regression : A Comparison of Each Model's Ability to Predict Commercial Bank Failures。  new window
研究報告
1.Basel Committee on Banking Supervision,(2001)。The New Basel Capital Accord : An Explanatory Note。  new window
2.Kolari, J.、Shin, H.(2004)。Assessing the Profitability and Riskiness of Small Business Lenders in the US. Banking Industry。  new window
學位論文
1.胡美惠(2005)。公司財務風險防範預警模式之探討--以中部中小企業為例(碩士論文)。大葉大學。  延伸查詢new window
2.黎法寬(1997)。中小企業信用分析模式(碩士論文)。國立暨南國際大學。  延伸查詢new window
3.廖偉廷(2006)。台灣中小企業信用風險模型之研究(碩士論文)。東吳大學。  延伸查詢new window
4.李惠民(1985)。中小企業信用評估模式之研究。淡江大學。  延伸查詢new window
5.陳忠賢(2004)。中小企業信用評等模式之研究--以台北(縣)市中小企業為例。輔仁大學。  延伸查詢new window
6.葉春有(2004)。國內中小企業貸款違約預測模式之研究--以某商業銀行之授信戶為例。實踐大學。  延伸查詢new window
圖書
1.Mays, E.(1998)。Credit Risk Modeling : Design and Application。New York, NY:Glenlake Publishing Company/ AMACOM。  new window
2.經濟部中小企業處(2007)。中小企業白皮書。臺北:經濟部中小企業處。  延伸查詢new window
3.Argenti, J.(1976)。Corporate Collapse : The Cause and Symptoms。London。  new window
其他
1.Altman, E.,Sabato, G.(2005)。Modeling Credit Risk for SMEs : Evidence from the US Market,www.defaultrisk.com/pp_model133.htm。  new window
圖書論文
1.Basel Committee on Banking Supervision(1999)。A New Capital Adequacy Framework。Basel Report。  new window
 
 
 
 
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