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題名:貶值效果與經濟成長之關係:以追蹤資料檢定法驗證
書刊名:文大商管學報
作者:黃淑卿許昭民 引用關係康銘顯
作者(外文):Huang, Shu-chingHsu, Chao-minKang, Ming-hsein
出版日期:2008
卷期:13:2
頁次:頁71-88
主題關鍵詞:貶值緊縮效果追蹤資料異質共整合檢定全修正普通最小平方法動態普通最小平方法JEL分類代號: C22, E31Contractionary devaluationsHeterogeneous panel cointegration testsFull modified OLSDynamic OLSJEL classification: E32, C32
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
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根據傳統凱因斯學派的理論中,認爲一國貨幣貶值會降低本國商品的相對價格,有助於激勵國內出口的提升與增加本國產出水準;因此亞洲國家期望藉由貨幣貶值對產出水準能有擴張效果。然而最近實證文獻卻發現貨幣貶值對經濟成長率具負面影響,故本文採用較嚴謹的實證模型和計量方法驗證亞洲國家貨幣貶值是否具擴張效果。實證結果發現亞洲國家貨幣貶值對實質產出具擴張性效果。
According to the traditional theory, it is expected that depreciation in domestic currency generally decreases the relative price of domestically produced goods and thereby stimulates demand for domestic export. Hence, currency depreciation can be expected to have expansionary effects on real output in Asia. But there is now enough studies evidence that currency devaluation can lead to lower rates of economic growth. So, by using more rigorous empirical model and econometric methodology, this paper examines the effect of currency devaluation on output expansion in Asian countries. The empirical results find that depreciation exerts a positive impact on output growth is Asian countries.
期刊論文
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6.Bahmani-Oskooee, M.、Kandil, M.(2002)。Are Devaluations Contractionary in Asia?。Journal of Post Keynesian Economics,67,70-79。  new window
7.Pedroni, Peter(1999)。Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors。Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics,61(4),653-670。  new window
8.Stock, James H.、Watson, Mark W.(1993)。A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems。Econometrica,61(4),783-820。  new window
9.Phillips, P. C. B.、Hansen, B. E.(1990)。Statistical inference in instrumental variables regression with I(1) processes。Review of Economic Studies,57,99-125。  new window
10.Kao, C.、Chiang, M.-H.(2000)。On the Estimation and Inference of a Cointegrated Regression in Panel Data。Advances in Econometrics,15,179-222。  new window
11.Breusch, T. S.、Pagan, A. R.(1980)。The Lagrange Multiplier Test and its Applications to Model Specification in Econometrics。The Review of Economic Studies,47(1),239-253。  new window
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14.Kandil, M.、Mirzaie, A.(2002)。Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Disaggregated, Economic Activity in the US: Theory and Evidence。Journal of International Money and Finance,21,1-31。  new window
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20.Christopoulos, D. K.(2004)。Currency Devaluation and Output Growth: New Evidence from Panel Data Analysis。Applied Economics Letters,11(13),809-813。  new window
研究報告
1.Kandil, M.(2000)。The Asymmetric Effects of Exchange Rate Fluctuations: Theory and Evidence from Developing Countries。  new window
2.Pedroni, P.(199704)。Panel Cointegration: Asymptotic and Finite Sample Properties of Pooled Time Series Tests with an Application to the PPP Hypothesis: New Results。Indiana University。  new window
 
 
 
 
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