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題名:臺灣白肉雞產地價格之灰預測模型研究
書刊名:農業與經濟
作者:施孟隆 引用關係黃炳文 引用關係胡惟喻馮誠萬
作者(外文):Shih, Meng-longHuang, Biing-wenHu, Wei-yuFeng, Cheng-wan
出版日期:2008
卷期:41
頁次:頁111-133
主題關鍵詞:白肉雞產地價格灰預測BroilerFarm priceGrey prediction
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
相關次數:
  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(0) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:0
  • 共同引用共同引用:12
  • 點閱點閱:40
本研究根據灰預測的方法,利用相關變數的原始資料,建構適合白肉雞產地價格之灰預測模型(grey prediction models, GM)GM(1, N)預測模型,並分析相關之影響因素。其結果顯示以GM(1, 1)模型來預測,價格資訊運用的最佳筆數爲八筆;而以GM(1, N)模型中之GM(1, 6)模型來預測準確度可達95.26%,表示白肉雞產地價格適合以此推估模式進行預測,並可獲得精確的預測結果,故本研究結果可提供農政單位在價格預警及產業輔導的基礎,與業者作爲調整出雞及入雞時間決策的參考依據。
This study, based on the grey prediction methodology, builds up the GM (1, N) prediction model for broiler farm price and used the primary data of related variables to analyze related affecting factors. The result shows that the count for the application of price information to get best GM (1, 1) model is 8 periods. In the GM (1, N) model, the result indicates that the GM (1, 6) model is suitable for the farm price prediction of broiler. Therefore, this implies that the result of this study could provide the price information basis for consulting measure decisions, such as price warning, of related agricultural authorities and production decisions, such as the suitable time to buy chick and sell out broiler, of farmers.
期刊論文
1.施東河、徐桂祥(19990100)。臺灣地區壽險需求量之研究與預測。管理與系統,6(1),29-46。new window  延伸查詢new window
2.Aradhyula, Satheesh V.、Holt, Matthew T.(1998)。Endogenous Risk in Rational-Expectations Commodity Models: A Multivariate Generalized ARCH-M Approach。Journal of Empirical Finance,5,99-129。  new window
3.彭克仲(20010600)。灰色預測應用於臺灣地區鳳梨零售價格預測之研究。農業經濟半年刊,69,107-127。new window  延伸查詢new window
4.李宗儒、鄭卉方(20000600)。應用灰色理論預測農作物之價格--以紅豆為例。農林學報,49(2),83-92。  延伸查詢new window
5.Hsu, L. C.(2003)。Applying the Grey Prediction Model to the Global Integrated Circuit Industry。Technological Forecasting and Social Change,70(6),563-574。  new window
6.Akay, D.、Atak, M.(2007)。Grey Prediction with Rolling Mechanism for Electricity Demand Forecasting of Turkey。Energy,32,1670-1675。  new window
7.Chiang, J. Y.、Chen, C. K.(2008)。Application of Grey Prediction to Inverse Nonlinear Heat Conduction Problem。International Journal of Heat and Mass Transfer,51,576-585。  new window
8.Wu, W. Y.、Chen, S. P.(2005)。A Prediction Method Using the Grey Model GMC (1, n) Combined with the Grey Relational Analysis: A Case Study on Internet Access Population Forecast。Applied Mathematics and Computation,169,198-217。  new window
9.Kung, L. M.、Yu, S. W.(2008)。Prediction of Index Futures Returns and the Analysis of Financial Spillovers - A Comparison between GARCH and the Grey Theorem。European Journal of Operational Research,186,1184-1200。  new window
10.Holt, M. T.、Aradhyula, S. V.(1990)。Price Risk in Supply Equation: An Application of GARCH Time-series Models to the U.S. Broiler Market。Southern Economic Journal,57(1),230-242。  new window
會議論文
1.施能仁、劉定焜(1997)。灰色系統下指數期貨之避險策略評估研究-發行量加權指數與指數期貨之應用。高雄。16-33。  延伸查詢new window
學位論文
1.楊淑芬(1994)。農產品市場決價制度與市場資訊效率之研究-毛豬與肉雞市場之比較,0。  延伸查詢new window
2.吳懿德(1997)。臺灣肉雞產地價格時間數列之預測分析,0。  延伸查詢new window
圖書
1.鄧聚龍(1999)。灰色系統理論與應用。台北市:高立圖書有限公司。  延伸查詢new window
 
 
 
 
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