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引文資料
題名:
Do the Chinese Bourses (Stock Markets) Predict Economic Growth?
書刊名:
International Journal of Business and Economics
作者:
Jarrett, Jeffrey E.
/
Pan, Xia
/
Chen, Shaw
出版日期:
2009
卷期:
8:3
頁次:
頁201-211
主題關鍵詞:
Granger causality
;
Geweke linear dependence
;
Likelihood ratio tests
;
Vector autoregression
原始連結:
連回原系統網址
相關次數:
被引用次數:期刊(
1
) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
排除自我引用:
1
共同引用:0
點閱:10
Abstract We study the relationship between the Chinese macroeconomy and the Chinese stock markets, i.e., the bourses in Shanghai and Shenzhen. With this goal, we utilize multiple Granger causality and Geweke linear dependence and examine likelihood ratio statistics between two sectors of the Chinese economy: the Chinese economic prosperity score (EPS)—and its departure from a "healthy level" (EPS-D)—and composite indexes for Chinese securities markets—Shanghai composite (SH) and Shenzhen composite (SZ). The data cover nine years. The authors found no evidence that SH and SZ Granger cause economic prosperity. The evidence supports the notions that Chinese stock markets respond greater to changes in EPS-D than to EPS and that the SZ is more sensitive to changes in the economy than the SH.
以文找文
期刊論文
1.
Cheung, Yin-Wong、Ng, Lilian Kheng(1998)。International Evidence on the Stock Market and Aggregate Economic Activity。Journal of Empirical Finance,5(3),281-296。
2.
Toda, H. Y.、Phillips, P. C. B.(1994)。Vector Autoregression and Causality : A Theoretical Overview and Simulation Study。Econometric Reviews,13,259-285。
3.
Fama, Eugene F.、Schwert, G. William(1977)。Asset Returns and Inflation。Journal of Financial Economics,5(2),115-146。
4.
Geweke, J.、Meese, R.、Dent, W.(1983)。Comparing Alternative Tests of Causality in Temporal Systems: Analytic Results and Experimental Evidence。Journal of Econometrics,21(2),161-194。
5.
Fama, Eugene F.(19911200)。Efficient Capital Markets。Journal of Finance,46(5),1575-1617。
6.
Su, D.、Fleisher, B. M.(1999)。Why Does Return Volatility Differ in Chinese Stock Markets?。Pacific-Basin Finance Journal,7(5),557-586。
7.
Granger, Clive W. J.(1969)。Investigating causal relations by econometric models and cross-spectral methods。Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society,37(3),424-438。
8.
Eun, Cheol S.、Huang, Wei(2007)。Asset pricing in China's domestic stock markets: Is there a logic?。Pacific-Basin Finance Journal,15(5),452-480。
9.
Wang, J.、Burton, B. M.、Power, D. M.(2004)。Analysis of the Overreaction Effect in the Chinese Stock Market。Applied Economics Letters,11(7),437-442。
10.
Fama, E. F.(1990)。Stock Returns, Expected Returns, and Real Activity。The Journal of Finance,45(4),1089-1108。
11.
Dufour, J-M.、Pelletier, D.、Renault, E.(2006)。Short Run and Long Run Causality in Time Series: Inference。Journal of Econometrics,132(2),337-362。
12.
Felsenstein, J.(1981)。Evolutionary Trees from DNA Sequences: A Maximum Likelihood Approach。Journal of Molecular Evolution,17(6),368-376。
13.
Huelsenbeck, J. P.、Crandall, K. A.(1997)。Phylogeny Estimation and Hypothesis Testing Using Maximum Likelihood。Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics,28,437-466。
14.
Huelsenbeck, J. P.、Rannala, B.(1997)。Phylogenetic Methods Come of Age: Testing Hypotheses in an Evolutionary Context。Science,276,227-232。
15.
Kishino, H.、Hasegawa, M.(1990)。Converting Distance to Time: Application to Human Evolution。Methods Enzymol,183,550-570。
16.
Lemmens, A.、Croux, C.、Dekimpe, M. G.(2008)。Measuring and Testing Granger Causality over the Spectrum: An Application to European Production Expectation Surveys。International Journal of Forecasting,24(3),414-431。
17.
Liang, Q.、Teng, J. Z.(2006)。Financial Development and Economic Growth: Evidence from China。China Economic Review,17(4),395-411。
18.
Ng, L.、Wu, F.(2007)。The Trading Behavior of Institutions and Individuals in Chinese Equity Markets。Journal of Banking and Finance,31(9),2695-2710。
19.
Pan, X.(2007)。The Linear Dependence and Feedback Spectra between Stock Market and Economy。International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance,10(3),437-447。
20.
Shimodaira, H.、Hasegawa, M.(1999)。Multiple Comparisons of Log-Likelihoods with Applications to Phylogenetic Inference。Molecular Biology and Evolution,16,1114-1116。
21.
Gao, S.(2002)。China Stock Market in a Global Perspective。Dow Jones Indexes,1-48。
22.
Wei, K.、Wong, K.,(1992)。Tests of Inflation and Industry Portfolio Stock Returns。Journal of Economics and Business,44(1),77-94。
會議論文
1.
Barnett, W. A.、Geweke, J.、Shell, K.(1989)。Economic Complexity: Chaos, Sunspots, Bubbles, and Nonlinearity。England。
圖書
1.
Thomas, William Arthur(2001)。Western Capitalism in China: A History of the Shanghai Stock Exchange。Aldershot。
2.
Chan, N. H.(2002)。Time Series: Applications to Finance。New York, NY。
3.
O'Donovan, T. M.(1983)。Short Term Forecasting: Introduction to the Box-Jenkins Approach。Chichester。
4.
Zhong, R, S.、Gu, L.、Lui, C. B.(1999)。The Empirical Statistical Analysis of Chinese Stock Markets。Beijing。
5.
Geweke, J.(1984)。Inference and Causality in Econometric Time Series Models。Handbook of Econometrics。Amsterdam。
6.
Swofford, D. L.、Olsen, G. J.、Waddell, P. J.、Hillis, D. M.(1996)。Phylogenetic Inference。Molecular Systematic。Sunderland, MA。
7.
Su, D.(1998)。The Behavior of Chinese Stock Markets。Emerging Capital Markets。Westport CT。
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