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題名:動態旅次起迄需求推估方法之研究:流量模擬法
書刊名:運輸計劃
作者:胡大瀛 引用關係何偉銘
作者(外文):Hu, Ta-yinHo, Wei-ming
出版日期:2009
卷期:38:3
頁次:頁247-273
主題關鍵詞:非指派模式流量模擬依時性旅次起迄Non-assignment based modelFlow simulationTime-dependent O-D
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
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  • 共同引用共同引用:2
  • 點閱點閱:47
依時性旅次起迄資料是先進交通管理系統(ATMS)中動態交通指派的重要資料,主要運用於路網中的交通流量預測並進行交通控制與管理,相關研究近年來皆持續發展。本研究應用流量模擬法模擬各單一起點到達多迄點流量(One-to-All flow simulation)進行非指派為基礎之動態旅次起迄比例值推估。模式主要特色:(1)單一起點流量模擬法提供額外路段流量資訊;(2)以迄點為基礎之周界線流量,提供僅利用起點偵測路段流量推估動態O-D比率之方法;(3)路徑旅行時間利用車輛軌跡檔,以起、迄點間最短路徑上所通過之車輛空間平均速度為計算之基準,適用於壅塞之路段以及市區號誌化路網。模式應用上,本研究建構三個路網進行模式應用與敏感度分析,包括:小路網、市區號誌化路網、市區與高速公路混合路網。結果顯示,模式於市區號誌化路網之均方根誤差(RMSE)值約為0.047,本研究所提出之動態旅次起迄推估模式具有合理之結果。
Time-dependent Origin-Destination (O-D) demand data is critical to the success of Dynamic Traffic Assignment in Advanced Traffic Management Systems (ATMS), and extensive research has been conducted in the past decade to tackle this problem. This research applies the One-to-All Flow Simulation method to generate the single origin to multiple destinations flows and aggregates simulated flows with detector flows to estimate possible O-D splits based on the non-assignment based model. The unique features of the model include: (1) the One-to-All Flow Simulation, which is utilized to calculate the O-D splits supplies the additional link counts data; (2) the destination-based Cordon-line supplies a method to estimate O-D splits with sparsely-distributed detectors. (3) the path travel time is calculated based on the space mean speed of all vehicles taking the shortest path from origins to destinations, suitable for congested links and a signalized urban network; Numerical experiments to illustrate the proposed model are conducted in three networks: a small test network, a signalized urban network and a mixed network, and several sensitivity analyses are performed. The numerical results show that the root mean square error (RMSE) of the signalized urban network is 0.047; the estimated O-D splits from the proposed model are reasonable and acceptable.
期刊論文
1.Cascetta, E.、Inaudi, D.、Marquis, G.(1993)。Dynamic Estimator of Origin-destination Matrices Using Traffic Counts。Transportation Science,27(4),363-373。  new window
2.Chang, G. L.、Tao, X.(1996)。Estimation of Dynamic Network O-D Distribution for Urban Networks。Transportation and Traffic Flow Theory,13,1-20。  new window
3.Chang, G. L.、Tao, X.(1999)。An Integrated Model for Estimating Time-varying Network Origin-destination Distribution。Transportation Research A,33(2),381-399。  new window
4.Chang, G. L.、Wu, J.(1994)。Recursive Estimation of Time-varying O-D Flows from Traffic Counts in Freeway Corridors。Transportation Research B,28(2),141-160。  new window
5.Lin, P. W.、Chang, G. L.(2005)。A Robust Model for Estimating Freeway Dynamic Origin-destination Matrix。Transportation Research Record,1923,110-118。  new window
6.Lin, P. W.、Chang, G. L.(2007)。A Generalized Model and Solution Algorithm for Estimation of the Dynamic Freeway Origin-destination Matrix。Transportation Research B,41(5),551-572。  new window
7.Chang, G. L.、Wu, J.(1996)。Estimation of Time-varying Origin-destination Distributions with Dynamic Screen-line Flows。Transportation Research B,30(4),277-290。  new window
8.卓訓榮、曾國雄、周幼珍、江勁毅(1997)。動態流量推估動態O-D方法之研究。運輸計劃季刊,26(4),615-638。new window  延伸查詢new window
9.Okutani, I.、Stephanedes, Y. J.(1984)。Dynamic Prediction of Traffic Volume through Kalman Filtering Theory。Transportation Research Part B: Methodological,18(1),1-11。  new window
10.Van Der Zijpp, N. J.、De Romph, E.。A Dynamic Traffic Forecasting Application on the Amsterdam Beltway。International Journal of Forecasting,13,87-103。  new window
11.Ashok, K.、Ben-Akiva, M.(1993)。Dynamic Origin-destination Matrix Estimation and Prediction for Real-time Traffic Management Systems。Transportation and Traffic Theory,25B(1),465-465。  new window
12.Ashok, K.、Ben-Akiva, M.(2000)。Alternative Approaches for Real-time Estimation and Prediction of Time-dependent Original-destination Flows。Transportation Science,34(1),21-36。  new window
13.Ashok, K.、Ben-Akiva, M.(2000)。Estimation and Prediction of Time-dependent Origion-destination Flows with a Stochastic Mapping to Path Flows and Link Flows。Transportation Science,36(2),184-198。  new window
14.Bell, M. G. H.(1991)。The Estimation of Origin-destination Matrices by Constrained Generalised Least Squares。Transportation Research B,25(1),13-22。  new window
15.Xu, W.、Chan, Y.(1993)。Estimating an Origin-destination Matrix with Fuzzy Weights。Transportation Planning and Technology,17,145-163。  new window
16.Sherali, H.、Park, T.(2001)。Estimation of Dynamic Origin-destination Trip Tables for a General Network。Transportation Research, Part B: Methodological,35,217-235。  new window
17.Zhou, X. S.、Erdoğan, S.、Mahmassani, H. S.(2006)。Dynamic Origin Destination Trip Demand Estimation for Subarea Analysis。Dynamic Origin Destination Trip Demand Estimation for Subarea Analysis,1964,176-184。  new window
18.Jayakrishnan, R.、Mahmassani, H. S.、Hu, T. Y.(1994)。DYNASMART: An Evaluation Tool for ATIS/ATMS in Urban Traffic Networks。Transportation Research C,2(3),129-147。  new window
19.Nihan, N. L.、Davis, G. A.(1987)。Recursive Estimation of Origin-destination Matrices from Input / Output Counts。Transportation Research B,21(2),149-163。  new window
研究報告
1.胡大瀛(2005)。區域級智慧型運輸系統示範計劃:核心交通分析與預測系統(第二年期)。臺北市:交通部運輸研究所。  延伸查詢new window
2.胡守任(2001)。智慧型運輸系統基礎理論系列研究(一)-濾波理論(Filtering Theory)應用於流量倒推旅次起迄量(O-D)及車流密度之推估。臺北市。  延伸查詢new window
3.胡大瀛(2004)。區域級智慧型運輸系統示範計劃:核心交通分析與預測系統(第一年期)。臺北市。  延伸查詢new window
學位論文
1.陳齊邦(2006)。高速公路動態旅行時間與旅次起迄推估之研究。  延伸查詢new window
2.Ashok, K.(1996)。Estimation and Prediction of Time-dependent Original-destination Flows,Cambridge, MA。  new window
3.Kang, Y.(1999)。Estimation and Prediction of Dynamic Origin-destination Demand and System Consistency for Real-time Dynamic Traffic Assignment,Austin, TX。  new window
4.Tavana, H.(2001)。Internally-consistent Estimation of Dynamic Network Origin-destination Flows from Intelligent Transportation Systems Data Using Bi-level Optimization,Austin, TX。  new window
其他
1.Dixon, P.,Rilett, L.(2000)。Real-time Origin-destination Estimation Using Automatic Vehicle Identification Data,Washington, DC。  new window
2.Etemadnia, H.,Abdelghany, K.(2009)。A Distributed Approach for Dynamic Origin Destination Demand Estimation,Washington, DC。  new window
3.Ben-Akiva(2003)。Development of a Deployable Real-time Dynamic Traffic Assignment System。  new window
 
 
 
 
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