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題名:中華職棒比賽勝負預測模式之建構
書刊名:體育學報
作者:施致平 引用關係黃蕙娟倪瑛蓮
作者(外文):Shih, Chih-pinHuang, Hui-chuanNi, Ying-lien
出版日期:2010
卷期:43:2
頁次:頁115-130
主題關鍵詞:中華職棒預測模式比賽勝負關鍵要素勝數比Chinese professional baseball leagueCPBLPrediction modelOutcomes of gamesKey factorOdds ratio
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
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  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(8) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:8
  • 共同引用共同引用:17
  • 點閱點閱:79
目的:本研究之主要目的在於辨識影響比賽勝負之關鍵要素,並建構職棒比賽勝負之預測模式。方法:本研究以中華職棒爲研究範圍,以第18年之對戰組合攻守紀錄爲研究主軸,運用文件分析與德爾菲法,建立影響中華職棒比賽勝負之影響因子,再用邏輯斯迴歸分析,建構中華職棒比賽勝負之預測模式。結果:一、影響中華職棒比賽勝負之關鍵預測要素,攻擊成績指標共計22項、投球成績指標32項、守備成績指標7項。二、影響攻擊勝負因子中,解釋力高低之因子分別爲得分、打數、打點、失誤、犧牲短打(p<.05)。再由勝數比分析發現,打數、失誤爲負面因子(odds ratio<1),其中又以失誤因子之勝數比最小(odds ratio=.577);而得分、打點及犧牲短打爲正向因子(odds ratio>1)。三、影響投球勝負因子中,解釋力高低之因子分別爲投球局數、面對打席、被安打、四壞球及自責分(p<.05)。再由勝數比分析發現,面對打席及自責分爲負面因子(odds ratio<1);而投球局數、被安打與四壞球爲正向因子(odds ratio>1)。結論:本研究結果可提供未來預測球賽勝算或球團編制戰力時,可參照攻擊與投球之預測指標,加強其戰力的提升。
Purpose: The purpose of this study was to construct prediction model for winning and losing of baseball games, and also differentiate the key factors of winning and losing. Method: The research area would mainly focus on Chinese Professional Baseball League (CPBL) and the eighteenth year scoreboard, using content analysis and Delphi research methods and building the factors that influenced the winning and losing of CPBL game. The statistics of logistic regression was used in the analysis in order to construct CPBL prediction model. Results: The results indicated that: 1. According to the expert opinions in this study, key factors which influenced the winning and losing of the game included 22 offensive items, 32 pitching items, and 7 defensive items. 2. Among the attribute factors of offensive, scoring had the highest explanation power which followed by runs, at bats, runner batted in, errors, and squeeze play (p<.05). According to the odds ratio analysis, it discovered that the odds ratio of at bats and errors were less than 1, which meant they were negative factors, and the least was the errors factor (odds ratio=.577). Odds ratio of runs, runner batted in, and squeeze play were larger than 1, which meant that they were positive factors. 3. Among the attribution factors of pitching, game had the highest explanation power which followed by inning pitched, hit batsmen, hits, base balled/walk, and earned runs (p<.05). According to the odds ratio analysis, it discovered that the odds ratio of hit batsmen and earned runs were less than 1, which meant that they were negative factors. Odds ratio of inning pitched, hits, and base balled/walk were larger than 1, which meant that they were positive factors. Conclusion: Based on the findings, hitting and batting predictive items would be a good reference for prediction of winning and losing, and also for team management to increase competitive ability.
期刊論文
1.林文斌(20041000)。運用資料包絡分析法評估2003年中華職棒大聯盟投手球員績效表現。大專體育學刊,6(3),119-131。new window  延伸查詢new window
2.李一中(1993)。術業有專攻。中華職業棒球雜誌,82,12。  延伸查詢new window
3.林文斌、陳一進、林進隆(20040600)。中華職棒大聯盟各野手球員相對績效評估:資料包絡分析法。運動知識學報,1,137-152。new window  延伸查詢new window
4.Yang, T. Y.、Swartz, T.(2004)。A two-stage bayesian model for predicting winners in major league baseball。Journal of Data Science,2(1),61-73。  new window
5.Richard, D. A.、Susan, J. K.(1994)。The effect of expertise on peak performance: the case of home-field advantage。Journal of Sport Behavior,17(2),108-119。  new window
6.李明憲(1997)。1997年我國兩個職棒聯盟各隊比賽結果成績紀錄之比較分析研究。光武學報,23,601-637。  延伸查詢new window
7.李明憲(1998)。1993至1995年我國六支職業棒球隊比賽結果各隊成績記錄之比較分析研究。光武學報,22,615-742。  延伸查詢new window
會議論文
1.林文斌、陳一進、蔡佳慧(2004)。運用資料包絡分析法(DEA)評估職棒兄弟象隊球員績效表現。臺南市。119-131。  延伸查詢new window
研究報告
1.陳國華(1980)。棒球打擊技術與理論之研究。臺北市:國立臺灣師範大學體育學會。  延伸查詢new window
2.施致平(2000)。中華職籃運動參與之預測模式 (計畫編號:NSC89-2413-H-003-012-S)。臺北市:行政院國家科學委員會。  延伸查詢new window
學位論文
1.張家綸(2008)。利用貝氏方法預測職業比賽之勝負--以台灣職棒為例(碩士論文)。真理大學。  延伸查詢new window
圖書
1.葉志仙、李明憲、朱峰亮、蔡宗諺、蔡瀚進(2003)。棒球聖經 : 棒球技術圖解剖析。臺北市:商周出版 : 城邦文化發行 : 農學總經銷。  延伸查詢new window
2.葉志仙(1995)。中、美職棒運動比賽成績記錄分析研究。臺北:一品文化事業有限公司。  延伸查詢new window
3.James, B.,、Henzler, J.(2002)。Win shares。Morton Grove, IL。  new window
4.中華職業棒球聯盟競技播報組(1995)。職棒六年紀錄年鑑。臺北市。  延伸查詢new window
5.施致平(1998)。體育運動、媒體與觀眾參與行為之相關研究:以中華職棒聯盟後援會會員為例。運動管理論文選輯第一輯。臺北市。  延伸查詢new window
 
 
 
 
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