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題名:金融危機之國際投資市場訊息傳遞效果研究
書刊名:多國籍企業管理評論
作者:林靜雯 引用關係施光訓 引用關係黃舒玲
作者(外文):Lin, Ching-wenShih, Kuang-hsunHuang, Shu-ling
出版日期:2009
卷期:3:1
頁次:頁189-203
主題關鍵詞:金融危機國際金融國際投資向量自我迴歸Financial crisisInternational financeCointegrationVector error correction modelVECM
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
相關次數:
  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(2) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:2
  • 共同引用共同引用:18
  • 點閱點閱:86
隨著全球資金流動的效率提高,市場資訊透明度增加,單一國家金融危機的發生對於國際金融市場間產生之連動效果成為學者關切的議題。近來一些研究指出,危機之所以很快傳遞到其他國家,除了存在外溢效果之外,同時存在的蔓延效果亦是主要的原因之一。本研究為了解台灣與美國股價連動性,及個股股價與其發行美國存託憑證關聯性,以Enron破產事件為劃分時點,採用向量自我迴歸(VAR)模型,探討樣本公司的美國存託憑證價格、普通股價格與台灣加權股價指數、那斯達克指數在重要金融危機後股市間的訊息傳遞效果。研究結果發現,以Enron破產事件為例,在重要金融危機前後,上述價格序列間均有長期穩定之均衡共整合關係;而在誤差修正檢定中,那斯達克指數對於台灣加權股價指數具有引導效果。此外,台美股市間呈現雙向回饋關係,投資人不僅考慮美國各大股價指數變動做為分析台股決策依據,亦考慮台股波動對於美股之影響。此外,雖然台積電與聯電都佔台灣加權股價指數很大的比例,但波動上也無法擺脫台灣加權股價指數影響,此結論可作為支持資產定價模型理論之實證。
With the increasing efficiency of capital flows around the globe and the enhancement of market information transparency, the impact of single-country financial crisis to international financial markets has become researched by many scholars. Some studies indicated that in addition to the spill-over effect, the contagion effect is also a major cause attributing to the quick spread of a crisis to other countries. In order to gain an understanding of the correlation of equity prices in Taiwan and the U.S. and the correlation between stocks and their corresponding ADRs, this paper adopts the VAR model by referring to the bankruptcy of Enron as the watershed to examine the signalling effects of ADR prices and ordinary share prices of sampled companies after major financial crises between TAIEX and NASDAQ Index. The results indicate that in the case of Enron's collapse, the abovementioned price series all exhibit long-term equilibrium cointegration relationships before and after the major financial crisis. According to error correction test, NASDAQ Index has leading effect on TAIEX. Meanwhile, there is a two-way feedback relationship between the equity markets in Taiwan and the U.S. Investors not only consider the equity indexes in the U.S. as the basis for analysis of investments in Taiwan's equities, but also the influence of the fluctuation of Taiwan's equities on the U.S. stocks. Although both TSMC and UMC account for a large portion of TAIEX, they are not immune to the fluctuations of TAIEX. This conclusion can serve as an empirical finding to support CAPM.
期刊論文
1.徐清俊、陳彥豪(20040600)。臺灣、日本、英國及美國公債市場動態關聯性之研究。運籌研究集刊,5,31-55。new window  延伸查詢new window
2.郭樂平(19981000)。美國高科技店頭市場指數--那斯達克綜合指數(Nasdaq Composite Index)與臺股電子股指數漲跌連動性之分析。臺北銀行月刊,28(10)=336,98-104。  延伸查詢new window
3.張巧宜(20030300)。美國與臺灣股價共移程度之研究--分數共整合之應用。東吳經濟商學學報,40,99-121。new window  延伸查詢new window
4.Akaike, H.(1974)。Markovian Representaition of Stochastic Processes and Its Application to the Analysis of Autoregressive Moving Average Process。Annuals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics,26,363-387。  new window
5.Foerster, S.、Karolyi, G. A.(1999)。The effects of market segmentation and illiquidity on asset prices: Evidence from foreign stock listing in the US。Journal of Finance,154,981-1013。  new window
6.Said, S. E.、Dickey, D. A.(1985)。Testing for Unit Root in Autoregression Moving Average Models of Unknown Order。Biometrika,71,599-607。  new window
7.徐清俊、吳明恒(2003)。美國、日本與台灣股票市場動態關係。遠東學報,22,265-282。  延伸查詢new window
8.黃營杉、李銘章(20050300)。臺灣母公司股票報酬與其ADR報酬間資訊傳遞之研究。東吳經濟商學學報,48,1-32。new window  延伸查詢new window
9.聶建中、李文傳、洪榆雲(20040700)。金融風暴前後對先進國家之股匯市連動關係變化影響。中華管理學報,5(2),19-35。new window  延伸查詢new window
10.Kim, M.、Szakmary, Andrew C.、Mathur, I.(2000)。Price Transmission Dynamics between ADRs and Their Underlying Foreign Securities。Journal of Banking and Finance,24(8),1359-1382。  new window
11.Granger, C. W. J.(1969)。Investigation Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-spectral Methods。Econometrica,37(3),424-438。  new window
12.Hamao, Y. R.、Masulis, R. W.、Ng, V. K.(1990)。Correlations in Price Changes and Volatility across International Stock Markets。The Review of Financial Studies,3(2),281-307。  new window
13.Schwarz, Gideon(1978)。Estimating the Dimension of a model。The Annals of Statistics,6(2),461-464。  new window
14.Engle, Robert F.、Yoo, Byung Sam(1987)。Forecasting and Testing in Co-Integrated Systems。Journal of Econometrics,35(1),143-159。  new window
15.Ljung, Greta M.、Box, George E. P.(1978)。On a Measure of Lack of Fit in Time Series Models。Biometrika,65(2),297-303。  new window
16.Johansen, Søren(1988)。Statistical Analysis of Cointegration Vectors。Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,12(2/3),231-254。  new window
17.聶建中、林景春、詹凱婷(20040900)。兩岸三地股價聯動性研究。輔仁管理評論,11(2),63-82。new window  延伸查詢new window
18.Engle, Robert F.、Granger, Clive W. J.(1987)。Cointegration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing。Econometrica,55(2),251-276。  new window
19.Granger, Clive William John、Newbold, Paul(1974)。Spurious Regressions in Econometrics。Journal of econometrics,2(2),111-120。  new window
20.Phillips, Peter C. B.、Perron, Pierre(1988)。Testing for a unit root in time series regression。Biometrika,75(2),335-346。  new window
21.Solnik, B. H.(1974)。The International Pricing: An Empirical Investigation of the World Capital Market Structure。Journal of Finance,29(2),365-378。  new window
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23.Sarkar, S.(2003)。The Effect of Mean Reversion on Investment Uncertainty。Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,28,377-396。  new window
會議論文
1.聶建中、姚蕙芸(2001)。空頭走勢期間台灣股票市場成交量與股價之關聯性研究1-18。  延伸查詢new window
學位論文
1.林青青(1999)。國際股市之漲跌對臺灣及東南亞各國股市的影響(碩士論文)。國立臺灣大學。  延伸查詢new window
2.游梓堯(2002)。美國股市與台灣股市關連性研究--VAR、GARCH與灰關聯分析之應用(碩士論文)。國立台灣科技大學。  延伸查詢new window
3.黃馨慧(2003)。台灣、日本、新加坡、韓國與美國股市關聯性之研究--VEC-TGARCH模型之應用-(碩士論文)。佛光人文社會學院。  延伸查詢new window
4.吳昭勳(2002)。美國存託憑證報酬與風險傳遞之研究(碩士論文)。國立中央大學。  延伸查詢new window
5.劉健欣(1999)。臺灣股市與美國股市關連性之實證研究(碩士論文)。淡江大學。  延伸查詢new window
 
 
 
 
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