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題名：消費券政策之總體經濟效果分析
書刊名：農業與經濟
作者：黃琝琇 引用關係／林建甫 引用關係
作者(外文)：Huang, Wen-hsiu／Lin, Jeff Chien-fu
出版日期：2009
卷期：43
頁次：頁81-121
主題關鍵詞：政府支出；移轉性支出；消費券；總體計量模型；Government expenditure；Transfer payments；Consumption vouchers；Macro-Econometric model
原始連結：連回原系統網址new window
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  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(0) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
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  • 共同引用共同引用:27
  • 點閱點閱:55
2008年金融海嘯重創全球經濟，台灣政府在景氣低迷之際，採行在國內未曾實施的消費券政策，欲藉由刺激消費以達到提振景氣的目的。政策推出即引起各界廣泛討論，主要的爭議仍是在消費券發放能誘發多少消費？對振興經濟的效果有多少？因此，本文建立－總體經濟計量模型，探討2009年政府以移轉性支出方式，發放消費券振興經濟之總體效果，並模擬分析不同政策的情境。模擬結果顯示，相較於政府投資與政府消費而言，消費券政策對提升經濟成長的效果較爲有限，第一年約提升經濟成長率0.21%，並在改善所得分配方面較有助益。至於，政府投資與政府消費雖能在第一年有較高的經濟成長，但自第二年後卻反有負向效果；其次，針對消費券實施期間長短的效果比較，發現實施期間縮短使經濟成長較高，但實施期間拉長，家戶的邊際消費傾向較大；最後，比較消費券以租稅與債務融通的效果，發現租稅融通對刺激經濟成長效果較大，此突顯出預算平衡對國民經濟的重要性。
This paper analyzes the effects of consumption vouchers policy on Taiwan economy. The consumption vouchers policy is a type of government transfer, and aims at stimulating domestic demand and economic growth. According to the simulations, we have three findings: first, compare to the government investment and consumption, the transfer payments are ineffective in raising economic growth, but effective in improving income distribution. Second, when consumption vouchers policy is implemented in a shorter period, the effects of stimulating economic growth are better. Thirdly, accounting of the effects of different methods to finance the consumption vouchers plan, the tax-financed transfers can raise economic growth much higher than the debt-financed transfers. This indicates the budget balance is important to enhance economic growth.
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會議論文
1.何金巡、周麗芳、林建甫、許振明(2006)。臺灣所得分配與經濟成長的總體經濟計量分析。臺北。  延伸查詢new window
研究報告
1.Hori, M.、Hsieh, C. T.、Murata, K.、Shimizutani, S.(2002)。Did the Shopping Coupon Program Stimulate Consumption? Evidence from Japanese Micro Data。  new window
2.Macellino, M.(2002)。Some Stylized Facts on Non-systematic Fiscal Policy in the Euro Area。  new window
3.Seidman, L.、Lewis, K.(2004)。Transfers Plus Open Market Purchases: A Remedy for Recession。  new window
學位論文
1.林立權(2008)。台灣總體計量模型之政府政策探討(碩士論文)。國立臺灣大學。  延伸查詢new window
圖書
1.Fair, R.(1984)。Specification, estimation, and analysis of macroeconometric models。Cambridge：Harvard University Press。  new window
2.Keynes, John M.(1936)。The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money。London, UK：A Harbinger Book：Palgrave Macmillan。  new window
3.Friedman, Milton(1957)。A Theory of the Consumption Function。Princeton, New Jersey：Princeton University Press。  new window
4.Bailey, Martin J.(1971)。National Income and the Price Level: A Study in Macroeconomic Theory。National Income and the Price Level: A Study in Macroeconomic Theory。New York, NY。  new window
5.Engle, R. F.、Hendry, D. F.(1989)。Testing Superexogeneity。Testing Superexogeneity。San Diego, CA。  new window
6.Fair, Ray C.(1994)。Testing Macroeconometric Models。Testing Macroeconometric Models。Cambridge, MA。  new window
其他
1.Fatas, A.，Mihov, I.(2001)。The Effects of Fiscal Policy on Consumption and Employment: Theory and Evidence。  new window
 
 
 
 
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